The butterfly defect: How to manage systemic risk

Ian Goldin interviewed by Romesh Vaitilingam,

Date Published

Fri, 11/21/2014

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See Also

Goldin, Ian and Mike Mariathasan (2014), The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about It, Princeton University Press.

Winner of the 2014 Best Book Award, Migration and Citizenship Section of the American Political Science Association

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Topics

Financial markets Global economy Global governance
Tags
financial institutions, globalisation, systemic risk

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Related Article(s)

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September 2014

Globalisation and the rise of the robots

Dalia Marin 15 November 2014

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In a famous book, the two economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee from MIT describe how recent advances in artificial intelligence are changing our lives: driverless cars, drones for package delivery, computer programs to diagnose illnesses, intelligent pattern recognition software that replaces lawyers, 3D printing, etc (Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014). They call these developments the ‘second machine age’.

In this column, I want to discuss two hypotheses of how the second machine age may affect the world we live in.

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Topics:  Education Labour markets Productivity and Innovation

Tags:  globalisation, second machine age, skill unemployment, skill premium

Demography and economics: Look past the past

Charles A.E. Goodhart, Philipp Erfurth 04 November 2014

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Introduction

Our history is our database. When seeking to peer dimly into the future, our normal response is to examine what happened in (similar) past episodes and then to extrapolate those outcomes into the future. This assumption, that the future will mimic the past, is hard-wired into almost all our forecasting exercises, from the most simple to the econometrically and technically most complex.

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Topics:  Global economy Labour markets

Tags:  forecasting, demographics, Ageing, fertility, globalisation, savings, consumption, life cycle, old age, healthcare, Retirement, investment, interest rates, labour productivity, technology, technology transfer

Monetary policy and long-term trends

Charles A.E. Goodhart, Philipp Erfurth 03 November 2014

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Introduction

There has been a long-term downward trend in the share and strength of labour in national income, which is depressing both demand and inflation. This has prompted ever more expansionary monetary policies. While understandable, indeed appropriate, within a short-term business cycle context, this has exacerbated longer-term trends, increasing inequality and financial distortions. Perhaps the most fundamental problem has been over-reliance on debt finance (leverage).

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Topics:  Financial markets Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy

Tags:  monetary policy, Inequality, debt, leverage, wages, labour share, globalisation, consumption, propensity to consume, fiscal policy, Ageing, interest rates, investment, asset prices, housing, house prices, exchange rates, global crisis, mortgages, sub-prime crisis, Macroprudential policy, structural reforms, balance sheets, deleveraging, equity, shared-equity mortgages, Help to Buy

Connecting Brazil to the world

Patricia Ellen, Jaana Remes 12 July 2014

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Despite a decade of rapid growth and falling poverty rates, Brazil has failed to match the global average for income growth – let alone to achieve the kind of impressive gains posted by other rapidly transforming emerging economies. As of 2012, Brazil had become the world’s seventh-largest economy, but it ranked only 95th in the world for gross national income per capita (IHS Economics and Country Risk data). To raise household living standards, Brazil needs to find a new formula for accelerating productivity growth.

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Topics:  Development International trade Productivity and Innovation

Tags:  development, growth, productivity, globalisation, MERCOSUR, trade, openness, Brazil, global value chains

R&D internationalisation during the Global Crisis

Bernhard Dachs, Georg Zahradnik 06 July 2014

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Foreign firms’ share of total business R&D expenditure increased during the last three decades in almost all countries where data is available, but this trend stopped with the Global Crisis of 2008–2009. In most countries, R&D of foreign firms was more severely affected by the crisis than R&D of domestic firms. However, the crisis did not lead to a new global distribution of overseas R&D expenditure.

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Topics:  Global crisis Productivity and Innovation

Tags:  R&D, globalisation, multinationals, FDI, innovation, global crisis, persistence, autonomy, subsidiaries

Globalisation, job security, and wages

Kerem Cosar, Nezih Guner, James R Tybout 07 July 2014

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How does increased openness to international trade affect workers’ wages and job security? This question is central to the public debate concerning the effects of globalisation, but convincing quantitative answers have been difficult to come by. One fundamental reason is that major trade liberalisation episodes have often coincided with labour reforms (Heckman and Pages 2004). Colombia is a case in point. As Figure 1 shows, this country experienced deindustrialisation, higher job turnover rates, and heightened wage inequality in the years following its 1986–1991 trade liberalisation.

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Topics:  International trade Labour markets

Tags:  productivity, unemployment, globalisation, wages, trade liberalisation, Inequality, labour market reforms, exports, Colombia, job security

Global income distribution: From the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession

Christoph Lakner , Branko Milanovic 27 May 2014

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The period between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Great Recession saw probably the most profound reshuffle of individual incomes on the global scale since the Industrial Revolution. This was driven by high growth rates of populous and formerly poor or very poor countries like China, Indonesia, and India; and, on the other hand, by the stagnation or decline of incomes in sub-Saharan Africa and post-communist countries as well as among poorer segments of the population in rich countries.

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Topics:  Global economy Politics and economics Poverty and income inequality

Tags:  democracy, income inequality, globalisation, Inequality

Human capital and income inequality: Some facts and some puzzles

Amparo Castelló-Climent, Rafael Doménech 23 April 2014

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The rise of income inequality in many countries from 1985 onwards, and particularly during the recent crisis, has prompted a current debate on the causes and consequences of higher inequality and its effects on future growth (see, for example, OECD 2011, IMF 2014, or Ostry et al. 2014). As a result, and despite the slight reduction from 1960 to 1985, the average income Gini coefficient for developing countries was almost the same in 1960 (0.42) as it was in 2005 (0.41).

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Topics:  Development Education Poverty and income inequality

Tags:  education, globalisation, human capital, Inequality, skill-biased technological change

Gross trade accounting: A transparent method to discover global value chain-related information behind official trade data: Part 2

Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Kunfu Zhu 16 April 2014

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Analytical background

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Topics:  International trade

Tags:  competitiveness, globalisation, trade, comparative advantage, global value chains, global supply chain, statistics

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