Patricia Jackson, Monday, October 13, 2014 - 00:00

Christian Thimann, Friday, October 10, 2014 - 00:00

Jon Danielsson, Kevin James, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer, Sunday, June 8, 2014 - 00:00

Risk forecasting is central to financial regulations, risk management, and macroprudential policy. This column raises concerns about the reliance on risk forecasting, since risk forecast models have high levels of model risk – especially when the models are needed the most, during crises. Policymakers should be wary of relying solely on such models. Formal model-risk analysis should be a part of the regulatory design process.

Stéphane Hallegatte, Saturday, April 14, 2012 - 00:00

Earlier this week, much of Southeast Asia was stunned by an earthquake that for a moment brought back memories of the devastating tsunami of 2004. The cost of such natural disasters has been on the rise in recent years due to an increase in the number of people living and working in high-risk areas. This column explores some of the reasons behind this increase.

Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Friday, June 17, 2011 - 00:00

Financial risk models have been widely criticised for both theoretical and practical failures, especially during the recent financial crisis. In the second of two columns, the authors outline why the shortcomings of risk models matter before making suggestions for how the financial industry and supervisors should use models in practice.

Avinash Persaud, Saturday, June 13, 2009 - 00:00

There is a strong consensus that banks had insufficient reserves set aside for a rainy day and that they should be required to hold more capital. This column says we should differentiate institutions less by what they are called and more by how they are funded. Encouraging individual risks to flow to those who can absorb them would make the system safer and introduce new players with risk capacities.

CEPR Policy Research