In 2009-2010, the UK's budget deficit was about 11% of GDP (see here); there was no dispute among economists that a credible plan for fiscal consolidation was required.
The impact of alternative paths of fiscal consolidation on output and employment in the UK
Nitika Bagaria, Dawn Holland, Jonathan Portes, John Van Reenen, 14 August 2012
How Euro economies are being choked by an accounting identity
Florence Pisani, Anton Brender, Emile Gagna, 21 June 2012
By mid-2012 it is clear that the global recovery is at risk. By increasing uncertainty, while depressing demand in an important part of the world economy, the Eurozone crisis is dangerously slowing growth in the US and emerging economies. This is particularly worrying since the US economy could easily be pushed close to the recession zone.
The Eurozone crisis: Fiscal fragility, external imbalances, or both?
Pietro Alessandrini, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Andrea F Presbitero, Michele Fratianni, 16 May 2012
The speculative attack against Eurozone sovereign debt, reflected in the extraordinary rise in the yields of government bonds for Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (known affectionately as the GIIPS) since the start of 2010, has sparked a heated policy debate on how best to stabilise the Eurozone (see the Vox debate moderated by
US debt issuance since 1951 and the fallacy of issuing floating rate notes
Peter Stella, Manmohan Singh, 14 May 2012
Most of today’s debate turns on the amount of US debt issuance, but the nature of the debt is also under discussion. In the current environment of macroeconomic uncertainty, the demand for safe assets has bloomed and the definition of “safe” is evolving. Part of this is the debate on whether floating rate notes should be issued by the US Treasury.
Direct democracy as a safeguard to limit public spending
Patricia Funk, Christina Gathmann, 10 February 2012
The current debt crisis in Europe and North America raises the question of how to impose spending discipline on governments and politicians. A country with historically low government spending is Switzerland, which many argue is related to the high use of direct democracy.
Mispricing of sovereign risk and multiple equilibria in the Eurozone
Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji, 23 January 2012
It is widely acknowledged that Eurozone financial markets were systematically wrong from 2001 to 2008 when they charged the same risk premium on Greek and German government bonds despite huge differences in their debt-to-GDP ratios.
Lessons from a century of large public debt reductions and build-ups
S. M. Ali Abbas, Nazim Belhocine, Asmaa El-Ganainy, Mark Horton, 18 December 2011
Empirical work on debt cycles and debt sustainability has been constrained by lack of public debt data on a large number of countries over a long time period. Existing studies are based on datasets that either cover short time periods (such as Jaimovich and Panizza 2010) or omit a large number of countries (such as Reinhart and Rogoff 2010).
Can austerity be self-defeating?
Daniel Gros, 29 November 2011
Could ‘austerity’ be self-defeating? Could a reduction in government expenditure lead to such a strong fall in activity that fiscal performance indicators actually get worse?
Chipping away at public debt – Sources of failure and keys to success in fiscal adjustment
Anna Ivanova, Paolo Mauro, Edouard Martin, 9 November 2011
The global financial crisis has caused government debt to soar in the advanced economies. Public concern is rising and debates rage on how to fix the problem.
Public debt in the Eurozone, Japan, and the US
Charles Wyplosz, 16 September 2011
There is little doubt that public debts have become outsized in many developed countries. Worse, they are expected to keep growing over the next decades as populations age. The financial markets have now set their eyes on this situation, making it difficult or expensive to borrow for a number of Eurozone countries, and the list could grow and expand beyond the Eurozone.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
DellaVigna, Durante, Knight, La Ferrara
Ostry, Berg, Tsangarides
Allen, Eichengreen, Evans
Greenwood, Guner, Kocharakov, Santos