The probability of Greek exit, revisited

Jens Nordvig 17 December 2012

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Fears about a Greek exit from the Eurozone reached a peak around May 2012. At the time, the first round of the Greek election gave the populist Syriza party enough support for it to block the formation of reform and a bailout-friendly government.

How much people focus on the risk of a Greek exit at any given point in time can be quantified by tracking the volume of news reporting on the issue. Figure 1 shows a specific metric derived from counting news stories on the Bloomberg system.

Figure 1 Frequency of “Greek exit” in the news

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions

Tags:  Greece, Eurozone crisis, exit

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