Forward Guidance: Perspectives from Central Bankers, Scholars and Market Participants

Wouter den Haan

23 October 2013

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Table of Contents

Foreword

Introduction
Wouter den Haan

Part I: Central Bankers on Forward Guidance: Description and Motivation

Forward Guidance and the ECB
Peter Praet

Forward Guidance in the UK
Spencer Dale and James Talbot

Forward Policy Guidance at the Federal Reserve
John C Williams

The Bank of Japan’s Current Monetary Easing and Forward Guidance
Sayuri Shirai

Monetary policy and forward guidance in the UK
David Miles

Part II: Empirics and Economic Theory on Forward Guidance

Low for How Long? Estimating the ECB’s “Extended Period of Time”
Tilman Bletzinger and Volker Wieland

Odyssean Forward Guidance in Monetary Policy: A Primer
Jeffrey R Campbell

The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni and Christina Patterson

The Value of Forward-Looking Communication
Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi

Part III: Improving the Implementation of Forward Guidance

Complete Forward Guidance
Richard Barwell and Jagjit S. Chadha

Effective Forward Guidance: Scrupulous Central Bankers and Forecast Contracts
Hans Gersbach and Volker Hahn

Part IV: Criticism

Forward Guidance in the UK: Holding Rates Down till Something Happens
David Cobham

Debating the Merits of Forward Guidance
Charles Goodhart

Forward Guidance: A Central Bank Watcher’s Perspective
Paul Sheard

A Long and Bumpy Journey ahead for Forward Guidance
Kazuo Ueda

Events