As a result of the oil price plunge, the major oil-exporting countries are facing budget deficits for the first time in years. This column goes through the evidence, suggesting that the low price environment is likely to test the relationship between governments in oil-exporting countries and their sovereign wealth funds, at a time when spending is going up.
After more than five years, negotiations surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have finally been concluded. Yet, there is a lot that needs to be done before the agreement comes into force, and there is no certainty that it will. This column examines what TPP has achieved so far, what it has still not achieved, and the next steps involved, including the likely fate of the agreement itself.
Europe is experiencing an unprecedented inflow of immigrants. Casual observation suggests that far-right parties could benefit from voters’ worries about this inflow. This update to a column from September 2012 provides empirical evidence showing that the geographic proximity of immigrants is one important causal driver behind support for the far right. The link with voting outcomes depends on the type of immigration, however, not just on the total number of immigrants.
Recent studies have established a causal link between trade and rising wage inequality. This column suggests there is also a pro-poor bias of trade. In moving from autarky to trade, the relative prices of goods consumed intensively by the poor, such as food, fall more. The gains from opening to trade are estimated at 63% for the 10th percentile of the income distribution and 28% for the 90th percentile.
The fallout from the Global Crisis and its aftermath has been deeply damaging for European output. This column uses a growth accounting framework to explore the pre-Crisis and post-Crisis growth dynamics of several European countries. The weakness of post-Crisis real GDP in the Eurozone manifested itself in a decline in employment and average hours worked. However, decomposing growth for the Eurozone as a whole conceals significant differences across European countries, in both real GDP growth and its factor inputs.
Other Recent Columns:
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- Evidence that low real rates will persist
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- The UK productivity puzzle: The Trojan horse
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- The anti-poor effects of large exchange rate devaluations
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