http://www.VoxEU.org Recent Richard Baldwin articles on VoxEU.org en http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/9217 Richard Baldwin, Daniel Gros, 17 April 2013

The Bank of Japan has now joined the club of central banks practising a new, post-Crisis form of inflation targeting. This column discusses the new goals, new tools and new challenges of ‘augmented inflation targeting’. Despite economists’ worries and the many unknowns ahead, there really is no alternative in a post-Crisis world. Augmented inflation targeting is here to stay.

Full Article: Augmented inflation targeting: Le roi est mort, vive le roi]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/9217 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/9212 Richard Baldwin, Lucrezia Reichlin, 14 April 2013

Inflation targeting did not prevent financial instability before the Crisis nor did it provide sufficient stimulus after the Crisis. In this eBook, 14 world-renowned scholars, practitioners and market participants analyse inflation targeting and its future. They argue that inflation targeting should be refined not replaced. Indeed, it is needed now more than ever to keep expectations anchored while the advanced economies work their way through today’s slow growth, rickety banks, and over-indebted public sectors.

Full Article: Is inflation targeting dead? Central Banking After the Crisis]]> Sun, 14 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/9212 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/9213 Richard Baldwin, Lucrezia Reichlin, 14 April 2013

Inflation targeting did not prevent financial instability before the Crisis nor did it provide sufficient stimulus after the Crisis. In a new Vox eBook, 14 world-renowned scholars, practitioners and market participants analyse inflation targeting and its future. They argue that inflation targeting should be refined not replaced. Indeed, it is needed now more than ever to keep expectations anchored while the advanced economies work their way through today’s slow growth, rickety banks, and over-indebted public sectors.

Full Article: Is inflation targeting dead? Central banking after the Crisis]]> Sun, 14 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/9213 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8847 Richard Baldwin, 22 December 2012

The world of international commerce has changed radically over the past years due to the rise of supply-chain trade. This column argues that the WTO has not kept up with the need for new rules governing the intertwining of trade, investment, intellectual property, and service. Bring these rules to the multilateral level will require the establishment of a new international organisation – a ‘WTO 2.0’.

Full Article: WTO 2.0: Thinking ahead on global trade governance]]> Sat, 22 Dec 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8847 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8856 Richard Baldwin, 22 December 2012

CEPR Policy Insight No 64 argues that adapting world trade governance to the realities of supply-chain trade will require a new organisation – a WTO 2.0 as it were.

Full Article: WTO 2.0: Global governance of supply-chain trade ]]> Sat, 22 Dec 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8856 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8402 Richard Baldwin, 29 August 2012

The democratisation of economic research takes a new step next week as the Nobel Symposia webcast important seminars on development and climate. This column provides the necessary links.

Full Article: Technology, academic debate and the inner circle]]> Wed, 29 Aug 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8402 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8166 Richard Baldwin, 28 June 2012

Since its launch in June 2007, VoxEU.org has been propelled forwards by world-class economists writing research-based policy analysis and commentary on the world’s most pressing topics. This supply has been fortuitously met with a surging demand for more sophisticated analysis. Readership has tripled since Vox’s first birthday; now we regularly get over three million page views per month. As it turns out, economists around the world were looking for something more than what is usually found on blogs and newspapers.

Full Article: Vox is five years old this month]]> Thu, 28 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8166 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8071 Richard Baldwin, Daria Taglioni, 10 June 2012

Global value chains are transforming world trade patterns. This column argues that the standard gravity formulation cannot be applied to trade flows where parts and components are important. This is because GDPs in origin and destination countries are poor proxies for supply and demand for parts and components. It shows that the standard model performs poorly on such flows and suggests an alternative specification.

Full Article: A gravity model for global value chains]]> Sun, 10 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8071 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8040 Richard Baldwin, 30 May 2012

In the late 1980s, developing nations that had eschewed all forms of liberalisation began to cut their import tariffs unilaterally. This column explains how the communication-technology revolution was the shock that altered the political-economy equilibrium against infant-industry protection and in favour of joining international supply chains which involved tariff liberalisation.

Full Article: Unilateral tariff liberalisation]]> Wed, 30 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8040 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8020 Richard Baldwin, Toshihiro Okubo, 24 May 2012

New-paradigm globalisation – driven by lower coordination costs rather than trade costs – is changing the nature of international commerce, the political economy of trade liberalisation, the nature of trade agreements and much more. This column, using data on Japanese multinationls, presents evidence that the nature of FDI is also changing away from the traditional classification of ‘horizontal’ or ‘vertical’.

Full Article: New-paradigm globalisation and networked FDI: Evidence from Japan]]> Thu, 24 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8020 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8237 Richard Baldwin, David Vines, 23 April 2012

This eReport collects a dozen essays by world-class scholars on the full range of global governance issues including macroeconomics, finance, trade, and migration. These reflect the research of nine research teams working in an EU-funded project known as PEGGED (Politics, Economics and Global Governance: the European Dimensions).

Full Article: Rethinking Global Governance in Light of the Crisis: New Perspectives on Economic Policy Foundations]]> Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8237 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/7864 Richard Baldwin, 10 April 2012

The five finalists of the £250,000 EZ breakup contest were announced last week; only one has a graduate degree in economics. This column argues that three are amateurish efforts full of economic and factual errors. European economists should take such ignorance seriously. Failure to do so in the US allowed odious ideas to gain respectability.

