Low for how long? Estimating the ECB’s “Extended Period of Time”

Tilman Bletzinger, Volker Wieland 05 September 2013

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The ECB Governing Council has given hints that it will keep rates low for long (see its May and June statements). On 4 July 2013, the Council went further embracing ‘forward guidance’ (Praet 2013, Woodford 2013).1

“The Governing Council expects the ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.”

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Topics:  Monetary policy

Tags:  ECB, forecast, monetary rule

A fragile and fickle recovery

Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda 23 April 2012

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The world economy remains on life support, largely provided by accommodative central banks.

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Topics:  Global economy

Tags:  recovery, forecast, TIGER

A century of inflation forecast

Antonello D’Agostino, Paolo Surico 18 April 2011

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Monetary authorities across the world have always devoted substantial resources to forecasting inflation. The history of monetary policy, however, suggests that the enterprise of predicting changes in the price level has had mixed success over time.

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Topics:  Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy

Tags:  US, inflation, monetary policy, forecast

Bad forecasters can be good policymakers

Thomas J. Sargent, Martin Ellison 24 November 2009

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The value of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC)1 has recently been questioned in a highly provocative paper by two professors at the University of California, Berkeley. The two professors are husband-and-wife team Christina and David Romer, who are amongst the most influential economists in the world today. Christina Romer is Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama administration and a co-author of Obama’s plan for recovery, and David Romer is the author of a very popular macroeconomic graduate textbook.

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Topics:  Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  monetary policy, Fed, forecast

Is the UK still in recession? We don’t think so

Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, Saverio Simonelli 23 November 2009

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Over the last ten days, statistical institutes have published their early estimates of GDP growth for the third quarter of 2009. Both the US and the Eurozone have surprised the market with very positive readings of 0.9% and 0.4% growth, respectively. The UK, on the other hand, still shows negative growth with a reading of -0.4%.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions

Tags:  UK, GDP growth, forecast

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