The anaemic recovery from the Global Crisis and the downward trend in real interest rates since 1980 have revived interest in the idea of secular stagnation. This column argues that if the US, UK, and Eurozone had not pursued contractionary fiscal policies from 2010 onwards, the recovery would not have been so slow and nominal interest rates would no longer be at the zero lower bound. Expanding the stock of government debt would have ameliorated, not worsened, the shortage of safe assets.
Simon Wren-Lewis, Friday, January 30, 2015
Stijn Claessens, Friday, April 18, 2014
Stijn Claessens talks to Viv Davies about the recent IMF book titled 'Global Crises: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses', co-edited with M Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabian Valencia. The book provides a comprehensive overview of current research into financial crises and the policy lessons learned. They discuss crisis prevention and management, and the crisis in the Eurozone. The interview was recorded in April 2014.
Olivier Blanchard, Monday, January 27, 2014
The global economy seems to be on the mend. In this column, IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard provides a quick overview of the likely developments. The key points are that the recovery is happening as expected, but it remains fragile and uneven across major economies. Normalising monetary policy poses risks for vulnerable emerging markets and deflation is a real concern for the Eurozone.
Antonio Fatás, Ilian Mihov, Wednesday, August 14, 2013
The last recession in the US ended in June 2009. Yet, three years on, unemployment remains high. This column argues that we need to better understand how business cycles of recession and expansion work. Detailed evidence from the US suggests that recoveries are not simply mirror images of recessions. Because of its policy relevance, economists and policymakers must acknowledge that the pattern of recession/recovery has significantly changed over the last half century.
Richard Wood, Saturday, May 11, 2013
The world economy seems to be acting in unexpected ways. This column argues that austerity and quantitative easing do not seem to be working out as advertised. There is an urgent need to review the effectiveness of alternative macroeconomic policy approaches, and prepare an internationally agreed pro-growth plan to reflate distressed economies. The outlines of one such plan are presented.
Olivier Blanchard, Wednesday, February 13, 2013
The new year has provided cheer for macroeconomic optimists. This column by Olivier Blanchard, one of the world’s leading economists, argues that important progress has been made in putting the crisis behind us, but that recovery continues to be hampered by the need for fiscal consolidation and a weak financial system.
Carmen M Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, Monday, October 22, 2012
The strength of the US recovery has become a political issue in the presidential election. The US is doing better than other advanced economies, but famous economists associated with the Romney campaign claim this is not good enough. The US, they argue, is different. Here, the masters of the 'this time is different' research genre – Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff – argue that US historical performance is not different when it is properly measured, so the economy’s performance is better than expected.
Lucrezia Reichlin, Domenico Giannone, Jasper McMahon, Saverio Simonelli, Wednesday, May 2, 2012
According to official statistics, the UK and Europe are heading for recession, while the US is recovering. This has led some to suggest that European economies are moving in the opposite direction to the US. This column, written by the co-founders of Now-Casting, presents new now-casting estimates that put Europe and the US even further apart.
Prakash Loungani, M Ayhan Kose, Marco E Terrones, Tuesday, April 24, 2012
How different is the current recovery from past ones? How do prospects differ between advanced and emerging economies? This column argues that the ongoing recovery in advanced economies has so far paralleled the weak and protracted recovery following the 1991 global recession to a surprising degree, partly because of challenges in Europe. In contrast, the recovery in emerging market economies has been unusually strong.
Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda, Monday, April 23, 2012
The world economy is showing scattered signs of improvement but remains fragile according to official forecasts. This column summarises the latest update of the Brookings Institution-FT Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery. It confirms some positive signs but also much to worry about as the world economy continues to meander with no clear sense of direction.
Ronald U Mendoza , Wednesday, June 9, 2010
As the G20 changes its recommendations from fiscal stimulus towards fiscal austerity, this column argues that policymakers should be careful not to leave the most vulnerable behind. It says that robust social spending and investments are needed even under tight fiscal conditions – stock markets may bounce back, but a generation growing up in poverty may not.
Prakash Kannan, Thursday, November 19, 2009
Will the economic recovery be U-, V-, W-, or L-shaped? This column warns that recoveries from recessions caused by financial crises are slower than others, due to stressed credit conditions that persist even after output begins to recover. It thus recommends policies aimed at recapitalising financial institutions, resolving distressed financial assets, ensuring adequate provision of liquidity, and expediting bankruptcy proceedings.
Stephen Cecchetti, Marion Kohler, Christian Upper, Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Is the current turmoil unique? This column examines three decades of financial crises and says that it stands out. But the variation in past experiences suggests that the major economies may regain their pre-crisis levels of output by the second half of 2010.