Debt seems to be a lightning rod for crises. This column presents new research showing that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP, and in particular its net external debt component, is indeed a significant crisis predictor for both advanced economies and emerging markets. Large current-account deficits and real exchange rate appreciation – the standard predictors – still matter, but we should be thinking more about net external debt.
Luis AV Catão, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Roel Beetsma, Konstantinos Mavromatis, Friday, December 21, 2012
Are Eurobonds a desirable solution to Eurozone members’ debt crises? Unhappily, it’s difficult to say. This column argues it very much depends on how the system is designed. However, looking at the most prominent proposals, it seems a cleverly designed Eurobonds system may well provide governments with the right incentives to encourage both issuing less debt and pursuing meaningful structural reform.
Richard Wood, Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Five years after the subprime bubble burst, the self-correcting nature of business cycles is being questioned and, subsequently, orthodox macroeconomic policy is starting to be challenged. This column introduces a radical rethink of options open to macroeconomic policymakers, suggesting that in order to simultaneously achieve economic stimulus without increasing debt, new money creation should be used to directly finance on-going budget deficits.
Alberto Alesina, Friday, November 30, 2012
Should debt-ridden and economically struggling Western governments be doing everything possible to reduce their deficits? Should we cut spending or hike taxes to reduce our debt-to-GDP ratios? This column argues that the answer is obvious: the cheapest, most effective and confidence-inspiring route is to cut spending. Coupled with other pro-growth policies, the evidence suggests that it is only really spending cuts that will spur private investment and economic recovery in Europe.
Rabah Arezki, Markus Brückner, Friday, June 15, 2012
Booming commodity prices generate large foreign currency inflows for exporting nations. This column argues that in countries with executive constraints and political competition windfalls from commodity booms lead to a significant reduction in external debt. In autocratic regimes, on the other hand, the windfalls are used to increase consumption expenditures.
Carmen M Reinhart, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Monday, March 26, 2012
Rich nations worldwide have a problem with debt. In the past, such problems have been dealt with by several tactics, including 'financial repression'. This column explains how the tactic works and documents its resurgence in the wake of the global and Eurozone crises.
Gianluca Cafiso, Roberto Cellini, Tuesday, March 20, 2012
As fiscal-consolidation policies are being implemented across the EU, a debate has been developing concerning the effects of such policies on the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio. This column examines past episodes and finds that following fiscal adjustment may have favourable effects in the short term but that the two-year cumulated changes have been mainly adverse.
Carmen M Reinhart, Monday, January 9, 2012
Financial crises often unfold according to common patterns, but the post-2007 contraction is in fact different from other post-WWII crises in its unusual severity, says Carmen Reinhart in CEPR DP8742. But the patterns of past crises may still provide clues on the future of housing, labour, and international financial markets. This paper outlines what that future might look like.
Raghuram Rajan, Viral Acharya, Thursday, November 24, 2011
Why do governments repay external borrowing? This column argues that myopic governments seeking popularity do not default when they are poor because they would lose access to debt markets and be forced to reduce spending. And they do not default when rich because of the adverse consequences to the domestic financial sector. This explains why governments continue servicing debt when default is beneficial for the country.
Charles Wyplosz, Friday, September 16, 2011
Europe’s debt crisis is unfolding while Japanese and US debt problems are on hold. The problem of public debt in advanced economies will be with us for decades. This column introduces a new Geneva Report on the World Economy that addresses the nuts, bolts, and worries surrounding the issue.
Barry Eichengreen, Jürgen von Hagen, Charles Wyplosz, Jeffrey Liebman, Robert Feldman, Friday, September 16, 2011
The 13th CEPR/ICMB Geneva Report on the World Economy takes a long-term perspective on debt sustainability, arguing that fiscal stabilisation is easier the faster the economy is growing.
Carmen M Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, Monday, March 28, 2011
With public debt in the US higher than it's been since 1945 and private debt burgeoning, governments are panicking about the impact of debt overhang on growth. In CEPR DP8310, Reinhart and Rogoff argue that governments have increasingly resorted to undercover restructuring by using the tools of "financial repression" that characterized the Bretton Woods era. If states continue to ignore or distort their debt problems, the authors predict, their bond markets could become ever more repressed.
Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Saturday, March 5, 2011
Commentators have recently floated the possibility of debt buybacks as a way of reducing a country's debt, particularly in the crisis-ridden Eurozone. Are buybacks a good idea? This column argues that, while there could be some circumstances in which debt buybacks are efficient, theory and experiences suggest that buybacks are generally costly and inefficient, and in practice (concerted) debt exchanges have been preferred.
Christiane Nickel, Philipp Rother, Lilli Zimmermann, Sunday, November 21, 2010
Record levels of government debt in the EU have forced some countries to call for help. This column presents data from the EU between 1985 and 2009 covering episodes when governments have tried to rapidly lower public debt. It shows that appropriate policies, especially on the expenditure side, can help make this reduction sustainable.
Paul Krugman, Thursday, November 18, 2010
Debt is the crux of advanced economies’ current policy debates. Some argue for fiscal expansion to avoid recession and deflation. Others claim that you can’t solve a debt-created problem with more debt. This column explains the core logic of a new model by Eggertsson and Krugman in which debt shocks and policy reactions can be examined. Relying on heterogeneous agents, the model naturally produces the paradox of thrift but also finds new supply-side paradoxes, those of toil and flexibility. The model suggests that most economists have been misthinking the issues and that actual policy in the US and EU is misguided.
Charles Wyplosz, Monday, May 3, 2010
Eurozone members, the IMF, and the ECB have announced significant commitments to assist debt-laden Greece. This column outlines a dark scenario in which the plan fails and contagion spreads, necessitating further assistance to other indebted Eurozone governments. That could risk high inflation or debt problems for the entire Eurozone.
Carmen M Reinhart, Friday, April 9, 2010
Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland talks to Romesh Vaitilingam about the sequencing of the cycle of debt build-ups – from private debt surges to banking crises to sovereign debt crises – and the four ‘deadly D’s’ that once again threaten many governments as a consequence of the current crisis – deficits, debt, downgrade and default. The interview was recorded at the Royal Economic Society’s annual conference at the University of Surrey in March 2010.
Domingo Cavallo, Friday, November 13, 2009
Domingo Cavallo, former minister of economy and minister of foreign affairs in Argentina, talks to Romesh Vaitilingam about the dangers of a future resurgence in world inflation, as economies that have adopted very expansionary monetary and fiscal policies in response to the crisis are tempted to ‘inflate away the debt’. The interview was recorded at the Global Economic Symposium in Schleswig-Holstein in September 2009.
Enrique G. Mendoza, Thursday, February 12, 2009
This column rehabilitates Irving Fisher’s debt-deflation theory to explain the current crisis. It suggests that fiscal stimulus will do little to prevent the crisis from becoming a protracted slump because the problem lies in finance. A cure will require reversing deflation and restarting the credit system.
Carmen M Reinhart, Monday, January 26, 2009
Financial crises are historically associated with the “4 deadly D’s”: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises; with government revenues dragged down, fiscal deficits worsen; deficits lead to debt; as debt piles up rating downgrades follow. For the most fortunate countries, the crisis does not lead to the deadliest D: default, but for many it has.