The ECB Governing Council has given hints that it will keep rates low for long (see its May and June statements). On 4 July 2013, the Council went further embracing ‘forward guidance’ (Praet 2013, Woodford 2013).1
Low for how long? Estimating the ECB’s “Extended Period of Time”
Tilman Bletzinger, Volker Wieland, 5 September 2013
A fragile and fickle recovery
Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda, 23 April 2012
The world economy remains on life support, largely provided by accommodative central banks.
A century of inflation forecast
Antonello D’Agostino, Paolo Surico, 18 April 2011
Monetary authorities across the world have always devoted substantial resources to forecasting inflation. The history of monetary policy, however, suggests that the enterprise of predicting changes in the price level has had mixed success over time.
Bad forecasters can be good policymakers
Thomas J. Sargent, Martin Ellison, 24 November 2009
The value of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC)1 has recently been questioned in a highly provocative paper by two professors at the University of California, Berkeley. The two professors are husband-and-wife team Christina and David Romer, who are amongst the most influential economists in the world today.
Is the UK still in recession? We don’t think so
Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, Saverio Simonelli, 23 November 2009
Over the last ten days, statistical institutes have published their early estimates of GDP growth for the third quarter of 2009. Both the US and the Eurozone have surprised the market with very positive readings of 0.9% and 0.4% growth, respectively. The UK, on the other hand, still shows negative growth with a reading of -0.4%.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
DellaVigna, Durante, Knight, La Ferrara
Ostry, Berg, Tsangarides
Allen, Eichengreen, Evans
Greenwood, Guner, Kocharakov, Santos