Lights, camera ... income!: Estimating poverty using national accounts, survey means, and lights

Maxim Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 27 February 2014

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How many people are poor, and how fast are they leaving poverty? The World Bank (Chen and Ravallion 2001, 2010) says that a quarter of the people in the developing world lived on an income of less than $1.25 a day (the threshold of absolute poverty defined by the lowest poverty lines in developing countries), down from about 40% in 1992.

Topics: Development, Poverty and income inequality
Tags: GDP, satellite, surveys

A penny spent is a penny earned (by someone else): Measuring GDP

S Borağan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold, Jeremy J Nalewaik, Frank Schorfheide, Dongho Song, 3 December 2013

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“A growing number of economists say that the government should shift its approach to measuring growth. The current system emphasises data on spending, but the bureau also collects data on income. In theory the two should match perfectly – a penny spent is a penny earned by someone else.

Topics: Frontiers of economic research
Tags: data, GDP, measurement, national income accounting, unemployment, US

Why have developing-country data on real incomes been revised so much?

Martin Ravallion, 26 March 2010

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The International Comparison Program (ICP) collects the survey data on prices across countries that are used to estimate Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates (PPPs for short). These are then used to make international comparisons of real incomes and for other purposes, including measuring global poverty and inequality.

Topics: Development
Tags: data, GDP, purchasing power parity, World Bank

Did financial globalisation make the US crisis worse?

Enrique G. Mendoza, Vincenzo Quadrini, 14 November 2009

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The global financial crisis that started with the meltdown of the US subprime mortgage market in 2007 was preceded by a protracted period of growth in debt and leverage ratios in an environment of increasing world financial integration, low real interest rates, and growing US external deficits.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: financial globalisation, GDP, global crisis

Business cycles become less synchronised over time: Debunking “decoupling”

Andrew K Rose, 1 August 2009

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Much recent research has investigated the degree of cross-country synchronisation of business cycles, primarily from an empirical perspective.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: business cycles, decoupling, GDP

Want faster European growth? Learn to love creative destruction

Nicholas Crafts, 11 July 2008

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Paul Krugman once observed that 3% per year is about as good as it gets for GDP growth in advanced economies. While the United States has achieved this since 1995, the EU15 have fallen well short – averaging only 2.3%.

Topics: Competition policy, Productivity and Innovation
Tags: competition, GDP, labour productivity growth

The Irish slowdown

Philip Lane, 1 July 2008

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Last week, the Economic and Social Research Institute (the most respected economics institute in Ireland) forecast that GDP growth in Ireland will be negative in 2008 at -0.4 %. This represents a sharp decline from 5.3 % growth in 2007 and a long sequence of high growth rates since the mid 1990s.

Topics: Europe's nations and regions
Tags: GDP, Growth and Stability Pact, Ireland

Whither macroeconomics? The surprising success of naïve GDP forecasts

Jon Faust, 31 January 2008

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Over the past ten days, the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its policy interest rate 125 basis points based largely on its assessment of the need to battle strong recessionary forces.

Topics: Monetary policy
Tags: economic forecasting, Federal Reserve, GDP

€-coin and the euro area economic outlook: where do we stand?

Riccardo Cristadoro, Giovanni Veronese, 29 October 2007

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Policy-makers, forecasters and market analysts all face the same problem: “given the latest news, should I change my current assessment of the economic outlook?” Answering this question is particularly difficult given all the uncertainty in the economy – uncertainty about the current state of the economy, uncertainty about its true structure, uncertainty about the acc

Topics: Frontiers of economic research
Tags: euro area, GDP, indicator, €-Coin

The fuss about foreign exchange reserves accumulation

Charles Wyplosz, 28 May 2007

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Over the last decade, central banks around the world have quadrupled the size of their foreign exchange reserves. The case of China, which multiplied its own stock by a factor of ten, is often mentioned as an example of these excesses, but China is not alone. Total reserves of sub-Sahara African countries have also risen by a factor of ten.

Topics: Exchange rates
Tags: external liabilities, foreign exchange reserves, GDP

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