How many people are poor, and how fast are they leaving poverty? The World Bank (Chen and Ravallion 2001, 2010) says that a quarter of the people in the developing world lived on an income of less than $1.25 a day (the threshold of absolute poverty defined by the lowest poverty lines in developing countries), down from about 40% in 1992.
Lights, camera ... income!: Estimating poverty using national accounts, survey means, and lights
Maxim Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 27 February 2014
A penny spent is a penny earned (by someone else): Measuring GDP
S Borağan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold, Jeremy J Nalewaik, Frank Schorfheide, Dongho Song, 3 December 2013
“A growing number of economists say that the government should shift its approach to measuring growth. The current system emphasises data on spending, but the bureau also collects data on income. In theory the two should match perfectly – a penny spent is a penny earned by someone else.
Why have developing-country data on real incomes been revised so much?
Martin Ravallion, 26 March 2010
The International Comparison Program (ICP) collects the survey data on prices across countries that are used to estimate Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates (PPPs for short). These are then used to make international comparisons of real incomes and for other purposes, including measuring global poverty and inequality.
Did financial globalisation make the US crisis worse?
Enrique G. Mendoza, Vincenzo Quadrini, 14 November 2009
The global financial crisis that started with the meltdown of the US subprime mortgage market in 2007 was preceded by a protracted period of growth in debt and leverage ratios in an environment of increasing world financial integration, low real interest rates, and growing US external deficits.
Business cycles become less synchronised over time: Debunking “decoupling”
Andrew K Rose, 1 August 2009
Much recent research has investigated the degree of cross-country synchronisation of business cycles, primarily from an empirical perspective.
Want faster European growth? Learn to love creative destruction
Nicholas Crafts, 11 July 2008
Paul Krugman once observed that 3% per year is about as good as it gets for GDP growth in advanced economies. While the United States has achieved this since 1995, the EU15 have fallen well short – averaging only 2.3%.
The Irish slowdown
Philip Lane, 1 July 2008
Last week, the Economic and Social Research Institute (the most respected economics institute in Ireland) forecast that GDP growth in Ireland will be negative in 2008 at -0.4 %. This represents a sharp decline from 5.3 % growth in 2007 and a long sequence of high growth rates since the mid 1990s.
Whither macroeconomics? The surprising success of naïve GDP forecasts
Jon Faust, 31 January 2008
Over the past ten days, the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its policy interest rate 125 basis points based largely on its assessment of the need to battle strong recessionary forces.
€-coin and the euro area economic outlook: where do we stand?
Riccardo Cristadoro, Giovanni Veronese, 29 October 2007
Policy-makers, forecasters and market analysts all face the same problem: “given the latest news, should I change my current assessment of the economic outlook?” Answering this question is particularly difficult given all the uncertainty in the economy – uncertainty about the current state of the economy, uncertainty about its true structure, uncertainty about the acc
The fuss about foreign exchange reserves accumulation
Charles Wyplosz, 28 May 2007
Over the last decade, central banks around the world have quadrupled the size of their foreign exchange reserves. The case of China, which multiplied its own stock by a factor of ten, is often mentioned as an example of these excesses, but China is not alone. Total reserves of sub-Sahara African countries have also risen by a factor of ten.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
DellaVigna, Durante, Knight, La Ferrara
Ostry, Berg, Tsangarides
Allen, Eichengreen, Evans
Greenwood, Guner, Kocharakov, Santos
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche
- Making city lights shine brighterYusuf, Leipziger
- The euro in the 'currency war'Bénassy-Quéré, Martin
- The roots of shadow bankingPerotti
- What’s wrong with Europe?Baldini, Manasse
- How the EZ crisis is permanently changing EU institutionsMico