At its meeting on 1 August 2013, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to provide state-contingent forward guidance concerning the future conduct of monetary policy. The aim was to provide more information to help financial markets, households and businesses understand the conditions under which the current stance of monetary policy would be maintained.
Forward guidance in the UK
Spencer Dale, James Talbot, 13 September 2013
Revisiting the pain in Spain
Paul De Grauwe, 7 July 2014
The different macroeconomic adjustment dynamics in Spain – a member of a monetary union – and the UK – a stand-alone country – is stark. Paul Krugman popularised this contrast in his New York Times blog with the title “The Pain in Spain” (Krugman 2009, 2011), and commented on my own analysis in De Grauwe (2011).
Topics: Europe's nations and regions, Global crisis, Macroeconomic policy
Tags: austerity, currency depreciation, ECB, EMU, euro, EZ crisis, fiscal policy, government debt, monetary policy, monetary union, Outright Monetary Transactions, Spain, UK
Monetary policy without interest rates: Evidence from France (1948 to 1973) using a narrative approach
Eric Monnet, 5 July 2014
Recent central bank interventions following the Global Crisis have raised new interest in quantitative measures as instruments of monetary or macroprudential policy (Borio 2011, Galati and Moessner 2013).
Low interest rates and secular stagnation: Is debt a missing link?
Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat, 25 June 2014
Today, the US government can borrow for ten years at a fixed rate of around 2.5%. Adjusted for expected inflation, this translates into a real borrowing cost of under 0.5%. A year ago, real rates were actually negative. With low interest rates dominating the developed world, many worry that an era of secular stagnation has begun (Summers 2013).
Topics: Financial markets, Global crisis, Monetary policy
Tags: debt, global crisis, interest rates, monetary non-neutrality, monetary policy, natural rate of interest, risk-taking channel of monetary policy, secular stagnation
Repairing the transmission of monetary policy through asset-backed securitisation
Markus K Brunnermeier, Yuliy Sannikov, 3 June 2014
Recent data show a decline in credit to small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) and private loans. Lack of credit growth to productive firms is one of the main obstacles to reignite the European growth engine.
ECB: An appropriate monetary policy
Mickey Levy, 16 May 2014
Europe’s modest economic recovery and uncomfortably low inflation put the ECB in a bind. Although economic conditions are improving gradually (European Commission 2014), concerns about the potentially negative impacts of deflation persist (Armstrong et al. 2014).
Why monetary policy matters: New UK narrative evidence
James Cloyne, Patrick Hürtgen, 15 May 2014
In recent decades, central banks around the world have predominantly used interest rates as their main monetary policy instrument. And while the zero lower bound has necessitated a range of unconventional monetary policies, many central banks clearly still intend to use interest rates as their preferred tool as their economies recover.
Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, 19 December 2013
In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of the US central bank tapering its securities purchases from $85 billion a month to something lower. A milestone to which many observers point is 22 May 2013, when Chairman Bernanke raised the possibility of tapering in his testimony to Congress.
Monetary policy will never be the same
Olivier Blanchard, 27 November 2013
Two weeks ago, the IMF organized a major research conference, in honour of Stanley Fischer, on lessons from the crisis. Here is my take. I shall focus on what I see as the lessons for monetary policy, but before I do this, let me mention two other important conclusions.
Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy
Knut Are Aastveit, Gisle James Natvik, Sergio Sola, 19 October 2013
Since the onset of the “Great recession”, economists have struggled to explain why the recovery has been so slow, despite the many policy measures that have been passed to re-invigorate economic activity. One candidate explanation that several have pointed to, for instance Baker, Bloom, Davis and Van Reenen (2012), is economic uncertainty.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
- Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A new modelKrugman
Cadot, de Melo, 16 June 2014
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche
- The economics of Scottish independence in an interdependent worldHughes Hallett
- Making city lights shine brighterYusuf, Leipziger
- The euro in the 'currency war'Bénassy-Quéré, Martin
- The roots of shadow bankingPerotti
- What’s wrong with Europe?Baldini, Manasse
- Corporate Finance Theory Symposium19 - 20 September 2014 / Cambridge / Judge Business School, Cambridge University
- International Trade, Finance, and Macroeconomics: Research Frontiers and Challenges for Policy18 - 19 December 2014 / The Bank of England, London / The Bank of England, Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR