The US manufacturing recovery: Uptick or renaissance?

Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, Chris Papageorgiou, 24 February 2014

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Amid increasing anecdotes of a ‘renaissance’ in US manufacturing, many commentators have argued that the sector may contribute more significantly to domestic GDP and global industrial output in future (e.g. Financial Times 2012, New York Times 2012, McKinsey Global Institute 2012, Citi Research 2013).

Topics: Global economy
Tags: Great Recession, growth, manufacturing, US

How did household balance sheets affect consumption during the Great Recession?

Scott Ross Baker, 19 January 2014

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The presence of substantial amounts of household debt in 2007 has prompted many economists and policymakers to link debt to the depth of the recession in the following years. The possibility that higher levels of household debt induce deeper or longer recessions has important implications for both financial regulation and the size of the social safety net.

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: consumption, Great Recession, household debt

Job losses from the credit crunch during the Great Recession

Samuel Bentolila, Marcel Jansen, 1 February 2014

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Policymakers in both Europe and the US are concerned about the economic implications of the current shortage of credit. As the International Monetary Fund put it recently, “policymakers want to support markets because the decline in lending is seen to be a primary factor in the slow recovery” (IMF 2013).

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: Credit crunch, Great Recession, job losses, Spain

Crisis-proof services: Why trade in services did not suffer during the 2008-09 collapse

Andrea Ariu, 24 December 2013

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Following the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, international trade in goods collapsed by 30%. This dramatic collapse was highly synchronised across countries and mostly concentrated in the category of durable goods (Baldwin 2009). Surprisingly, international trade in services barely reacted to the crisis.

Topics: International trade
Tags: Great Recession, trade in services

Does policy uncertainty reduce economic activity? Insights and evidence from large trade reforms

Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão, 23 November 2013

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The impact of policy uncertainty on economic activity is an issue traditionally associated with developing countries. Since 2008, however, the spotlight has shifted. Governments’ responses to the Great Recession and the Eurozone crisis have raised considerable uncertainty about the future policies of advanced economies.

Topics: International trade
Tags: China, Eurozone crisis, Great Recession, trade, uncertainty, US, WTO

Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 15 November 2013

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“Prior to the recent deep worldwide recession, macroeconomists of all schools took a negative relation between slack and declining inflation as an axiom. Few seem to have awakened to the recent experience as a contradiction to the axiom.” (Bob Hall, 2013.)

Topics: Global crisis, Monetary policy
Tags: disinflation, expectations, global crisis, Great Recession, inflation, oil, Phillips curve

Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy

Knut Are Aastveit, Gisle James Natvik, Sergio Sola, 19 October 2013

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Since the onset of the “Great recession”, economists have struggled to explain why the recovery has been so slow, despite the many policy measures that have been passed to re-invigorate economic activity. One candidate explanation that several have pointed to, for instance Baker, Bloom, Davis and Van Reenen (2012), is economic uncertainty.

Topics: Monetary policy
Tags: Great Recession, monetary policy, uncertainty

How to make Europe's incipient recovery durable – A rejoinder

Marco Buti, Pier Carlo Padoan, 8 October 2013

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Our recent Vox column triggered an interesting and lively debate (see for instance Krugman, 2013; Fatas, 2013; Watt, 2013).

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: austerity, EZ recovery, Great Recession

How the great recession affected unemployment of non-Western Immigrants in the Netherlands

Jan van Ours, 6 October 2013

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The labour-market position of immigrants in many European countries is weak – unemployment rates among immigrants are high, and employment rates are low (OECD 2011). There are various explanations for this. Immigrants often have lower educational attainment than natives, and fewer language skills. Furthermore, ethnic identity may be important.

Topics: Labour markets, Migration
Tags: Great Recession, migration, Netherlands, unemployment

Why is this global recovery different?

M Ayhan Kose, Prakash Loungani, Marco E Terrones, 18 April 2013

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There is an intensive discussion about the weak and protracted nature of the ongoing recovery.

Topics: Global crisis, Monetary policy
Tags: Great Recession

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