The next sudden stop

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 7 January 2014

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The ominous facts are well known – the strongest predictors of financial crises are domestic credit booms and external debts (Reinhart and Rogoff 2011). In emerging markets, credit booms are generally preceded by large capital inflows (Reinhart and Reinhart 2010).

Topics: Financial markets, International finance
Tags: capital flows, emerging markets, global financial crisis, liability dollarisation, sudden stops, tapering, Turkey

The mother of all sudden stops: Capital flows and reversals in Europe, 1919-1932

Olivier Accominotti, Barry Eichengreen, 14 September 2013

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From 2001 through 2008 one half of Europe received enormous capital inflows from the other half of Europe and the rest of the world.

Topics: Economic history, International finance
Tags: capital-account reversals, East Europe, sudden stops

A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?

Eduardo Cavallo, Andrew Powell, 30 August 2013

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Emerging markets have slowed alongside a rise in longer term US rates. The fear of ‘sudden stops’ in capital flows has risen. The academic literature on capital flows, perhaps as in other areas, has tended to focus on contemporaneous concerns:

Topics: Global crisis, Macroeconomic policy
Tags: capital flows, sudden stops

Sudden stops in the Eurozone

Jean Pisani-Ferry, Silvia Merler, 2 April 2012

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Many analysts and observers have put forward that the euro crisis is a balance-of-payments crisis at least as much as a fiscal crisis (e.g. Carney 2012, Giavazzi and Spaventa 2011, Sinn 2012, Wolf 2011).

Topics: EU policies
Tags: balance of payments, capital flows, current account, sudden stops

The G20 communiqué: Work in progress but good news for emerging markets

Guillermo Calvo, 6 April 2009

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From the perspective of Financial Architecture, the G20 communiqué represents a major and positive change in the way world leaders view financial crises. They have definitely moved from a view according to which crises are largely homegrown, to a view that allows for the existence of systemic crises, chain-reaction accidents involving many innocent bystanders.

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: emerging markets, global crisis debate, sudden stops

Lender of last resort: Put it on the agenda!

Guillermo Calvo, 23 March 2009

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The subprime crisis is a massive failure of the shadow banking system that has affected all corners of the capital market and triggered worldwide deleveraging. We are in a severe credit crunch. Savers distrust private-sector dissavers, which gives rise to a fall in aggregate demand and a search for safe assets (“flight to quality”).

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: emerging markets, global crisis debate, lender of last resort, sudden stops

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