For decades, policymakers’ perception has been that large capital inflows can fuel booms in asset prices. If this were true, bonanzas in capital inflows would imply an important risk to financial stability, since booms in asset prices are leading indicators of financial crises.
Capital inflows and booms in asset prices: Going beyond the current account
Eduardo Olaberría, 7 December 2013
Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Luis Garicano, Tano Santos, 24 March 2013
Vox readers can download CEPR Discussion Paper 9404 for free here.
Understanding bubbly episodes
Jaume Ventura, Vasco M. Carvalho, Alberto Martin, 9 September 2012
Wealth has fluctuated substantially in recent US macroeconomic history. Figure 1 below documents this by plotting the evolution of real net worth of US households and non-profit organisations between 1950 and 2010. Up until the early 1990s the evolution of wealth seems relatively stable, displaying only mild and short-lived fluctuations around its trend.
Market psychology, high unemployment and rational bubbles
Roger E. A. Farmer , 18 August 2011
According to a popular narrative (e.g. Shiller 2008), the Great Recession was caused by a bubble in the housing market. When the bubble burst, households were left with mortgages that exceeded the values of their houses. When they stopped spending, the resulting fall in consumer demand triggered an increase in unemployment.
Simple explanations for global financial instability and the cure: Keep it simple
Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Jacopo Carmassi, 13 August 2009
A remarkable feature of the burgeoning literature on the global financial crisis is vast disagreement about its main causes. Symptoms are often treated as autonomous developments requiring separate correction. There is thus a high risk that the legitimate pursuit of a more stable financial system will lead to a potpourri of excessive and damaging regulatory restrictions.
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- 21st Century Challenges: The Mobile Middle Class13 - 13 March 2014 / Royal Geographical Society, 1 Kensington Gore, SW7 London / Royal Geographical Society (with IBG)
- The 13th Annual GEP Postgraduate Conference 20141 - 2 May 2014 / Nottingham / Sponsored by Nottingham Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy (GEP) University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
- Exchange Rates and External Adjustment2 - 3 June 2014 / Zurich / Swiss National Bank
- 13th Summer School in International Development Economics: Investment, Saving and Wellbeing in Developing Countries10 - 13 June 2014 / Palazzo Feltrinelli, Gargnano, Lake Garda (Italy) / Organisers: Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Paolo Baffi Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods of the University of Milan, Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods and Business Strategies of the University of Milan Bicocca, Vilfredo Pareto Doctoral Program in Economics of the University of Turin, The Lombardy Advanced School of Economic Research (LASER).
- 3rd WB-BE Research Conference: Financing growth: Levers, Boosters and Brakes23 - 24 June 2014 / Banco de España headquarters in Madrid / This conference is sponsored by Banco de España and The World Bank