What do we know about the causes of the crisis?

Andrew K Rose, Mark M. Spiegel, 2 August 2010



The Great Recession was the most important macroeconomic event in a generation. Policymakers are scrambling to guard against any repeat of these cataclysmic events.

Topics: Global crisis, Macroeconomic policy
Tags: early warning, global crisis

Reserves and other early warning indicators work in crisis after all

Jeffrey Frankel, George Saravelos, 1 July 2010



With aftershocks of the recent global financial earthquake still being felt in some parts of the world, it would be useful to have a set of “early warning indicators” to tell us what countries are most vulnerable. Many scholarly papers in the past have been devoted to identifying leading indicators of crises (e.g. Rose and Spiegel 2009a).

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: early warning, global crisis, reserves

Could an early warning system have predicted the crisis?

Andrew K Rose, Mark M. Spiegel, 3 August 2009



The 2008 global financial crisis is notable for a number of reasons, including most obviously its severity and speed. The international span of the crisis has also been remarkable; essentially all the industrialised countries have been affected, as well as a large number of developing economies.

Topics: Global economy, Macroeconomic policy
Tags: early warning, financial crises, MIMIC

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