Global Crises: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses

Stijn Claessens interviewed by Viv Davies, 18 Apr 2014

Stijn Claessens talks to Viv Davies about the recent IMF book titled 'Global Crises: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses', co-edited with M Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabian Valencia. The book provides a comprehensive overview of current research into financial crises and the policy lessons learned. They discuss crisis prevention and management, and the crisis in the Eurozone. The interview was recorded in April 2014.

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Stijn Claessens, M Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, Fabian Valencia (eds) Global Crises: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses (IMF, February, 2014) 

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Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: banking crises, debt, default, financial crises, fiscal deficit, global crisis, recovery

Is the world recovery really strengthening?

Olivier Blanchard, 27 January 2014

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The IMF’s January 2014 World Economic Outlook Update has three main messages:

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: recovery, world economy

From recession to normalcy: Recoveries as a third phase of the business cycle

Antonio Fatás, Ilian Mihov, 14 August 2013

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According to the NBER business cycle dating committee, the last recession in the US ended in June 2009 (NBER 2013). Three years later US unemployment remains high and most estimates suggest that output remains below potential; a pattern also present in other advanced economies.

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: recession, recovery

A pro-growth economic plan

Richard Wood, 11 May 2013

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There are similarities in the nature of the economic problems facing affected economies around the world:

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: austerity, Eurozone crisis, IMF, recovery

We may have avoided the cliffs, but we still face high mountains

Olivier Blanchard, 13 February 2013

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Optimism is in the air, particularly in financial markets. And some cautious optimism may indeed be justified.
Compared to where we were at the same time last year, acute risks have decreased. The US has avoided the fiscal cliff, and the euro explosion in Europe did not occur. And uncertainty is lower.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: Eurozone crisis, fiscal cliff, recovery

This time is different, again? The US five years after the onset of subprime

Carmen M Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 22 October 2012

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Five years after the onset of the 2007 subprime financial crisis:

  • GDP per capita in the US remains below its initial level;
  • Unemployment, although down from its peak, is still hovering near 8%.

Rather than the V-shaped recovery that is typical of most postwar recessions, growth has been slow and halting.

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: global crisis, is the US different, recovery

Have the US and European economies parted company? The signals are increasingly clear

Lucrezia Reichlin, Domenico Giannone, Jasper McMahon, Saverio Simonelli, 2 May 2012

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According to the NBER (2012), the last recession ended in June of 2009. CEPR (2012) dates the end of the recession in the Eurozone in the same quarter. For the UK, there is no established chronology but a visual inspection of Figure 1 shows that the recession and the subsequent recovery in the three economies have been highly synchronised.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: business cycle, Europe, recession, recovery, UK, US

Divergence of fortunes in recoveries

Prakash Loungani, M Ayhan Kose, Marco E Terrones, 24 April 2012

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The last global recession was the deepest of the four recessions the world has experienced since World War II. Each recession led to fears of economic apocalypse but the global economy recovered in a year or two. Because of the depth of the last recession, some analysts worried that the world would relive the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: emerging markets, eurozone, recovery

A fragile and fickle recovery

Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda, 23 April 2012

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The world economy remains on life support, largely provided by accommodative central banks.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: forecast, recovery, TIGER

Inclusive crises and exclusive recoveries?

Ronald U Mendoza , 9 June 2010

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It has now been about two years since the first international food price shocks erupted in 2008. Even as recent news reports have begun to celebrate the first tentative signs of global economic recovery, a growing number of analysts have begun to warn of its fragility.

Topics: Poverty and income inequality
Tags: economic aftershock, fiscal stimulus, recovery

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