In most aspects of their lives humans must plan forwards. They take decisions today that affect their future in complex interactions with the decisions of others. When taking such decisions, the available information is only ever a subset of the universe of past and present information, as no individual or group of individuals can be aware of all the relevant information.
Why DSGEs crash during crises
David F. Hendry, Grayham E. Mizon, 18 June 2014
Restructuring sovereign debt, 1950–2010: From process to outcomes
Udaibir S Das, Michael G. Papaioannou, Christoph Trebesch, 28 November 2012
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) provide an impressive account of the history of sovereign debt crises over the past 200 years. However, they do not discuss the patterns of crisis resolution in detail. How frequent are sovereign debt restructurings? What amounts have been restructured? How long does it take to restructure sovereign bonds or loans?
Precautionary savings in the Great Recession
Ashoka Mody, Damiano Sandri, Franziska Ohnsorge, 22 February 2012
A key feature of the Great Recession was a striking increase in uncertainty. The volatility of real GDP increased (left chart in Figure 1) and, at the same time, the higher unemployment rate raised the risks of job losses, longer unemployment durations, and, hence, of severe reductions in income (see Carroll 1992 for a similar interpretation of unemployment rates).
Political constraints in the aftermath of financial crises
Francesco Trebbi, Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, 21 February 2012
Financial crises of all colours (banking, currency, inflation, or debt crises) leave deep marks on an economy. Deep economic contractions, both in output and employment, are systematic in the interim and in the aftermath of financial crises, as thoroughly documented in research by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and Reinhart and Reinhart (2010).
Labour markets on the verge of a regulation crisis
Giuseppe Bertola, 26 May 2009
Unemployment is now just about the same in France and the Eurozone as a whole (8.8%) and in the US (8.9%). This is a rather unusual coincidence. The trends in Figure 1 show that in the 1960s unemployment in France (and other European countries) was much lower than in the US.
- Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBookTeulings, Baldwin
- Can large primary surpluses solve Europe’s debt problem?Eichengreen, Panizza
- The unrecognised benefits of grade inflationBoleslavsky, Cotton
- The US manufacturing base is surprisingly strongMoran, Oldenski
- Long-term damage of the US court’s Argentinian debt rulingFrankel
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
- Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A new modelKrugman