The IMF’s January 2014 World Economic Outlook Update has three main messages:
Is the world recovery really strengthening?
Olivier Blanchard, 27 January 2014
From recession to normalcy: Recoveries as a third phase of the business cycle
Antonio Fatás, Ilian Mihov, 14 August 2013
According to the NBER business cycle dating committee, the last recession in the US ended in June 2009 (NBER 2013). Three years later US unemployment remains high and most estimates suggest that output remains below potential; a pattern also present in other advanced economies.
A pro-growth economic plan
Richard Wood, 11 May 2013
There are similarities in the nature of the economic problems facing affected economies around the world:
We may have avoided the cliffs, but we still face high mountains
Olivier Blanchard, 13 February 2013
Optimism is in the air, particularly in financial markets. And some cautious optimism may indeed be justified.
Compared to where we were at the same time last year, acute risks have decreased. The US has avoided the fiscal cliff, and the euro explosion in Europe did not occur. And uncertainty is lower.
This time is different, again? The US five years after the onset of subprime
Carmen M Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 22 October 2012
Five years after the onset of the 2007 subprime financial crisis:
- GDP per capita in the US remains below its initial level;
- Unemployment, although down from its peak, is still hovering near 8%.
Rather than the V-shaped recovery that is typical of most postwar recessions, growth has been slow and halting.
Have the US and European economies parted company? The signals are increasingly clear
Lucrezia Reichlin, Domenico Giannone, Jasper McMahon, Saverio Simonelli, 2 May 2012
According to the NBER (2012), the last recession ended in June of 2009. CEPR (2012) dates the end of the recession in the Eurozone in the same quarter. For the UK, there is no established chronology but a visual inspection of Figure 1 shows that the recession and the subsequent recovery in the three economies have been highly synchronised.
Divergence of fortunes in recoveries
Prakash Loungani, M Ayhan Kose, Marco E Terrones, 24 April 2012
The last global recession was the deepest of the four recessions the world has experienced since World War II. Each recession led to fears of economic apocalypse but the global economy recovered in a year or two. Because of the depth of the last recession, some analysts worried that the world would relive the Great Depression of the 1930s.
A fragile and fickle recovery
Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda, 23 April 2012
The world economy remains on life support, largely provided by accommodative central banks.
Inclusive crises and exclusive recoveries?
Ronald U Mendoza , 9 June 2010
It has now been about two years since the first international food price shocks erupted in 2008. Even as recent news reports have begun to celebrate the first tentative signs of global economic recovery, a growing number of analysts have begun to warn of its fragility.
The lingering effects of financial crises
Prakash Kannan, 19 November 2009
The prospects for recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis appear to be on the horizon.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
DellaVigna, Durante, Knight, La Ferrara
Ostry, Berg, Tsangarides
Allen, Eichengreen, Evans
Greenwood, Guner, Kocharakov, Santos
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche