The saving glut theory has gone out of fashion – unjustly so. In spite of twin financial crises looming on either side of the Atlantic, US Treasury and German Bund yields have declined in recent weeks. This can be explained by not only the dismal economic growth of the US economy in the first semester of 2011, but also the unrelenting build-up in total debt securities outstanding.
The global saving glut will hold bond yields down
Heleen Mees, 8 August 2011
On the Chinese house-price bubble
Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang, 15 July 2011
For many observers, the Chinese economy has been spurred by a bubble in the real-estate market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion (Nicolas 2009). For example, the stock of loans increased by more than 50% since the end of 2008.
Emerging partners create policy space for Africa
Helmut Reisen, Jean-Philippe Stijns, 12 July 2011
Western politicians have watched the increased presence of emerging countries in Africa with much suspicion. Insinuations run from emerging countries – above all China – bringing down governance standards in Africa to them re-indebting, de-industrialising, and cornering African countries into the production of commodities while only enriching the elites.
Asia’s supply chain: Implications for rebalancing
Olaf Unteroberdoerster, Jade Vichyanond, Adil Mohommad, 12 June 2011
Persistent global imbalances are raising concerns about the sustainability of the global recovery and longer-term growth. Global imbalances owe in part to the pattern of exchange rates and demand across major countries.
The elephant in the "green room": China and the Doha Round
Aaditya Mattoo, Francis Ng, Arvind Subramanian, 21 May 2011
The puzzle about the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations is not why it is on life support now but how it has survived as a viable multilateral initiative for so long (Schwab 2011). From the very beginning, it was clear that the Round suffered from a lack of private-sector interest, the engine that had driven previous rounds of successful trade negotiations.
Geography and offshoring to China
Alyson C Ma, Ari Van Assche, 18 May 2011
Anecdotal evidence is rife with tales of multinational firms that have offshored their production to China, stoking fears that it is leading to a hollowing-out of manufacturing around the world.
Why are reserves so big?
Uri Dadush, Bennett Stancil, 9 May 2011
Foreign-exchange reserves play a crucial role in macroeconomic management. They provide a safety net during times of economic turmoil and, for most developing countries, a means to peg the nominal exchange rate. They also provide a means to manage windfalls from commodity exports or from sudden surges of capital.
What to do about Doha
Anne Krueger, 28 April 2011
In an ideal world, the Doha Round would have been completed by now.
Since it has not been, the best outcome now would be to have a strong agreement that could quickly be negotiated, especially enhancing the agreements on the liberalisation of services and agriculture.
Asia Pacific and the Doha Round
Muhammad Chatib Basri, 28 April 2011
Of many benefits of the Doha Round for the Asia Pacific economies, one is fostering their reform process and taking advantage of new market access.
Asia Pacific economies (many of them classified as emerging economies) have an enormous stake in the Doha Round.
Doha Round: Or else what?
Philip Levy, 28 April 2011
The state of the current round of global trade talks is indisputably dire. It is never a good sign when analysts are quibbling over whether Doha is dead or simply comatose. Despite plaintive, increasingly desperate cries from Geneva, leaders of the G20 countries have shown little inclination to follow through on their repeated commitments to conclude the talks.
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CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
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- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche
- What’s wrong with Europe?Baldini, Manasse
- How the EZ crisis is permanently changing EU institutionsMicossi
- WTO 2.0: Global governance of supply-chain tradeBaldwin
- Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwindsGordon
- The economic crisis: How to stimulate economies without increasing public debtWood