Frontiers of economic research
GDP can be estimated by measuring either expenditure or income. Since a penny spent is a penny earned, both methods should give the same answer, but there is substantial measurement error in both estimates. This column presents a new method of measuring US GDP that blends these two estimates. According to the new measure, GDP growth is about twice as persistent as the current headline measure implies. The new measure also makes the current recovery look stronger, especially in 2013.
Retrospective voting – voting for incumbents if one’s situation has improved under the politician’s watch – is a well-established pattern. This column shows that this pattern also applies when ‘improvement’ is measured by a subjective measure of well-being. Among the stark results discussed is the finding that newly widowed women are 10% less likely to be pro-incumbent than the control group.
Academics are subject to new types of evaluations. In the UK this is done via the Research Excellence Framework (REF). This column discusses some of the shortcomings of the REF and the methods individual papers are ranked. New evaluations and requirements change the incentives of economists and can affect their research – sometimes not for the better.
New micro-level data sets allow better testing of existing and new hypotheses on how banks operate in the often challenging environment of emerging markets. This column introduces an eBook that reports on the findings of a recent conference in London on using different research methodologies and data sources in banking research.
The rules of sports are complex and involve the interaction of many self-interested agents. This column uses game theory to analyse the rules of the qualification tournament in the UEFA zone for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. It shows that cases could arise where a team would have to avoid winning to advance. It also lays out the general intuition for thinking about how rules misalign incentives in sport tournaments.
Other Recent Articles:
- Recasting international income differences: The next-generation Penn World Table
- Removing deadweight loss from economic discourse on income taxation and public spending
- Ranking wines using the Shapley value
- Politics 2.0: Short-run and long-run effects of broadband internet on political participation
- Climate, ecosystem resilience, and the slave trade
- Doing Business – less icing, more cake!
- Effective aid in conflict zones
- Views among economists: Are economists really so divided?
- Communication by the European Central Bank: Inconsistent, yet effective?
- Gender equality and economic growth: A framework for policy analysis
- Do entrepreneurs matter?
- Social multiplier versus social norms: What matters most for outcomes?
- Voting theory and Papal conclave
- The decoupling of the US and European economies: Evidence from nowcasting
- The past in the Polish present
- Can passenger railways curb road-traffic externalities? Empirical evidence
- Wine tasting: Is 'terroir' a joke and/or are wine experts incompetent?
- Ageing and productivity: Economists and others
- From the persecuting to the protective state? Jewish expulsions and weather shocks from 1100 to 1800
- Information asymmetry raises the cost of capital for corporations
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
Adelman, 28 October 2013
Reichlin, Giugliano, 7 November 2013