The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?

Bernard Hoekman 24 June 2015

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Part One: Introduction

Trade and growth – end of an era?
Bernard Hoekman

1 World trade and production: A long-run view
Douglas A Irwin

Part Two: Determinants of the slowdown

2 The global trade slowdown
Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo and Michele Ruta

3 Recent slowdown in global trade: Cyclical or structural?
Emine Boz, Matthieu Bussière and Clément Marsilli

4 Does the post-Crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?
Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus

5 The power of the few in determining trade accelerations and slowdowns
Guillaume Gaulier, Gianluca Santoni, Daria Taglioni and Soledad Zignago

Part Three: GVCs, gravity and peak trade

6 Global value chains and the trade-income relationship: Implications for the recent trade slowdown
Byron Gangnes, Alyson C Ma and Ari Van Assche

7 World trade and income remain exposed to gravity
Hubert Escaith and Sébastien Miroudot

8 A value-added trade perspective on recent patterns in world trade
Paul Veenendaal, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Arjan Lejour and Henk Kox

9 On the gravity of world trade’s slowdown
Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger, Sébastien Jean

Part Four: East Asian perspectives and the China factor

10 The relationship between trade and economic growth and a slowdown of exports in Korea
Taeho Bark

11 Growth and structural change in trade: Evidence from Japan
Koji Ito and Ryuhei Wakasugi

12 The global trade slowdown: Lessons from the East Asian electronics industry
Willem Thorbecke

13 China’s trade flows: Some conjectures
Menzie D Chinn

14 Trade impact of China’s transition to the ‘new normal’
Jiansuo Pei, Cuihong Yang and Shunli Yao

Part Five: Policy perspectives

15 Crisis-era trade distortions cut LDC export growth by 5.5% per annum
Simon J. Evenett and Johannes Fritz

16 Trade growth prospects: An African perspective
Ottavia Pesce, Stephen Karingi and Isabelle Gebretensaye

17 ‘Peak trade’ in the steel sector
Simon J. Evenett and Johannes Fritz

18 Supporting the micro-multinationals to help achieve peak trade
Usman Ahmed, Brian Bieron and Hanne Melin

19 Bold political leadership and vision can unlock global trade growth
Amgad Shehata

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