Full Article: The EZ breakup contest: Take ignorance seriously]]> Tue, 10 Apr 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/7864 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/7805 Richard Baldwin, 30 March 2012

Risk-taking by banks played a critical role in the global crisis and Eurozone crisis. This column introduces a new eReport that focuses on four aspects of excessive risk-taking by banks, highlighting the causes and the cures. The eReport applies the best available theory and data, bringing together the main insights and views that have emerged from the crisis.

Full Article: Excessive risk-taking by banks: A new eReport]]> Fri, 30 Mar 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/7805 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/7744 Richard Baldwin, 20 March 2012

VoxEU welcomes the latest member of the Vox consortium – RIETI – that provides policy-relevant research and commentary on Japanese and global issues. Launched in April 2011, RIETI’s ‘columns&essays’ series hopes to become a major resource for economists, policymakers, and journalists with an interest in Japan, Asia, and the Japanese perspective on global issues.

Full Article: Vox Consortium welcomes RIETI–Hi-Stat: English language commentary and analysis from a Japanese perspective]]> Tue, 20 Mar 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/7744 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/7176 Richard Baldwin, 28 October 2011

Markets loved the EZ rescue. This column argues that it was short-term good news in that it defused ‘the bomb’ – the possible catastrophe vortex of failing banks and defaulting sovereigns. The bad news is that it will induce a recession. Banks will create a credit crunch in trying to meet capital adequacy ratios, and the new austerity will create a fiscal contraction. The recession will weaken banks, sovereigns, and Greece. We’ll be needing another crisis summit by Spring 2012.

Full Article: EZ rescue or recession? Fallout of the October 2011 package]]> Fri, 28 Oct 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/7176 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6942 Richard Baldwin, 5 September 2011

The Eurozone crisis moved into phase 2 this August when the contagion spread to Italian debt, Spanish debt, and most EZ banks. Radical ECB actions prevented a disaster. This column argues that the ECB emergency policies are unsustainable politically and perhaps legally. The only policy combination that EZ leaders could agree on quickly enough involves political cover for ECB bond buying in exchange for national fiscal reforms of the German “debt brake” type.

Full Article: Welcome to phase 2 of the Eurozone (EZ) crisis]]> Mon, 05 Sep 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6942 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6573 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 28 May 2011

After 10 years of much progress and much frustration with the Doha Round, it is time to find a new approach to bring the negotiations to a successful conclusion. This essay argues that success would require four things implemented simultaneously: i) a Doha down-payment package agreed this year, ii) an understanding of how to reorganise continuing talks on the most contentious issues, iii) commencement of a WTO work programme on 21st-century trade issues, and iv) a bold initiative by middle power WTO members to try to unblock the talks.

Full Article: Keeping the WTO on track: A Doha down payment plus more]]> Sat, 28 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6573 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6576 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 28 May 2011

This VoxEU eBook aims to inform options for resolving the Doha Round dilemma by gathering the views of some of the world’s most experienced Doha experts. All agree that moving past the crisis will require creative thinking about work-around solutions that avoid acrimony and lock in some of the progress to date.

Full Article: Next Steps: Getting Past the Doha Round Crisis]]> Sat, 28 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6576 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6583 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 28 May 2011

World leaders must make important decisions concerning the future of the Doha Round for the 31 May 2011 meeting of the WTO membership. This essay introduces the issues and summarises contributors’ suggestions for “Next Steps”. It argues that the best outcome would be for WTO members to agree to work towards a small package of deliverables for December 2011 and push the rest of the agenda items into the future – perhaps with specific instructions for changing the basic negotiating protocols used to date.

Full Article: Introduction]]> Sat, 28 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6583 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6595 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 28 May 2011

The Doha Round poses a dilemma for world leaders; the talks cannot be completed this year, but there is no agreement among WTO members on either suspending or killing the Round. This column introduces the latest VoxEU eBook, which gathers the thoughts of some of the world’s most experienced trade negotiators on what comes next. Indonesia's trade minister and former WTO Ambassadors from the US, China, India, Canada and Hong Kong each provide a plan for getting past the Doha crisis.

Full Article: Next steps for the Doha Round: Introducing a new eBook]]> Sat, 28 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6595 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6540 Richard Baldwin, 23 May 2011

How will global trade governance evolve in the 21st century? This column introduces a new CEPR Policy Insight arguing that 1) trade today is radically more complex than last century 2) 21st century trade demands are currently being met by “21st century regionalism”, not the WTO, and 3) this regionalism has quite different implications for world trade than the traditional thinking suggests.

Full Article: 21st century regionalism and global trade governance]]> Mon, 23 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6540 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6542 Richard Baldwin, 23 May 2011

How will global trade evolve in the 21st century? CEPR Policy Insight 56 points to a new way of thinking about regionalism - specifically, its economic implications, its political economy determinants, and its impact on the world trade system and the WTO.

Full Article: 21st Century Regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rule]]> Mon, 23 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6542 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6518 Richard Baldwin, 17 May 2011

Most observers in Geneva expect the Doha round to fail. If that happens, this column argues that the prospects for US market-access policy will be grim. New multilateral tariff cutting is unlikely before 2020 and special interest groups in the US will hold back free trade agreements, leaving the country to fall behind in the bilateral market-access game.

