According to macroeconomics textbooks, a fall in aggregate demand causes a recession in which output drops below potential output – the normal level of production given the economy’s resources and technology. This effect is temporary, however.
The Great Recession’s long-term damage
Laurence Ball, 1 July 2014
The great British jobs and productivity mystery
João Paulo Pessoa, John Van Reenen, 28 June 2014
With some economic recovery having finally got underway, the UK is still feeling the repercussions of the so-called ‘Great Recession’. National output, as measured by GDP, fell by over 7% from its peak in January 2008 – the biggest fall since the inter-war years – and only returned to its pre-crisis level in April 2014 (NIESR 2014).
Trade policy through 2013: Signs of improvement but new policy concerns
Chad P Bown, 27 June 2014
How countries apply their trade policies has been of heightened interest since the early days of the Great Recession (Baldwin and Evenett 2009).
Falling real wages in the UK
David Blanchflower, Stephen Machin, 12 May 2014
There have been unprecedented falls in real wages in the UK since the start of the recession triggered by the financial crisis of 2008. This did not happen in previous economic downturns – median real wage growth slowed down or stalled, but it did not fall.
Has US household deleveraging ended? A model-based estimate of equilibrium debt
Bruno Albuquerque, Ursel Baumann, Georgi Krustev, 18 April 2014
The balance sheet adjustment in the household sector has been a prominent feature of the last US recession and subsequent recovery. The beginning of the economic downturn in late 2007 broadly coincided with a sustained reduction in household liabilities relative to income – that is, household deleveraging – which contrasted with the strong build-up of debt before the crisis.
The US manufacturing recovery: Uptick or renaissance?
Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, Chris Papageorgiou, 24 February 2014
Amid increasing anecdotes of a ‘renaissance’ in US manufacturing, many commentators have argued that the sector may contribute more significantly to domestic GDP and global industrial output in future (e.g. Financial Times 2012, New York Times 2012, McKinsey Global Institute 2012, Citi Research 2013).
How did household balance sheets affect consumption during the Great Recession?
Scott Ross Baker, 19 January 2014
The presence of substantial amounts of household debt in 2007 has prompted many economists and policymakers to link debt to the depth of the recession in the following years. The possibility that higher levels of household debt induce deeper or longer recessions has important implications for both financial regulation and the size of the social safety net.
Job losses from the credit crunch during the Great Recession
Samuel Bentolila, Marcel Jansen, 1 February 2014
Policymakers in both Europe and the US are concerned about the economic implications of the current shortage of credit. As the International Monetary Fund put it recently, “policymakers want to support markets because the decline in lending is seen to be a primary factor in the slow recovery” (IMF 2013).
Crisis-proof services: Why trade in services did not suffer during the 2008-09 collapse
Andrea Ariu, 24 December 2013
Following the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, international trade in goods collapsed by 30%. This dramatic collapse was highly synchronised across countries and mostly concentrated in the category of durable goods (Baldwin 2009). Surprisingly, international trade in services barely reacted to the crisis.
Does policy uncertainty reduce economic activity? Insights and evidence from large trade reforms
Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão, 23 November 2013
The impact of policy uncertainty on economic activity is an issue traditionally associated with developing countries. Since 2008, however, the spotlight has shifted. Governments’ responses to the Great Recession and the Eurozone crisis have raised considerable uncertainty about the future policies of advanced economies.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
- Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A new modelKrugman
Cadot, de Melo, 16 June 2014
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche
- The economics of Scottish independence in an interdependent worldHughes Hallett
- Making city lights shine brighterYusuf, Leipziger
- The euro in the 'currency war'Bénassy-Quéré, Martin
- The roots of shadow bankingPerotti
- What’s wrong with Europe?Baldini, Manasse
- Corporate Finance Theory Symposium19 - 20 September 2014 / Cambridge / Judge Business School, Cambridge University
- International Trade, Finance, and Macroeconomics: Research Frontiers and Challenges for Policy18 - 19 December 2014 / The Bank of England, London / The Bank of England, Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR