Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets: Evidence from capital flows
Dennis Reinhardt, Cameron McLoughlin, Ludovic Gauvin 05 November 2014
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, policymakers and academics alike discussed how uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic policymaking has impacted domestic investment. At the same time, concerns regarding the spillover impact of monetary policy in advanced economies on emerging market economies featured strongly in the international policy debate. This column draws the two debates together, and examines how policy uncertainty in advanced economies has spilled over to emerging markets via portfolio capital flows. It finds remarkable differences in the spillover effects of EU vs. US policy uncertainty.
In the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, advanced economies experienced heightened levels of uncertainty in macroeconomic policymaking. Against this backdrop, policymakers debated the domestic and global spillover implications of advanced-country policy uncertainty (e.g. IMF 2013). At the same time, the potential for monetary policy settings in advanced countries to spill over to emerging market economies (EMEs) via capital flows was hotly contested in both academic and policymaker circles (e.g. Fratzscher et al. 2013).
International finance Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy
capital flows, Capital inflows, emerging markets, policy uncertainty, spillovers, global crisis, monetary policy, macroeconomic policy, risk aversion, home bias
Macroeconomic policy mix in the transatlantic economy
Moreno Bertoldi, Philip R. Lane, Valérie Rouxel-Laxton, Paolo Pesenti 24 October 2014
The reason for the divergent macroeconomic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic after the Crisis remains a hotly debated subject. The topic was also discussed at the recent “Macroeconomic Policy Mix in the Transatlantic Economy” workshop. This column summarises the main discussions at the workshop. Other covered topics included secular stagnation, the output effects of fiscal consolidation, cross-border banking (as a source and propagator of shocks), and the asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policies.
The reason why the macroeconomic policy mix has been different on the two sides of the Atlantic in recent years remains a hotly debated issue. Was it due to a different reading of the root causes of the Global Crisis and, therefore, of the type of policy response considered most appropriate?
Global crisis Macroeconomic policy
eurozone, US, macroeconomic policy, transatlantic economy, global crisis
What macroeconomic policies for the Eurozone?
Francesco Giavazzi, Guido Tabellini 25 September 2014
In a recent column, the authors suggested coordinating monetary and fiscal expansions in the Eurozone through a money-financed temporary tax cut. The effectiveness of their proposal, however, has been questioned. In this column, the authors address some of the criticisms. They argue that the counter-cyclical fiscal policies adopted by the US and the UK, together with monetary easing, had a stabilising effect on output. Moral hazard due to the more lax monetary and fiscal policies is avoidable, increasing the credibility of the future spending cuts.
In his recent article on Vox, Roberto Perotti takes issue with the proposal of coordinating a monetary and fiscal expansion in the Eurozone through a money-financed temporary tax cut, which we advocated in a column on 21 August (see Perotti 2014, Giavazzi and Tabellini 2014). He does not question the effectiveness of the proposal in stimulating aggregate demand.
Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy
eurozone, Eurozone economy, macroeconomic policy, Budget deficit, fiscal expansion
Rethinking macroeconomic policy: Getting granular
Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Paolo Mauro 31 May 2013
The Global Crisis has shaken the consensus on how to run macroeconomic policy. Three years ago, the authors discussed this issue on VoxEU.org. This column takes a more granular look at new efforts to rethink macroeconomic policy. It takes stock of early results and provides a more detailed agenda for the key issues that should keep policymakers and academic macroeconomists busy in the next few years.
The global economic crisis has kept forcing policymakers and academics to rethink macroeconomic policy. First was the Lehman crisis, which showed how much they had underestimated the dangers posed by the financial system, and the limits of monetary policy. Then it was the euro crisis, which forced them to rethink the workings of currency unions, and fiscal policy. And, throughout, they have had to improvise, from the use of unconventional monetary policies, to the initial fiscal stimulus, to the speed of fiscal consolidation, to the use of macroprudential instruments.
