The Basel III countercyclical capital buffer framework obliges nations to set appropriate capital buffer rates for their bank’s credit exposure at home and in third countries. This column proposes criteria for selecting these third countries. The idea is to focus only on the third-country exposures that, firstly, could jeopardise stability of the domestic banking sector and, secondly, can be actually addressed by means of the policy. Variables and thresholds to operationalise this idea are proposed.
This year’s IMF conference, “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy III”, gathered many of the world’s greatest economists to reflect on the state of post-Global Crisis macroeconomics. This column, which presents remarks by the IMF’s Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, argues that much detailed work has been done. The trenches are being dug, but we still do not have a good sense of their final destination.
Credits extended bilaterally between firms, so called trade credits, are particularly expensive yet many firms use it, especially for international transactions. This column argues that such cash-in-advance financing serves as a credible signal of quality. Data from a unique survey of German firms show that it fosters export participation in particular for firms that tend to have the greatest difficulties in entering foreign markets.
The inflow of low-skilled migrants may encourage natives to upgrade their skills, taking advantage of immigrant-native complementarity. This column uses exogenous dispersion of refugees in Denmark to investigate this issue. The findings confirm that for low-skilled native workers, the presence of refugee-country immigrants spurred mobility and increased specialisation into complex jobs.
Business investment in advanced economies contracted sharply during the global crisis and has recovered little since. This column argues that the main factor holding back investment is overall economomic weakness. In some countries other contributing factors include financial constraints and policy uncertainty. Fixing the investment dearth will require fixing the general weakness in economic activity.
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