Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? The 16th Geneva Report on the World Economy

Luigi Buttiglione, Philip Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin, Vincent Reinhart

29 September 2014

a

A

Table of contents

1 Introduction

1.1 Motivation and main conclusions
1.2 Leverage: What we mean by it and why it matters
1.3 Guide to the report

2 Global debt analysis: Deleveraging? What deleveraging?

3 Leverage cycles and the poisonous combination of rising leverage and slowing growth

3.1 Leverage cycles and debt capacity
3.2 A poisonous combination of high leverage and slower output
Appendix 3A: The Leverage cycle
Appendix 3B: Debt capacity

4 Case studies

4.1 The United States
4.2 Eurozone: A policy problem
4.3 Emerging markets: The next crisis?

5 Policy issues 75

5.1 What have we learnt from past crises?
5.2 Policy options. Where are we now?

6 Discussions

Morning discussion
Afternoon discussion