Solving the macroeconomic policy challenge in Europe
Richard Wood 19 December 2012
Five years after the subprime bubble burst, the self-correcting nature of business cycles is being questioned and, subsequently, orthodox macroeconomic policy is starting to be challenged. This column introduces a radical rethink of options open to macroeconomic policymakers, suggesting that in order to simultaneously achieve economic stimulus without increasing debt, new money creation should be used to directly finance on-going budget deficits.
Countries in Europe are either slipping into recession or experiencing worsening depression. Economies are headed in the wrong direction, and the malaise is spreading. The current orthodoxies are failing.
Subprime, debt, macroeconomic policy, quantitative easing
Did the Indian capital controls work as a tool of macroeconomic policy?
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah 20 November 2012
Can we agree that capital controls are an effective tool for macroeconomic policy? If so, should they be permanent or temporary? This column argues that under a permanent system of capital controls, a country will always bear costs whether there is a surge or capital flight or not. Looking at the Indian experience, it’s clear that capital controls do not necessarily help a government meet its macroeconomic goals in times of need.
The empirical literature on the effectiveness of capital controls for macroeconomic management has generally found that transitory capital controls have a relatively limited impact on the magnitude of flows (Magud et. al. 2011). Controls appear to influence the composition of capital flows, but they seem to do so only for a short time. Often, economic agents can find ways to circumvent controls, particularly those on specific types of flows.
India, capital flows, macroeconomic policy, capital controls
Jackson Hole, the crisis and policy responses: A new orthodoxy
Richard Wood 31 August 2012
The crisis is deepening in Europe, and recession is spreading globally. This column argues that macroeconomic policies have failed to overcome the dual problems of flagging aggregate demand and high and spiralling public debt. It urges policymakers to abandon failed orthodoxies and irrelevant treaties and consider new, alternative solutions.
Demand, output, manufacturing activity and exports are weakening in many parts of the industrialised world. Quantitative easing policies have generally run their course, as interest rates are at the zero bound or thereabouts. In the Eurozone it is questionable whether the ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy interest rate approach is helpful or meaningful, or whether it can be sustained. In those countries suffering the worst collapse in GDP, authorities are applying draconian ‘fiscal austerity’ policies.
Global crisis Macroeconomic policy
global crisis, macroeconomic policy, Eurozone crisis
The future of macroeconomic policy: Nine tentative conclusions
Olivier Blanchard 23 March 2011
The global economic crisis has taught us to question our most cherished beliefs about the way we conduct macroeconomic policy. In this column, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard lays out his thoughts, arguing that we are far from a new Washington Consensus. Exploration is the order of the day.
The global economic crisis forces us to question our most cherished beliefs about the way we conduct macroeconomic policy. With this in mind, I have just organised, together with David Romer, Joe Stiglitz, and Michael Spence, a conference at the IMF on "Rethinking macroeconomic policy”.
monetary policy, fiscal policy, macroeconomic policy
Anna Pavlova, Roberto Rigobon 15 February 2011
International macro-finance is a new area of open economy macroeconomics that brings portfolio choice and asset pricing considerations into models of international macroeconomics. This column argues that the recent global crisis illustrates just how important these considerations are. It surveys recent developments in international macro-finance and suggests several promising directions for future research.
Financial markets and their role in international risk sharing have inspired a vast body of theoretical literature. Over the past 40 years, international finance and economics has evolved into a vibrant field spreading from the basic international version of the capital asset pricing model to some of the most sophisticated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.
Frontiers of economic research International finance
financial regulation, macroeconomic policy, international macro finance
Automatic stabilisers and the economic crisis in Europe and the US
Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest, Andreas Peichl 17 September 2010
While debate rages over the appropriate size and timing of fiscal expansions, this column points out that much less attention is devoted to role of the automatic stabilisers in the tax and transfer system. It compares these stabilisers in Europe and the US, finding that social transfers play a key role in the stabilisation of disposable incomes and consumer demand.
The big difference between the "great recession" and the "Great Depression" was government policy – especially stabilisation policy (Eichengreen and O'Rourke 2010). This time governments realised that they had to provide Keynesian stimulus while ensuring that the financial system did not collapse.
Global crisis Macroeconomic policy
fiscal stimulus, global crisis, macroeconomic policy, automatic stabilisers