To exit the Great Recession, central banks must adapt their policies and models

Marcus Miller, Lei Zhang 10 September 2014

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“Practical men…are usually the slaves…[of] some academic scribbler of a few years back” – John Maynard Keynes.

For monetary policy to be most effective, Michael Woodford emphasised the crucial importance of managing expectations. For this purpose, he advocated that central banks adopt explicit rules for setting interest rates to check inflation and recession, and went on to note that:

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Topics:  Global crisis Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy

Tags:  Taylor rule, forward guidance, great moderation, global crisis, Great Recession, quantitative easing, DSGE models, expectations, tapering, US, UK, Europe, eurozone, ECB, Bank of England, central banking, IMF, unconventional monetary policy

Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBook

Coen Teulings, Richard Baldwin 10 September 2014

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Teaser from original column posted on 15 August 2014

Six years after the Crisis and the recovery is still anaemic despite years of zero interest rates. Is ‘secular stagnation’ to blame? This column introduces an eBook that gathers the views of leading economists including Summers, Krugman, Gordon, Blanchard, Koo, Eichengreen, Caballero, Glaeser, and a dozen others. It is too early to tell whether secular stagnation is really secular, but if it is, current policy tools will be obsolete. Policymakers should start thinking about potential solutions.

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Topics:  Global crisis Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy

Tags:  interest rates, US, Europe, Japan, investment, macroeconomics, Great Recession, zero lower bound, savings, secular stagnation, SecStag debate

The Great Recession’s long-term damage

Laurence Ball 01 July 2014

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According to macroeconomics textbooks, a fall in aggregate demand causes a recession in which output drops below potential output – the normal level of production given the economy’s resources and technology. This effect is temporary, however. A recession is followed by a recovery period in which output returns to potential, and potential itself is not affected significantly by the recession.

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Topics:  Global crisis

Tags:  growth, unemployment, OECD, potential output, Great Recession, hysteresis

The great British jobs and productivity mystery

João Paulo Pessoa, John Van Reenen 28 June 2014

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With some economic recovery having finally got underway, the UK is still feeling the repercussions of the so-called ‘Great Recession’. National output, as measured by GDP, fell by over 7% from its peak in January 2008 – the biggest fall since the inter-war years – and only returned to its pre-crisis level in April 2014 (NIESR 2014). This has been the slowest recovery in this century (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. The profile of recession and recovery

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions

Tags:  unemployment, productivity growth, UK, Great Recession

Trade policy through 2013: Signs of improvement but new policy concerns

Chad P Bown 27 June 2014

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How countries apply their trade policies has been of heightened interest since the early days of the Great Recession (Baldwin and Evenett 2009). While applied import tariffs have proven resilient to change, the temporary trade barriers of antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties have become important to understanding the year-to-year churning that arises under modern commercial policy. Here we summarise evidence from the World Bank’s Temporary Trade Barriers Database – that has been newly updated with data through 2013 – for more than 25 major economies.

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Topics:  International trade

Tags:  G20, protectionism, Trade barriers, Great Recession, TTBs

Falling real wages in the UK

David Blanchflower, Stephen Machin 12 May 2014

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There have been unprecedented falls in real wages in the UK since the start of the recession triggered by the financial crisis of 2008. This did not happen in previous economic downturns – median real wage growth slowed down or stalled, but it did not fall. Indeed, in past recessions, almost all workers in both the lowest and highest deciles of the wage distribution experienced growing real wages. It was the unemployed who experienced almost all the pain – they lost their jobs and much of their incomes, and many were unemployed for a long time.

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Topics:  Labour markets Poverty and income inequality

Tags:  US, unemployment, wages, Inequality, UK, Great Recession, real wages

Has US household deleveraging ended? A model-based estimate of equilibrium debt

Bruno Albuquerque, Ursel Baumann, Georgi Krustev 18 April 2014

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The balance sheet adjustment in the household sector has been a prominent feature of the last US recession and subsequent recovery. The beginning of the economic downturn in late 2007 broadly coincided with a sustained reduction in household liabilities relative to income – that is, household deleveraging – which contrasted with the strong build-up of debt before the crisis. From a peak of around 129% in the fourth quarter of 2007, the household debt-to-income ratio fell by 26 percentage points to around 104% in the fourth quarter of 2013, led by sustained declines in mortgage debt.

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Topics:  Global crisis

Tags:  Great Recession, household debt, household deleveraging

The US manufacturing recovery: Uptick or renaissance?

Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, Chris Papageorgiou 24 February 2014

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Amid increasing anecdotes of a ‘renaissance’ in US manufacturing, many commentators have argued that the sector may contribute more significantly to domestic GDP and global industrial output in future (e.g. Financial Times 2012, New York Times 2012, McKinsey Global Institute 2012, Citi Research 2013).

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Topics:  Global economy

Tags:  US, growth, manufacturing, Great Recession

How did household balance sheets affect consumption during the Great Recession?

Scott Ross Baker 19 January 2014

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The presence of substantial amounts of household debt in 2007 has prompted many economists and policymakers to link debt to the depth of the recession in the following years. The possibility that higher levels of household debt induce deeper or longer recessions has important implications for both financial regulation and the size of the social safety net. More broadly, a better understanding of the dynamic relationship between a household's spending decisions, income process, and balance sheet is imperative to accurately describe microeconomic drivers of business cycles.

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Topics:  Global crisis

Tags:  consumption, Great Recession, household debt

Job losses from the credit crunch during the Great Recession

Samuel Bentolila, Marcel Jansen 01 February 2014

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Policymakers in both Europe and the US are concerned about the economic implications of the current shortage of credit. As the International Monetary Fund put it recently, “policymakers want to support markets because the decline in lending is seen to be a primary factor in the slow recovery” (IMF 2013).

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Topics:  Global crisis

Tags:  Spain, Credit crunch, Great Recession, job losses

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