Full Article: Is America mis-thinking its 21st century trade strategy? Part 2]]> Tue, 17 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6518 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6516 Richard Baldwin, 16 May 2011

Two decades of spectacular growth and industrialisation in emerging economies has transformed the world economy, presenting US trade policy with new challenges. This is the first of two columns that consider one aspect of the new challenges – the ways in which the Obama Administration can secure better access for American exporters.

Full Article: Is America mis-thinking its 21st century trade strategy? Part 1]]> Mon, 16 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6516 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6415 Richard Baldwin, 28 April 2011

America’s best chance at getting better access to the world’s fastest growing economies is on the table – it is called the Doha Round. The US should push hard for a conclusion as the alternatives are much worse. The US faces great domestic and foreign problems in pursuing the regionalism alterative. In particular, US faith in the Trans-Pacific Partnership seems to be based on unclear thinking about political constraints at home and political reactions abroad.

Full Article: The US is painting itself into a corner on 21st century trade policy]]> Thu, 28 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6415 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6433 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 28 April 2011

On 29 April 2011 WTO members gather in Geneva to determine the future of the Doha Round multilateral trade negotiations. The authors in this volume – trade experts from across the world – identify the perils of allowing Doha to flounder, and the hard choices governments must make to break the current deadlock.

Full Article: Why World Leaders Must Resist the False Promise of a Doha Delay]]> Thu, 28 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6433 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6435 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 28 April 2011

This column summarises the arguments in the latest eBook. If the Doha deadlock is to be broken this year, US and Chinese leaders must find more room for compromise by loosening their domestic political constrains. To do this, they must challenge the premise on which the deadlock is based – the view held by special interest groups that Doha is mostly about tariff cuts. These narrow special interests should not be allowed to jeopardise the world trading system and the benefits Doha would bring to all nations. This is critical; the eBook argues that if Doha fails this year, it can’t be done before 2020.

Full Article: Why world leaders must resist the false promise of another Doha delay: Introduction to the issues]]> Thu, 28 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6435 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6436 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 28 April 2011

If the Doha deadlock is to be broken this year, US and Chinese leaders must find more room for compromise by loosening their domestic political constrains. To do this, they must challenge the premise on which the deadlock is based – the view held by special interest groups that Doha is mostly about tariff cuts. These narrow special interests should not be allowed to jeopardise the world trading system and the benefits Doha would bring to all nations. This is critical; the eBook argues that if Doha fails this year, it can’t be done before 2020.

Full Article: Introducing a new eBook: Why world leaders must resist the false promise of another Doha delay]]> Thu, 28 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6436 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8178 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 28 April 2011

On 29 April 2011 WTO members gather in Geneva to determine the future of the Doha Round multilateral trade negotiations. The authors in this volume – trade experts from across the world – identify the perils of allowing Doha to flounder, and the hard choices governments must make to break the current deadlock.

Full Article: Why World Leaders Must Resist the False Promise of a Doha Delay]]> Thu, 28 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8178 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6184 Richard Baldwin, 9 March 2011

VoxEU welcomes the latest member of the Vox consortium – Vox.LACEA – that provides policy relevant research and commentary on Latin America and the Caribbean. Launched in January, it hopes to become a major resource for economists, policymakers, and journalists with an interest in the economies of the region.

Full Article: Welcome to Vox.LACEA – our new consortium member in Latin America and the Caribbean]]> Wed, 09 Mar 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6184 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6073 Richard Baldwin, 4 February 2011

The financial crisis and the ensuing recession have prompted reappraisals of macroeconomic theory. This column introduces Policy Insight No 53 authored by Axel Leijonhuvd that argues that it is time to stop thinking of the macroeconomy as an electrical circuit; we must think of an economy as an “open system” and adapt our methods to the nature of the economy.

Full Article: How to become better macroeconomists: Leijonhufvud’s new Policy Insight]]> Fri, 04 Feb 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6073 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6066 Richard Baldwin, 28 January 2011

The Doha Round is likely to conclude this year, as a burst of political leadership by G20 and APEC nations and deft diplomacy by the WTO have spurred talks that are rapidly narrowing the remaining gaps. This column reviews the progress and highlights what more is needed based on a newly released report written by the High Level Trade Experts Group.

Full Article: Global trade talks: Doha is doable this year]]> Fri, 28 Jan 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/6066 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5974 Richard Baldwin, 25 December 2010

Vox takes its annual break between 25 December 2010 and 2 January 2011. This column documents the coevolution of VoxEU and the global economic crisis since June 2007. It also highlights a few columns that readers should read (or re-read) in preparation for the Eurozone’s next crisis.

Full Article: Vox’s annual break and some holiday reading tips]]> Sat, 25 Dec 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5974 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5893 Giuliano Amato, Richard Baldwin, Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Pier Carlo Padoan, 7 December 2010

The unfolding crisis in Europe has focused policymakers’ attention on reducing debt-to-GDP ratios. This open letter to the President of the European Council argues that, while the top part of that fraction is important, the most critical factor in the long run is the restoration of GDP growth – offering several policy recommendations to this end.

