Jobs and growth are still linked (that is, Okun’s Law still holds)

Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prakash Loungani 26 January 2013

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Unemployment rates remain high in most advanced countries. Many scholars have drawn attention to an apparent decoupling of unemployment increases from output declines during the Great Recession (e.g. IMF 2010, Cazes et al. 2011).

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Topics:  Global crisis Labour markets

Tags:  unemployment, jobless recovery, Okun, output

US unemployment: Neither natural nor unnatural

Guillermo Calvo, Fabrizio Coricelli, Pablo Ottonello 24 July 2012

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The Great Recession in the US has been followed by high and persistent unemployment. Although output recovered its pre-crisis level, the unemployment rate is still above its pre-crisis level, a situation that is popularly called ‘jobless recovery’ (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. US jobless recovery

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Topics:  Global crisis Global economy Labour markets

Tags:  US, unemployment, jobless recovery, Great Recession

The case of the US jobless recovery: Assertive management meets the double hangover

Robert J. Gordon 22 August 2011

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High and persistent unemployment in the US has emerged as one of the most important macroeconomic legacies of the 2007-09 world economic crisis. While the decline of business activity in the US was no larger than in Europe, the US is an outlier in its outsized response of the unemployment rate to its decline of output (IMF 2011).

Here we quantify the shortfall of US employment – some 10.4 million missing jobs – and ask: Why did the number of jobs decline so much and why has it recovered so little? Two sets of causes stand out.

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Topics:  Global crisis

Tags:  US, US economy, jobless recovery, US jobs

The Great Recession ended in May 2009: Evidence from unemployment and the stock market in the last fourteen recessions

Roger E. A. Farmer 05 October 2009

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A number of economists, including Chairman Bernanke of the US Federal Reserve, have declared that the current recession is very likely over (Robb, 2009), and two reporters for Forbes (Wesbury and Stein, 2009) have dated the end of the recession to May 2009. This column adds credence to that statement by studying the past behaviour of the stock market and the unemployment rate.

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Topics:  Global crisis Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  recession, NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, jobless recovery, double dip

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