Is the international monetary system tripolar – with the US dollar, the euro, and the Chinese renminbi at each corner? This column presents empirical evidence to suggest that the renminbi is already well on its way to being the dominant currency in Asia.
Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud Mehl, 15 December 2011
Helmut Reisen, 05 December 2011
China’s currency has appreciated substantially in recent years. While many in the west still argue that this is not sufficient and focus on the effects on their domestic industry, this column asks what the effects have been for the world’s poor countries.
Avraham Ebenstein, Moshe Hazan, Avi Simhon, 02 December 2011
For years, policymakers trying to influence the decisions of would-be parents have tried to change the ‘price’ of having children. In France they have made it cheaper; in China more expensive. This column looks at whether such policies are likely to have their desired effect. It examines unique evidence of a shock to the cost of having a child in Israeli communities between 1990 and 2000.
Valentina Bosetti, Jeffrey Frankel Frankel, 28 November 2011
The signatories of the UN Convention on Climate Change will meet again this week in Durban, South Africa. But time is running out if they are to come up with a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, especially with the US at loggerheads with China and India. This column proposes a novel yet pragmatic solution.
Bernard O’Connor, 27 November 2011
Is China a market economy? This legal question matters as antidumping and anti-subsidies laws apply differently to market economies. This column deconstructs the myth that China will automatically get market-economy status at the WTO in 2016 and argues that if China wants the EU to recognise it as a market economy it should comply with the explicit criteria in EU law.
Heleen Mees, Philip Hans Franses, 20 November 2011
Are the Chinese prone to money illusion? This column uses a unique Chinese dataset and finds that, unlike their American counterparts, Chinese people are more likely to base decisions on the real value and not be fooled by inflation.
Timothy Kehoe, Kim Ruhl, 19 November 2011
In 1985, Mexico opened itself to trade and investment. In recent years, China has followed the same path with much more impressive results. But this column argues that the slow growth and crises that Mexico experienced after the initial boom should act as a warning to those optimistic about China.
Rajeswari Sengupta, Joshua Aizenman, 15 November 2011
Emerging markets face what some economists are calling a trilemma. They cannot simultaneously target exchange-rate stability, conduct an independent monetary policy, and have full financial integration. So what to do? This column looks at how Asia’s giants are responding – and in different ways.
Yuhan Zhang, 13 November 2011
China’s growth since the 1980s has been phenomenally high. This column argues that it has been driven not by exports, as widely believed, but by investment. It adds that this strategy makes China’s economy unsustainable as it creates significant overcapacity in a range of sectors and leads to increasing debt. China’s road towards more consumption-driven growth will be far from smooth.
Kavaljit Singh, 31 October 2011
In 2007 China set up its sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation, with an initial capital fund of $200 billion. Since then, Asia’s other emerging economic power – India – has been wondering if it should follow. This column argues that such a move is ill-advised and that India has more worthy investment opportunities at home.
Jeffrey Frankel Frankel, 10 October 2011
Over the last few years, use of China’s currency for international trade has been growing steadily. Some argue this is the start of a journey that will see the renminbi displace the dollar and become the international reserve currency within a decade. This column asks whether such prophecies are realistic by looking at how other international currencies established themselves.
Ganeshan Wignaraja, 29 September 2011
With the global economy in the treatment room, Asia’s economic giants are under examination as among the few exciting sources of world trade and growth. This column summarises the results of research on reforms, regionalism, and exports in China and India. It finds that China is likely to remain ahead in world trade in the next decade, although India has the opportunity to narrow the gap using policy measures.
Thomas Farole, 28 September 2011
As competition for FDI and trade share intensifies in a tightening global environment, more and more countries are looking at the potential of special economic zones to kickstart growth. But China aside, do these zones work? This column asks: what have we learned from the experiences of developing countries over recent decades?
Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, 27 September 2011
The number of domestic patent filings in China increased at an annual rate of 35% from 1999 to 2006. But the reasons behind this ‘patent explosion’ are unclear. By compiling a new dataset of 20,000 Chinese manufacturing firms, this column shows that the explosion has been ignited by the ICT sector.
Debin Ma, 14 September 2011
Recent research stresses the key role of a nation’s 'legal origin' – for example, common law versus civil law regimes – in determining economic performance. This column explores the much-overlooked origin of Chinese law and the role it is playing in the country’s development.
Piyush Chandra, 04 September 2011
As tariffs have decreased around the world, many countries have started using other measures of protection, such as antidumping duties. This column explores China's imposition of such duties during 1997-2009. It finds that China’s antidumping duties disproportionally targeted high-income countries and were almost all in five sectors – chemicals, paper and pulp, plastics and rubber, steel, and textiles.
Heleen Mees, 08 August 2011
As fears mount of another phase in the global crisis, this column points out that despite the growing uncertainty, US Treasury and German Bund yields have actually declined in recent weeks. The reason, it argues, is the global saving glut theory.
Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang, 15 July 2011
For a while now, analysts have been arguing there is a bubble in China’s property market. Using records from 35 major cities this column finds evidence of a housing bubble. It compares house prices to cointegrated fundamentals and finds that property in China is in general overvalued by around 20% – and even more so in the boom towns.
Helmut Reisen, Jean-Philippe Stijns, 12 July 2011
Many discussions of official development assistance express concerns about China's growing investment and involvement in Africa economies. This column, summarizing the 2011 African Economic Outlook report, emphasizes the benefits of emerging economies' increasing presence in Africa, including the opening of African policy space due to Western donors' decline in relative influence.
Olaf Unteroberdoerster, Jade Vichyanond, Adil Mohommad, 12 June 2011
Persistent global imbalances are raising concerns about the sustainability of the global recovery and economic growth in general. This column argues that a proper appreciation of the influence of exchange rates and demand on global imbalances requires taking into account an important feature of Asia’s trade – cross-border supply chains or “vertical integration”.