Full Article: A new deal for Eurozone growth and stability: An open letter to the President of the European Council]]> Tue, 07 Dec 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5893 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5457 Richard Baldwin, Dany Jaimovich, 2 September 2010

As WTO trade talks languish, what’s driving the surge in regional trade agreements? This column says that regionalism is being driven in large part by the domino effect, in which nations excluded from a trade agreement launch their own negotiations to redress trade diversion. This dynamic is more of a challenge to the WTO than a threat at the moment, but it should not be neglected.

Full Article: Contagious FTAs: New evidence on the domino theory of regionalism]]> Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5457 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5302 Raphael Auer, Richard Baldwin, 16 July 2010

To help grow the next generation of economists, VoxEU.org has teamed with walras.org to form the world’s largest database of job openings for PhD economists. In addition to this comprehensive database of nearly all job openings for PhDs in economics and related fields, our partner walras.org also offers a free online application system allowing the exchange of all application documents and reference letters.

Full Article: Introducing a free database of nearly all jobs for PhD economists]]> Fri, 16 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5302 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5192 Richard Baldwin, Daniel Gros, 17 June 2010

The euro’s crisis is not over. Measures taken in May were critical but they were palliatives not a cure. The Eurozone rescue needs to be completed. This column introduces a new Vox eBook that gathers the thinking of a dozen leading economists on what more needs to be done.

Full Article: New eBook: Completing the Eurozone rescue: What more needs to be done?]]> Thu, 17 Jun 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5192 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5194 Richard Baldwin, Daniel Gros, Luc Laeven, 17 June 2010

The euro’s crisis is not over. Measures taken in May were critical but they were palliatives not a cure. The Eurozone rescue needs to be completed. This Vox eBook gathers the thinking of a dozen leading economists on what more needs to be done.

Full Article: Completing the Eurozone rescue: What more needs to be done?]]> Thu, 17 Jun 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5194 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8940 Richard Baldwin, Daniel Gros, Luc Laeven, 17 June 2010

The euro’s crisis is not over. Measures taken in May were critical but they were palliatives not a cure. The Eurozone rescue needs to be completed. This Vox eBook gathers the thinking of a dozen leading economists on what more needs to be done.

Full Article: Completing the Eurozone rescue: What more needs to be done]]> Thu, 17 Jun 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8940 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5141 Richard Baldwin, 7 June 2010

The WTO is in a funk – unable to conclude the Doha Round even as its members liberalise unilaterally and regionally. This column introduces a Policy Insight arguing that the tactics used to conclude the last round pushed the organisation into decision-making’s “impossible trinity” (consensus, uniform rules, and strict enforcement). The Doha Round may succeed – defeating the triangle with the 'big package' tactic – but this tactic does not work fast enough to allow the WTO to confront 21st century challenges in a timely manner. At least one of the impossible triangle’s corners will have to be modified.

Full Article: Sources of the WTO’s woes: Decision-making’s impossible trinity]]> Mon, 07 Jun 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5141 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5142 Richard Baldwin, 5 June 2010

The WTO is said to be in a funk – unable to conclude the Doha Round even as its members liberalise unilaterally and regionally. CEPR's newest Policy Insight argues that tactics used to get consensus at the last Round pushed the organisation into decision-making’s “impossible trinity” (consensus, uniform rules, and strict enforcement). A Doha package with something for everyone may be found, thus defeating the impossible triangle. The big-package tactic, however, won’t help the WTO confront 21st century challenges in a timely manner; for that, at least one of the triangle’s corners must be modified.

Full Article: Understanding the GATT’s wins and the WTO’s woes]]> Sat, 05 Jun 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5142 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5034 Richard Baldwin, 13 May 2010

As early as 2008, Vox columnists provided research-based warnings that the global crisis could lead to a Eurozone crisis. This column provides a recap of the contributions on this site where leading economists used economic logic and a firm grasp of the facts to think ahead about Europe. The main outline of today’s crisis was plain months ago; EU leaders’ dilatory response made things worse.

Full Article: Eurozone crisis: What Vox columnists said]]> Thu, 13 May 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5034 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1148 Richard Baldwin, 8 May 2010

This column, first posted 17 May 2008, reviews Willem Buiter's analysis of why the ECB is so hesitant to buy debt. Central banks can go broke – and some in developing countries have done so recently. The ECB is now lending against dubious collateral. An ECB recapitalisation seems unthinkable at the moment, but that’s why it is a good time to think the unthinkable. Willem Buiter considers the question at length in CEPR Policy Insight No. 24 and argues that Eurozone fiscal authorities should, ASAP, agree on a formula for fiscal burden-sharing should an ECB recapitalisation ever be necessary.

Full Article: Buiter’s warning: Who is the recapitaliser of last resort for the ECB?]]> Sat, 08 May 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1148 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4915 Richard Baldwin, 23 April 2010

Offshoring is one of the most controversial outcomes of globalisation. This column asks whether economists need a new analytic framework to understand it. New research argues that all you need is good old-fashioned trade theory to keep your thinking straight.

Full Article: Thinking clearly about offshoring]]> Fri, 23 Apr 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4915 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4890 Richard Baldwin, 17 April 2010

The Spanish-language site “Nada Es Gratis” (“There’s No Free Lunch”) joins the Vox Consortium today. The site has been up and running since June 2009 and has already established a broad and active community of readers and contributors.

