The US economy is recovering. But what explains the stubborn malaise in its labour market? This column argues that future recovery from recession will likely be jobless because technological advances and mechanisation now enable troubled firms to shed middle-income jobs in favour of machines and automation. If these jobs are not recouped during subsequent economic recovery, future recoveries may well remain jobless.
Henry Siu, Nir Jaimovich, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 - 00:00
Elke Jahn, Regina T. Riphahn, Claus Schnabel, Wednesday, October 10, 2012 - 00:00
Economic policymakers across Europe have sought to increase labour market flexibility by promoting the use of temporary employment. This column points to a possible trade-off between efficiency and equity when deregulating labour markets, suggesting that flexible forms of employment can be both a boon and a bane for labour markets and for society as a whole.
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Martín Uribe, Sunday, September 16, 2012 - 00:00
Since the onset of the great recession in peripheral Europe, nominal hourly wages have not fallen much from the high levels they had reached during the boom years in spite of widespread increases in unemployment. This paper analyses a number of national and supranational policy options for alleviating the unemployment problem, arguing that it is unlikely that a solution will come from within national borders.
Matthew O. Jackson, Yves Zenou, Sunday, September 9, 2012 - 00:00
This paper provides an overview and synthesis of the literatures analysing games where players are connected via a network structure. While it focuses on the game theoretic modeling, it also also include some discussion of analyses of peer effects, as well as applications to diffusion, employment, crime, industrial organisation, and education.
Hermann Gartner, Christian Merkl, Thomas Rothe, Wednesday, August 8, 2012 - 00:00
The upside to a rigid labour market, so the argument goes, is that the downside isn’t so bad. This column compares evidence from the job markets in Germany and the US. It argues that Germany is actually far more volatile.
Alan Manning, Barbara Petrongolo, Friday, August 3, 2012 - 00:00
Will the London Olympics provide a major boost for employment in Stratford, as promised? This column presents evidence from a study in the UK, which, if applied to the Olympics, suggests that we shouldn’t count on it – many of the jobs will go to other Londoners.
Guillermo Calvo, Fabrizio Coricelli, Pablo Ottonello, Tuesday, July 24, 2012 - 00:00
Economic output in the US seems to have recovered since the Great Recession – but jobs have not. This ‘jobless recovery’ has led economists to argue that unemployment has reached a point where it can fall no further without further inflation. This column disagrees, suggesting the nature of the crisis affects the nature of the recovery.
Glenda Quintini, Tuesday, May 15, 2012 - 00:00
Recent sizeable increases in youth unemployment are compromising the school-to-work transition of recent school graduates. This column uses optimal matching, a method borrowed from molecular biology, to study the transitions from school to work in Europe and the US. It argues the share of youth facing serious difficulties on the labour market is 18 percentage points smaller in the US than in Europe. In Europe, 30% of youth face difficulties settling into the labour market and another 15% are trapped in long-term unemployment or inactivity.
Clemens Hetschko, Andreas Knabe, Ronnie Schöb, Friday, May 4, 2012 - 00:00
Most people’s wellbeing is permanently affected by unemployment. This column argues that the unhappiness is due to a loss of identity, rather than daily experiences. Using German data, it shows that the long-term unemployed become happier upon entering retirement, thus changing social category, even though this does not change their daily lives.
Alessandro Turrini, Wednesday, April 25, 2012 - 00:00
Most EU countries have embarked on a path of fiscal austerity. Would the employment impact of fiscal consolidation be more harmful if reforms liberalising the labour market were taken at the same time? This column argues that fiscal consolidations increase unemployment more in regulated labour markets because employment protection is associated with a stronger reduction in job creation.
Jan van Ours, Anne Gielen, Monday, February 13, 2012 - 00:00
Much research has documented that unemployment makes people unhappy. But does unhappiness spur the unemployed to look harder for jobs? And if so, why do governments need to help them find work with active labour market policies? CEPR DP8842 finds that the unhappiest of the unemployed do search harder for jobs, but don’t find them faster – suggesting that even the most motivated jobseekers could benefit from activation policies.
Samuel Bentolila, Juan Dolado, Juan Francisco Jimeno , Friday, January 20, 2012 - 00:00
Spain has a lower public debt-to-GDP ratio than not only Italy, but also France, Germany, and the UK. So why is it threatened with another downgrade? This column points to the fundamental problem with Spain’s economy – the insider-outsider divide that has led to the highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone. It proposes a single open-ended contract for all workers – a difficult solution whose time has come.
Michael Burda, Jennifer Hunt, Wednesday, November 2, 2011 - 00:00
Jobs and the lack of them are top of the agenda for policymakers and increasingly groups of protestors gathered in the financial districts of New York, London, and elsewhere. Unemployment in these countries is in danger of reaching 10%. In Germany, however, unemployment is below 7%. Some hail it as a miracle. This column finds a scientific – and far less inspiring – explanation.
Tommaso Monacelli, Vincenzo Quadrini, Antonella Trigari, Tuesday, October 18, 2011 - 00:00
Three years after the beginning of the Great Recession, the US unemployment rate remains at 9%, double its pre-crisis level. This column suggests the credit crunch may be behind this high number. It argues this is not because lower debt impairs the hiring ability of firms, but because it places firms in a less favourable bargaining position, allowing workers to negotiate higher wages, and thus reducing employment.
Roger E. A. Farmer , Thursday, August 18, 2011 - 00:00
One explanation for the 2007-09 global crisis is that consumers, markets, and politicians were gripped by “irrational exuberance” that led them to believe the record-high house prices and stock prices were sustainable. This column proposes a new explanation based on rational behaviour and microeconomic theory. It argues that however high stock prices rise, there is always an equilibrium in which they can rise further.
Erik Hurst, Loukas Karabarbounis, Mark Aguiar, Wednesday, August 17, 2011 - 00:00
When jobs are scarce, what else is there to do? This column looks at data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and finds that roughly 30% to 40% of time not spent working is put towards increased “home” production, 30% of time is allocated to increased sleep time and increased television watching, while other leisure activities make up a further 20% of the foregone market work hours.
Jennifer Smith, Monday, July 18, 2011 - 00:00
Labour-market policy can try to make it easier to get hired or harder to get fired. This column asks which of these approaches policymakers should prioritise. Focusing on the UK, it finds that while job-finding rates could be improved, policies aimed at reducing the amount of job losses during a recession play an equally important role despite being less in vogue.
Alfonso Rosolia, Federico Cingano, Sunday, July 17, 2011 - 00:00
If you lose your job, can you find a new one with a little help from your friends? This column presents evidence that displaced Italian workers with more employable friends and social contacts are unemployed for a shorter period of time.
Marga Peeters, Thursday, June 2, 2011 - 00:00
After the drama of Egypt’s revolution comes the economic reality – one of the catalysts for regime change was the country’s high unemployment. This column shows that the growing number of young people entering the job market will only add to the pressure. It argues that job creation in the private sector should be the number one priority for stimulating Egypt’s economic growth.
Pierella Paci, Ana Revenga, Bob Rijkers, Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 00:00
When a crisis hits, how should policymakers move to save jobs? This column reviews the evidence from policy responses to recent crises, highlighting the importance of being prepared. It finds that countries with prudent fiscal management and sound policy infrastructure tend to suffer relatively smaller and shorter negative shocks than others.