vox

An equilibrium model of the African HIV/AIDS epidemic

Jeremy Greenwood, Philipp Kircher, Cezar Santos, Michèle Tertilt, 25 May 2013

How can we accurately model the African HIV/AIDS epidemic? This column presents new research that uses computational general equilibrium models to map the spread of HIV/AIDS. Emphasising the importance of understanding behavioural adjustments and equilibrium effects, this new way of modelling the epidemic may well prove a useful tool for further research.

Are Germans poorer than other Europeans? The principal Eurozone differences in wealth and income

Giovanni D'Alessio, Romina Gambacorta, Giuseppe Ilardi, 24 May 2013

The ECB’s recent survey on household finances and consumption threw up some unexpected results – counter-intuitively, the average German household has less wealth than the average Mediterranean household. In line with a recent VoxEU.org contribution from De Grauwe and Ji, this article analyses the principal differences in wealth and income between the main Eurozone countries.

The case for 4% inflation

Laurence Ball, 24 May 2013

Since the double-digit inflation of the 1970s, central banks have sought to reduce inflation and keep it low. This column argues that recent history teaches us that inflation has fallen too low. Raising inflation targets to 4% would have little cost, and it would make it easier for central banks to end future recessions.

The banking crisis as a giant carry trade gone wrong

Viral Acharya, Sascha Steffen, 23 May 2013

A pernicious aspect of the Eurozone crisis is the ‘doom loop’ linking European banks and governments. This column argues that poor European policy choices in the wake of the 2008 Global Crisis worsened the problem. Rather than being forcefully recapitalised as in the US and UK, many Eurozone banks were left undercapitalised and free to gamble for redemption. In what may be the greatest carry trade ever, they borrowed cheap, first in short-term debt markets and then from the ECB, to invest in high-yield but risky sovereign debt. Substantial bank recapitalisations against sovereign-bond losses is the way forward.

Service-sector reforms enhance manufacturing productivity: Evidence from Indonesia

Victor Duggan, Sjamsu Rahardja, Gonzalo Varela, 22 May 2013

The ‘manufacturing matters’ movement has gained prominence on the policy agenda even as the nature of manufacturing continues to morph. This column discusses new research showing that opening service sectors to competition and foreign direct investment can be a powerful conduit for productivity gains in manufacturing. The gains depend on both the types of reforms and the specific services sectors in which these are implemented.