For the five years from December 2008 to November 2013, the US unemployment rate remained above 7%, peaking at 10% in October 2009. This period of high unemployment is not well understood. Macroeconomists have proposed a number of explanations for the extent and persistence of unemployment during the period, including:
Using product- and labour-market tightness to understand unemployment
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, 12 August 2014
How immigration benefits natives despite labour market imperfections and income redistribution
Michele Battisti, Gabriel Felbermayr, Giovanni Peri, Panu Poutvaara, 8 August 2014
A fierce policy debate with little insight from economists
Fears that immigration takes jobs away from natives and imposes significant costs on taxpayers continue to shape electoral campaigns and policy discourses in several countries. In a recent referendum, the Swiss population rejected the free movement of workers from the EU.
The Chinese labour market: High unemployment coexisting with a labour shortage
Yang Liu, 19 July 2014
In China, both a labour shortage and unemployment have emerged as problems in recent years. The number of university students scheduled to graduate in June 2014 is 7.27 million, increasing with 280,000 from 2013 (MHRSS 2014). Following 2013 – at the time considered the most difficult year for job seekers in history – 2014 is expected to be even harsher.
Globalisation, job security, and wages
Kerem Cosar, Nezih Guner, James R Tybout, 7 July 2014
How does increased openness to international trade affect workers’ wages and job security? This question is central to the public debate concerning the effects of globalisation, but convincing quantitative answers have been difficult to come by. One fundamental reason is that major trade liberalisation episodes have often coincided with labour reforms (Heckman and Pages 2004).
The Great Recession’s long-term damage
Laurence Ball, 1 July 2014
According to macroeconomics textbooks, a fall in aggregate demand causes a recession in which output drops below potential output – the normal level of production given the economy’s resources and technology. This effect is temporary, however.
The great British jobs and productivity mystery
João Paulo Pessoa, John Van Reenen, 28 June 2014
With some economic recovery having finally got underway, the UK is still feeling the repercussions of the so-called ‘Great Recession’. National output, as measured by GDP, fell by over 7% from its peak in January 2008 – the biggest fall since the inter-war years – and only returned to its pre-crisis level in April 2014 (NIESR 2014).
Falling real wages in the UK
David Blanchflower, Stephen Machin, 12 May 2014
There have been unprecedented falls in real wages in the UK since the start of the recession triggered by the financial crisis of 2008. This did not happen in previous economic downturns – median real wage growth slowed down or stalled, but it did not fall.
From sick man of Europe to economic superstar: Germany’s resurgence and the lessons for Europe
Christian Dustmann, Bernd Fitzenberger, Uta Schönberg, Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 3 February 2014
In the late 1990s and into the early 2000s, Germany was called ‘the sick man of Europe’ (Bertram 1997). Today, Germany is Europe’s economic superstar.
Labour markets reforms and unemployment: Estimating the effects of wage moderation in the Spanish economy
Miguel Cardoso, Rafael Doménech, Juan Ramón García, Camilo A. Ulloa, 20 December 2013
With its huge unemployment rate, if there is a country in need of assessment of labour markets reforms and wage moderation, it is Spain. In the third quarter of 2013 the unemployment rate reached 26% of the labour force, more than twice the Eurozone’s 12.1%.
A penny spent is a penny earned (by someone else): Measuring GDP
S Borağan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold, Jeremy J Nalewaik, Frank Schorfheide, Dongho Song, 3 December 2013
“A growing number of economists say that the government should shift its approach to measuring growth. The current system emphasises data on spending, but the bureau also collects data on income. In theory the two should match perfectly – a penny spent is a penny earned by someone else.
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CEPR Policy Research
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- What’s wrong with Europe?Baldini, Manasse