Can China’s growth lower welfare in developed countries? A refutation of the Samuelson conjecture

Julian di Giovanni, Andrei Levchenko, Jing Zhang 02 April 2012

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Topics:  Global economy International trade

Tags:  China, comparative advantage

Beggar-thy-neighbours? Spillover effects of exchange rates

Aaditya Mattoo, Arvind Subramanian, Prachi Mishra 23 March 2012

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Nearly all of the empirical research on exchange rates is focused on the impact of their changes on the country experiencing or undertaking them. This is true of the older, voluminous literature on the trade consequences of exchange rates (surveyed in Goldstein and Khan 1985), as well as more recent contributions like Rodrik (2008) and Berman et al. (2012). There is less evidence quantifying the effect of exchange rate movements on the exports of competitor countries, a classic case of spillover that, in its adverse manifestation, is dubbed the “beggar-thy-neighbour” effect.

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Topics:  Exchange rates

Tags:  China, spillovers, beggar-thy-neighbour

China’s economic rebalancing is already underway

Yiping Huang 17 February 2012

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The international community, and particularly policymakers in the US, put great expectations on the contribution that China can make to a global economic recovery by rebalancing its economy through promoting consumption growth (see, for example, O’Neill 2010 on this site).

The Chinese authorities broadly accept this priority and have put in place a number of policy measures that aim to achieve it.

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Topics:  Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  China, consumption, rebalancing

The renminbi’s prospects as a global reserve currency

Eswar Prasad, Lei (Sandy) Ye 16 February 2012

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Popular discussions about the prospects of China’s currency – the renminbi – range from the view that it is on the threshold of becoming the dominant global reserve currency to the concern that rapid capital-account opening poses serious risks for China.

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Topics:  International finance International trade

Tags:  China, globalisation, renminbi, exchange-rate policy

Does the renminbi matter? Evidence from China’s disaggregated processed exports

Willem Thorbecke 29 January 2012

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China’s surging exports and its exchange rate have elicited consternation from economists, politicians, and pundits. How would a stronger renminbi affect China’s exports and its trade surplus? China’s entire surplus is in a customs regime called processing trade. Imports for processing are intermediate inputs that are imported duty-free to produce final goods for re-export.

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Topics:  Exchange rates International trade

Tags:  China, exports, exchange-rate policy

Rogue aid? On the importance of political institutions and natural resources for China’s allocation of foreign aid

Axel Dreher, Andreas Fuchs 27 January 2012

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In an obvious reference to China, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently warned during her visit to Burma to “[b]e wary of donors who are more interested in extracting your resources than in building your capacity” (quoted in FT 2011).  China’s allocation of foreign aid not only receives widespread attention, but is also a major source of concern for Western policymakers. Recent examples include China’s massive support for Belarus – ‘Europe’s last dictatorship’ – and the recurrent provision of aid to North Korea, China’s Communist neighbour.

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Topics:  Development Politics and economics

Tags:  China, natural resources, development aid, rogue aid

Are China and India converging?

Ejaz Ghani 23 January 2012

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Both China and India have attracted global attention for rapid growth, but their growth patterns are very different (Rajan 2006, Pack 2008, Bosworth and Maertens 2010). China took the conventional route of manufacturing-led growth and is recognised as a global leader in manufactured exports. India followed the unconventional route of service-led growth and has acquired a global reputation for service exports. Are their growth patterns converging? Is China catching up in services? Is India catching up in manufacturing? Or has hysteresis kept their growth patterns different?

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Topics:  Development International trade

Tags:  China, India, manufacturing, services

Global value chains are not all born identical: Policymakers beware

Carlo Altomonte, Filippo di Mauro, Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, Vincent Vicard, Armando Rungi 04 January 2012

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Global value chains are increasingly important in international trade. The breakup of goods and services production between different companies often operating in different parts of the world (creating a ‘global’ value chain) can be seen all around us. (Take, for instance, the omnipresent iPhone from Apple; see Xing (2011) on this site).

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Topics:  Global crisis International trade

Tags:  US, China, exchange-rate policy, global value chains

The contribution of Chinese FDI to Africa’s pre-crisis growth surge

John Whalley, Aaron Weisbrod 21 December 2011

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In the three years before the 2008 financial crisis, GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa (averaged over individual economies) was around 6%, 2 percentage points above the mean growth in the preceding ten years. This period also coincided with significant Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into these countries, accounting for as much as 10% of total inward FDI for some countries. In our research (Weisbrod and Whalley 2011) we use growth-accounting methods to assess what portion of this elevated growth can be attributed to Chinese inward FDI.

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Topics:  Development

Tags:  growth, China, Africa, FDI

China’s dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tripolar global currency system

Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud Mehl 15 December 2011

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The 2007–08 global financial crisis has brought the reform of the international monetary system back to the forefront of the international policy debate. Some G20 leaders, notably from emerging economies, are questioning the configuration of the current system based on a single currency, the US dollar, as global reference currency, and the euro, as a more regional currency.

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Topics:  International finance Monetary policy

Tags:  China, exchange-rate policy

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