Full Article: Welcome to Nada Es Gratis, our new Consortium partner]]> Sat, 17 Apr 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4890 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4665 Richard Baldwin, Charles Wyplosz, 22 February 2010

Martin Feldstein suggested last week that Greece take a “holiday” from the Eurozone, rejoining with a depreciated nominal exchange rate. This column argues that the idea is not just impractical, it’s dangerous for the Eurozone.

Full Article: How to destroy the Eurozone: Feldstein’s euro-holiday idea]]> Mon, 22 Feb 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4665 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4297 Richard Baldwin, 27 November 2009

This VoxEU.org eBook aims to inform the world trade ministers what the economists know about the trade collapse.

Full Article: The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4297 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4299 Richard Baldwin, 27 November 2009

World trade experienced a sudden, severe and synchronised collapse in late 2008 – the sharpest in recorded history and deepest since WWII. VoxEU today posts a new Ebook – written for the world's trade ministers gathering for the WTO's Trade Ministerial in Geneva – that presents the economics profession's received wisdom on the collapse. Two dozen chapters, written by leading economists from across the planet, summarise the latest research on the causes of the collapse as well as the consequences and prospects for recovery.

Full Article: The great trade collapse: Presenting the new ebook]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4299 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4301 Richard Baldwin, Daria Taglioni, 27 November 2009

The global crisis has been accompanied by an unprecedented collapse in world trade driven by an unusual and globally synchronised drop in demand. That decline has rapidly improved global imbalances, since the gap between exports and imports ineluctably falls at the same pace as the underlying export and import flows. As import and export growth resume, large global imbalances will return unless both surplus and deficit economies undergo structural changes.

Full Article: The great trade collapse and trade imbalances]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4301 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4304 Richard Baldwin, 27 November 2009

World trade experienced a sudden, severe, and synchronised collapse in late 2008 – the sharpest in recorded history and deepest since WWII. This ebook – written for the world's trade ministers gathering for the WTO's Trade Ministerial in Geneva – presents the economics profession's received wisdom on the collapse. Two dozen chapters, written by leading economists from across the globe, summarise the latest research on the causes of the collapse as well as its consequences and the prospects for recovery. According to the emerging consensus, the collapse was caused by the sudden, severe and globally synchronised postponement of purchases, especially of durable consumer and investment goods (and their parts and components). The impact was amplified by “compositional” and “synchronicity” effects in which international supply chains played a central role.

Full Article: The great trade collapse: What caused it and what does it mean?]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4304 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8957 Richard Baldwin, 27 November 2009

This VoxEU.org eBook aims to inform the world trade ministers what the economists know about the trade collapse.

Full Article: The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8957 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4209 Richard Baldwin, Daria Taglioni, 14 November 2009

Global imbalances are shrinking at a fabulous rate. This column argues that these improvements are mostly illusory – the transitory side-effect of the greatest trade collapse the world has ever seen. A global recovery will almost surely return the US, Germany, China and others to their old paths.

Full Article: The illusion of improving global imbalances]]> Sat, 14 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4209 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4157 Richard Baldwin, 4 November 2009

Policymakers and macroeconomists often remind us that banking crises are nothing new. This column, based on recent papers by Columbia professor Charles Calomiris, looks at the long-term record of banking crises and draws lessons for today.

Full Article: Calomiris on historical crisis lessons]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/4157 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3659 Richard Baldwin, 15 June 2009

According to Alan Blinder, constant improvements in global communications will bring much more offshoring of “impersonal services’’, with an estimated 30 million to 40 million US jobs potentially offshorable. This column warns against taking these numbers at face value and recalls that the US is actually a net insourcer. With the advance of communication technologies, the US should see lots more service jobs “offshored” and lots more “onshored”.

Full Article: How many jobs are onshorable?]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3659 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3417 Richard Baldwin, 4 April 2009

G20 leaders made a number of commitments on trade in their London Communiqué. This column argues that the anti-protection pledge is more credible than the one agreed in the Washington Declaration. The commitment on the Doha Round, by contrast, was pitiful.

Full Article: Trade and the London Summit outcome]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3417 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3363 Richard Baldwin, 29 March 2009

As the crisis evolves, capital will flow out of emerging countries. The IMF's new facility may help with short term shocks. It is also a useful step towards risk pooling and away from self-insurance with large currency reserves and should thus help reduce global imbalances in the long run.

Full Article: Developing nations and capital flows: The IMF's new facility]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3363 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3199 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 5 March 2009

This eBook presents concrete steps that G20 leaders should take to avoid a negative protection-recession spiral and the threat it would pose to a global recovery.

Full Article: The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis: Recommendations for the G20]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3199 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3206 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 5 March 2009

This column introduces a new ebook presenting in-depth analysis of i) the collapse of global trade, and ii) the new, murkier protection emerging as governments around the world massively increase their role in the economy. A negative protection-recession spiral is one of the few things that have not yet gone wrong in this crisis. The book presents concrete steps that G20 leader should take to avoid such a spiral and the threat it would pose to global recovery.

Full Article: Don't let murky protectionism stall a global recovery: Things the G20 should do]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3206 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8958 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 5 March 2009

This eBook presents concrete steps that G20 leaders should take to avoid a negative protection-recession spiral and the threat it would pose to a global recovery.

