The real wage–productivity nexus
Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry 13 January 2014
During the Great Recession, UK real wages have fallen rather than the usual unemployment reaction. Nevertheless, this column argues that a structural break in the wage inflation/unemployment trade-off has not occurred. There has been a constant relationship between real wages and productivity since 1860. The key to the constancy is to the joint modelling of dynamics, location shifts, relevant variables and non-linearities.
The Great Recession has produced falling real wages (Elsby et al. 2013). There has not been the ‘usual’ unemployment reaction. As such, it may seem that the wage inflation/unemployment trade-off has shifted. Our recent work suggests otherwise (Castle and Hendry 2013).
Labour markets Productivity and Innovation
productivity, real wages, wage inflation