Before the 2008 crisis, the mainstream worldview among US macroeconomists was that economic fluctuations were regular and essentially self-correcting. In this column, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard explains how this benign view of fluctuations took hold in the profession, and what lessons have been learned since the crisis. He argues that macroeconomic policy should aim to keep the economy away from ‘dark corners’, where it can malfunction badly.
Olivier Blanchard, Friday, October 3, 2014
Philippe Bacchetta, Kenza Benhima, Sunday, August 24, 2014
Among the various explanations behind global imbalances, the role of corporate saving has received relatively little attention. This column argues that corporate saving is quantitatively relevant, and proposes a theory that is consistent with the stylised facts and useful for understanding the current phase of global rebalancing. The theory implies that, while the economic contraction originating in developed countries has pushed interest rates towards the zero lower bound, the recent growth slowdown in emerging countries could push them out of it.
Thorsten Beck, Haki Pamuk, Burak Uras, Monday, April 21, 2014
A recent literature shows that access to formal savings devices improves entrepreneurial outcomes in developing economies. This column presents research comparing the effect of saving in formal accounts with alternative, less formal measures. Findings suggest that entrepreneurs use formal saving to insulate themselves from household consumption commitments.
Emanuele Baldacci, Sanjeev Gupta, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Monday, March 31, 2014
The recent debate on the link between austerity and growth has focused on the short run. This column discusses recent research into the link between fiscal consolidation and medium-term growth under different financial conditions. If credit is not available to consumers and investors, private demand is less able to compensate for cutbacks in public demand, so large spending cuts can have a negative effect on growth. Difficult financial conditions probably explain why fiscal adjustments that worked in the 1990s have not produced similar beneficial effects on growth in recent years.
Petra Gerlach-Kristen, Rossana Merola, Conor O'Toole, Sunday, December 1, 2013
Households tend to smooth their consumption and that’s why expenditures do not display a large variability over time. However, the recent financial crisis has been associated with a large decrease in consumption in certain countries. This column presents evidence that a drop in income during a crisis leads to a lower short-run consumption. Furthermore, micro data analysis shows that some households are affected more than others. Thus, policy recommendations can be made only after taking household heterogeneity into account.
Peter N. Gal, Gabor Pinter, Saturday, September 21, 2013
Renting capital goods makes up 20% of total capital expenses by US companies and this type of capital spending increases in downturns. This column discusses research showing that the systematic pattern of corporate leasing can be linked to credit constraints. This means that a robust rental sector has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of financial disruptions when obtaining credit becomes difficult.
Thorsten Beck, Berrak Buyukkarabacak, Felix Rioja, Neven Valev, Thursday, July 9, 2009
How does financial development affect macroeconomic outcomes? Previous studies have relied on aggregate measures. This column introduces a data set that distinguishes between lending to enterprises and households and investigates the consequences for economic growth, income inequality, and consumption smoothing.