Is the new-Keynesian approach (Clarida, Galí, and Gertler 2000) right? Here I suggest that US data on inflation, unemployment, and vacancies is best viewed through the lens of old-Keynesian theory.
Farewell to the natural rate: Why unemployment persists
Roger E. A. Farmer , 6 January 2010
The predictive power of Google data: New evidence on US unemployment
Francesco D'Amuri, Juri Marcucci, 16 December 2009
Using Google trends is a trend in itself. In a recently published article, Ginsberg et al (2009) develop a simple model forecasting physician visits due to influenza-like illness using only the related query fraction on total queries as recorded by the Google search engine data, available weekly with a short delay.
Offshoring and home employment
Sascha O Becker, Karolina Ekholm, Marc Muendler, 9 November 2009
The phenomenon of offshoring has currently moved to the sidelines of public debate – eclipsed by the financial crisis and deep global recession - but may very well soon return to the policy agenda (Blinder 2009).
Offshoring – Positive or negative employment effects?
Christoph Moser, Dieter M. Urban, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 31 October 2009
It is probably fair to say that the effects of the growing international fragmentation of production chains on home country labour markets are still not fully understood.
Will the current economic crisis lead to more retirements?
Phillip B. Levine, Courtney C. Coile, 31 October 2009
Over the past year, numerous stories in the popular press have suggested that workers in the US will delay retirement as a result of the current economic crisis. Diminished retirement savings and home equity have shrunk expected retirement income, so the standard story suggest older individuals will stay in the labour force longer.
It is migration, stupid
Tito Boeri, 23 June 2009
Recessions are traditionally good times for left-wing parties, whose support for redistributive policies is perceived by voters as a sort of insurance scheme. If someone loses her job in the recession or gets poorer in the generalised downturn, there will be someone up there in the “centre of things” making sure that she receives some social support.
Labour markets on the verge of a regulation crisis
Giuseppe Bertola, 26 May 2009
Unemployment is now just about the same in France and the Eurozone as a whole (8.8%) and in the US (8.9%). This is a rather unusual coincidence. The trends in Figure 1 show that in the 1960s unemployment in France (and other European countries) was much lower than in the US.
Unemployment in the current crisis
Mike Elsby, Bart Hobijn, Aysegul Sahin, 14 February 2009
With the US economy officially in recession and other major economies set to follow suit, the spectre of rising unemployment once again occupies the minds of policymakers and media pundits alike.
What Keynes should have said
Roger E. A. Farmer , 4 February 2009
For more than seventy years, policy makers have used Keynesian monetary and fiscal policies to control recessions (Keynes 1936). Although these policies are widely perceived to have been successful in stabilising the business cycle, academics gave up on Keynesian theory in the 1970s.
Looking beyond the boom
Marcus Noland, Howard Pack, 1 August 2008
The Arab world is experiencing an economic boom spurred by surging energy prices, reinforced by reform. But most Arabs do not live in major oil-producing countries, and the region has the world’s lowest employment rate – less than half of adults are formally employed.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
DellaVigna, Durante, Knight, La Ferrara
Ostry, Berg, Tsangarides
Allen, Eichengreen, Evans
Greenwood, Guner, Kocharakov, Santos
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche