Charles Wyplosz talks to Viv Davies about the recent Special Geneva Report, ‘The PADRE Plan: politically acceptable debt restructuring in the Eurozone’, co-authored with Pierre Pâris and published jointly by CEPR and ICMB. Wyplosz explains how debt restructuring can be managed in a safe way, why it would not have an inflationary effect and how moral hazard could be mitigated, if not eliminated. The interview was recorded in January 2014.
The euro has appreciated sharply since July 2012. This column introduces a CEPR Policy Insight which argues that the strong euro is not the result of a ‘currency war’. The Eurozone suffers from an overly restrictive monetary policy. The sooner the ECB adopts a more aggressive monetary stance, the sooner the recovery will take hold. Easier Eurozone monetary conditions will lead to a temporarily depreciated euro, which will support aggregate economic activity and help inflation stay close to 2%.
The Eurozone will either struggle for decades with very high public debts, or it will restructure. This column introduces a new Geneva Special Report on the World Economy arguing that the restructuring option is workable and preferable. The plan – dubbed PADRE – would substantially lower EZ nations’ debts without cross-nation transfers and with limited moral hazard. The financing is simple. Each EZ member’s debt is reduced by the securitisation of its own share of ECB seignorage.
The global economy seems to be on the mend. In this column, IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard provides a quick overview of the likely developments. The key points are that the recovery is happening as expected, but it remains fragile and uneven across major economies. Normalising monetary policy poses risks for vulnerable emerging markets and deflation is a real concern for the Eurozone.
Nicholas Crafts talks to Viv Davies about his recent work on the threatening issue of public debt in the Eurozone. Crafts maintains that the implicit fault line in the EZ is evident; several EZ economies face a long period of fiscal consolidation and low growth and that a different sort of central bank might be preferable. They also discuss the challenges and constraints of banking, fiscal and federal union. The interview was recorded in London on 17 January 2014.
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