Full Article: The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis: Recommendations for the G20 ]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8958 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3080 Richard Baldwin, 16 February 2009

The world is in the midst of an unprecedented economic crisis – a global event unfolding at extraordinary speed and in unanticipated directions. Now more than ever, the world needs research-based policy analysis: i) to understand this global and insanely interconnected event, ii) to formulate plans for alleviating its worst effects, and iii) to fix the system so it doesn’t happen again. Vox’s Global Crisis Debate is a vehicle for agglomerating ideas on these issues.

Full Article: Progress report: Vox’s Global Crisis Debate]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/3080 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2743 Richard Baldwin, 1 January 2009

No one knows exactly how to stop the global economic crisis, but all agree that fiscal stimulus has a key role to play. By reducing the length and depth of the recession, it should reduce bankruptcies, foreclosures, and further asset-price drops. This column presents the main logic in a recent IMF paper authored by one of the world’s leading macroeconomists, Oliver Blanchard, and others.

Full Article: The IMF on fiscal policy in the crisis]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2743 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2692 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 13 December 2008

Announcement that the WTO talks will not be put back on track this year – despite the G20’s November 15th commitment to do so – is the first concrete demonstration of the G20’s ineffectiveness. This column argues that the G20 should undertake a “Plan B” on world trade to restore G20 creditability and shore-up support for the WTO.

Full Article: Restoring the G20's credibility on trade: Plan B and the WTO trade talks]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2692 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2656 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 4 December 2008

VoxEU.org has just published another Ebook in our “What leaders should do in the Crisis” series; this one focuses on trade. Unless world leaders strengthen trade cooperation, new tariffs and competitive devaluations could trigger a protectionist spiral of WTO-consistent trade barriers. To rule this out, world leaders should: 1) Reduce protectionist pressures by fighting the recession with macroeconomic polices; 2) Translate APEC and G20 leaders’ words into deeds by agreeing a framework for concluding the Doha Round; and 3) Establish a real-time WTO/IMF surveillance mechanism to track new protection.

Full Article: The crisis and protectionism: Steps world leaders should take]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2656 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2993 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 4 December 2008

A collection of essays from 17 leading trade scholars from around the world addressing the question of what world leaders should do to stop the spread of protectionism.

Full Article: What world leaders should do to halt the spread of protectionism]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2993 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8941 Richard Baldwin, Simon J Evenett, 4 December 2008

Unless world leaders strengthen trade cooperation, new tariffs and competitive devaluations could trigger a protectionist spiral of WTO-consistent trade barriers. To rule this out, world leaders should: 1) Reduce protectionist pressures by fighting the recession with macroeconomic polices; 2) Translate APEC and G20 leaders’ words into deeds by agreeing a framework for concluding the Doha Round; and 3) Establish a real-time WTO/IMF surveillance mechanism to track new protection.

Full Article: What world leaders should do to halt the spread of protectionism]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8941 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2544 Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, 10 November 2008

This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists from around the world on what the G20 leaders should do this weekend. Four priorities are identified: nations should act quickly to strengthen and coordinate their firefighting responses; they should immediately reinforce the IMF’s ability to fire-fight the crisis as it spreads to emerging markets and vulnerable developing nations; they should 'above all, do no harm'. Finally, they should start 'thinking outside the box' when it comes to long-run fixes.

Full Article: What the G20 should do on November 15th to fix the financial system]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2544 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2647 Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, 10 November 2008

Leaders of the G20 nations are meeting this weekend to discuss financial markets and the world economy. Announced just a few weeks ago, this summit is both very unprepared and very important. The world economy and world financial markets are in a delicate state. This eBook from VoxEU.org collects essays from some of the world's leading economists on what the G20 should do.

Full Article: What G20 leaders must do to stabilise our economy and fix the financial system ]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2647 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8944 Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, 10 November 2008

This Vox eBook is a collection of essays by leading economists on what should come out of the G20 summit of 15 November 2008. Four priorities are identified: nations should act quickly to strengthen and coordinate their firefighting responses; they should immediately reinforce the IMF’s ability to fire-fight the crisis as it spreads to emerging markets and vulnerable developing nations; they should 'above all, do no harm'. Finally, they should start 'thinking outside the box' when it comes to long-run fixes.

Full Article: What G20 leaders must do to stabilise our economy and fix the financial system]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8944 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2340 Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, 9 October 2008

Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks.

Full Article: Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2340 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2523 Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, 9 October 2008

Ahead of a meeting of G7/8 finance ministers, this collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do presents a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks.

Full Article: Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2523 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2545 Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, 9 October 2008

Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks.

Full Article: Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/2545 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8180 Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, 9 October 2008

Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This eBook brings together a a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend.

Full Article: Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/8180 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1729 Alberto Alesina, Richard Baldwin, Tito Boeri, Willem Buiter, Francesco Giavazzi, Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Guido Tabellini, Charles Wyplosz, Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1 October 2008

This is a once-in-a-lifetime crisis. Trust among financial institutions is disappearing; fear may spread. Last week’s US experience showed that saving one bank at a time won’t work. A systemic response is needed and in Europe this means an EU-led initiative to recapitalise the banking sector. Unless European leaders immediately unite to address this crisis before it spirals out of control, they may find themselves fighting over how best to salvage the aftermath.

Full Article: Open Letter to European leaders on Europe’s banking crisis: A call to action]]> Wed, 01 Oct 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1729 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1622 Richard Baldwin, 4 September 2008

Today’s globalisation is operating with higher resolution. It is not enough to think of skill groups and sectors; the impact is more unpredictable, sudden and individual than in the past. This column assesses how high-resolution globalisation differs and how governments need to respond to make it work.

Full Article: Making globalisation work: skills, families, unions and the welfare state]]> Thu, 04 Sep 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1622 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1345 Richard Baldwin, 1 July 2008

The World Trade Organisation is losing its place at the centre of the global trading system. Absent reforms, the rules-based architecture of international trade may collapse into a “might makes right” affair.

Full Article: The WTO tipping point]]> Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1345 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1261 Richard Baldwin, 30 June 2008

In this inaugural Vox Talks audio interview, Vox Editor-in-Chief Richard Baldwin and editorial board member Romesh Vaitilingam discuss the achievements of Vox in its first year, some of the ‘greatest hits’ and plans for the future.

Full Article: Vox is one year old]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1261 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1274 Richard Baldwin, 28 June 2008

Hard research on a soft topic shows that terroir doesn’t matter (except for the price) and the opinions of wine ‘experts’ don’t help predict a wine’s long-term value.

Full Article: Wine economics and economical wine]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1274 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1182 Richard Baldwin, 31 May 2008

Smoking bans are sweeping Europe. New research suggests that these bans reduce smoking amongst those directly affected and their families and peers, creating what could be called a “public health multiplier”.

Full Article: Is smoking “contagious”?]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/1182 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/959 Richard Baldwin, 29 February 2008

Trade liberalisation is proceeding everywhere but at the WTO: while nations drag their feet in Geneva, they sign bilateral trade agreements by the dozen. Finishing the ongoing WTO talks is important, but regionalism is the new reality. To maintain its relevance, the WTO must adapt, as regionalism is here to stay.

Full Article: Can we multilateralise regionalism?]]> Fri, 29 Feb 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/959 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/897 Richard Baldwin, 12 February 2008

Raising incomes of the world’s poorest is about more than raising living standards. Poverty kills. This column discusses recent research illustrating the links between extreme poverty and early death.

Full Article: Aging and death on a dollar a day]]> Tue, 12 Feb 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/897 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/728 Richard Baldwin, 20 November 2007

In a May 2007 essay, Martin Feldstein argued that a drop in US mortgage refinancing would raise US personal saving and this would necessitate a fall in the dollar. That’s looking pretty good at the moment. Here his basic logic is explained.

Full Article: Feldstein’s view on the dollar]]> Tue, 20 Nov 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/728 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/587 Richard Baldwin, 2 October 2007

As the dollar has started to slide, the question is: how far, how fast? This column, which is based on Paul Krugman’s recent Economic Policy article suggests the answers are: pretty far and pretty fast.

Full Article: Krugman’s view on the dollar]]> Tue, 02 Oct 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/587 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/351 Richard Baldwin, 4 July 2007

Recent advances in economics have opened a gap between research and real-world applications. This essay – written for LaVoce’s 5th anniversary – discusses how sites like LaVoce are bridging the research-reality gap.

Full Article: Economic policy discussion on the web]]> Wed, 04 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/351 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/318 Richard Baldwin, 24 June 2007

Delaying the Constitution’s voting rules for 10 years is a nice way of saying they won’t be adopted. Either the current voting rules will produce Thatcher-sized blockages and have to be revised in the meantime, or the EU27+ will learn to work with them, in which case no one will want to switch in 2017.

Full Article: Poland won]]> Sun, 24 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/318 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/290 Richard Baldwin, 22 June 2007

The rising cost of VAT fraud has forced its way onto the agendas of Europe’s highest levels of government. This final instalment considers the solution that the German Presidency is pushing and argues that this “solution” may cause as many problems as it fixes.

Full Article: VAT fraud part 5]]> Fri, 22 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/290 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/275 Richard Baldwin, 18 June 2007

Criminals soon learned that the Single Market’s removal of internal border checks made VAT fraud easier and more profitable. The problem was recognised a decade ago and proposals to fix it abound. This instalment considers various solutions to the problem.

Full Article: VAT fraud part 4]]> Mon, 18 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/275 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/279 Richard Baldwin, 18 June 2007

There is a clear positive relationship between an EU member’s power per person in the Council of Ministers and its receipts per person from the EU budget. If voting rules have such a clear effect on an easily measurable outcome like budget allocations, it is likely that votes matter for other more important issues.

Full Article: Voting rules matter: Poland’s cause]]> Mon, 18 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/279 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/273 Richard Baldwin, 17 June 2007

Tax criminals employ a number of intricate schemes, some of which have been discovered and prosecuted. This third instalment in a five-part series looks at how the schemes work and at estimates of how much they are costing EU governments.

Full Article: VAT fraud part 3]]> Sun, 17 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/273 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/272 Richard Baldwin, 16 June 2007

EU governments are defrauded of millions of euros a year on intra-EU trade. This second instalment in a five-part series looks why VAT is especially vulnerable at the borders.

Full Article: VAT fraud part 2]]> Sat, 16 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/272 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/276 Richard Baldwin, Mika Widgrén, 16 June 2007

The German Presidency wants to avoid discussion of voting rules in the new treaty, but the rules in the Constitution were agreed in a crisis atmosphere in 2004. Excluding discussion and analysis is not the way to get them right.

Full Article: Pandora’s (ballot) box]]> Sat, 16 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/276 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/262 Richard Baldwin, Mika Widgrén, 15 June 2007

Poland insists that the EU allocate Council-of-Minister votes according to the sqaure root of each nation's population. There is a method to this madness, in fact it has a cherished place in voting game theory, but it takes some work to see why.

Full Article: Poland's square-root-ness]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/262 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/256 Richard Baldwin, 14 June 2007

Organised criminals earn millions from tax fraud while EU cooperation on the issue is gridlocked. This series of five columns looks at the problem and suggests that the German EU Presidency is pushing the wrong solution. This first instalment considers essential technical aspects of the VAT.

Full Article: VAT fraud part 1]]> Thu, 14 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/256 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/249 Richard Baldwin, 13 June 2007

Council voting reform is one change that must be in the new treaty to consider it a success. The impact of Turkish membership on the distribution of power could be the key to choosing from the options for Council voting reform

Full Article: The new treaty: economist’s perspective, part 4]]> Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/249 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/246 Richard Baldwin, 11 June 2007

It is easy to get misty-eyed about European ideals, but the reality is that the Constitution was just another big-package political compromise of the sort that has been put together at every step in Europe’s long history of integration.

Full Article: The new treaty: economist’s perspective, part 3]]> Mon, 11 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/246 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/245 Richard Baldwin, 10 June 2007

Negotiations on the new treaty should focus on the rejected Constitution’s four key changes: new Council of Ministers voting rules, inclusion of the Charter of Fundamental Rights, removal of the ‘pillar’ system, and generalisation of the passerelle and flexibility clauses.

Full Article: The new treaty: economist’s perspective, part 2]]> Sun, 10 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/245 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/244 Richard Baldwin, 9 June 2007

Public debate on the new treaty focuses on marketing issues (re-packing) or extreme generalities (mini-treaty), but there are important choices to be made, and the various reform elements – such as voting rules, the number of Commissioners and removal of the famous Maastricht pillars – interact in complex ways. First in a series of 4 columns on the issue.

Full Article: The new treaty: economist’s perspective, part 1]]> Sat, 09 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/244 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/54 Richard Baldwin, 17 May 2007

Formal criteria don’t define the limits of Europe; they only delay the membership of determined applicants. The true limit is the EU’s capacity to absorb newcomers. Eastern enlargement challenged this capacity, but the forthcoming institutional reforms that allow the EU27 to function will – quite inadvertently – make it easier to enlarge the EU further. EU42 anyone?

Full Article: Is enlargement unlimited?]]> Thu, 17 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/54 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/169 Richard Baldwin, Mika Widgrén, 11 May 2007

That the EU needs a new treaty is clear from two strands of evidence: the data showing a marked slowdown in EU decision-making since the May 2004 enlargement, and evidence based on ‘revealed preference’ reasoning.

Full Article: Is a new treaty needed? ]]> Fri, 11 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/169 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/38 Richard Baldwin, 29 April 2007

Economics played little role in the decision to create the euro – politics was king. Going forward, however, economics moves to centre stage. Should the euro area worry about admitting new members who are economically very different from incumbents?

Full Article: In or out: does it matter? An evidence-based analysis of the euro's trade effects]]> Sun, 29 Apr 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/38 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/117 Richard Baldwin, 20 March 2007

Written in March 2007: The EU started life in circumstances that are almost unimaginable in today’s world and the Treaty of Rome committed members to economic and political integration that would be unacceptable to most nations in today’s world. In this sense, the Treaty was the bud whose leaves unfolded over 50 years into today’s European Union.

Full Article: Treaty of Rome at 50]]> Tue, 20 Mar 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/117 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/242 Richard Baldwin, Mika Widgrén, 7 June 2006

CEPR Policy Insight No.3 presents two strands of evidence that a new treaty is needed - one based on the decline in of EU decision making since the May 2004 enlargement, the other based on ‘revealed preference’ reasoning concerning the men and women who are most in touch with the realities of EU decision-making.

Full Article: Does the EU need a new treaty?]]> Wed, 07 Jun 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/242 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/121 Richard Baldwin, 5 December 2005

Written December 2005: The reformed CAP pays billions to wealthy landowners, including the Queen of England. Thanks to the British Freedom-of-Information Act the exact amounts are known; basic accounting calculations reveal how much each EU member pays to the Queen.

Full Article: The royalty of CAP madness]]> Mon, 05 Dec 2005 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/121 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/84 Richard Baldwin, 3 June 2005

Written June 2005: The ‘non’ and ‘nee’ will have important effects on French and Dutch domestic politics, but won’t be the ‘political tsunami’ for the EU that many observers predict. The EU was headed for tough times regardless of the Constitution’s fate, and there is a simple, viable ‘Plan B.’

Full Article: Plan B for the EU constitution]]> Fri, 03 Jun 2005 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/84 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/85 Richard Baldwin, 3 June 2005

Written June 2005: A great deal of nonsense has been written in the mainstream press about the French and Dutch rejections, much of it stemming from the ‘cry wolf’ campaigns of the ‘yes’ camps. Here are five fallacies that are critical to the future debate.

Full Article: Constitutional treaty fallacies]]> Fri, 03 Jun 2005 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/85