Banking crises and political survival over the long run – why Great Expectations matter

Jeffrey Chwieroth, Andrew Walter, 10 May 2013

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The wave of banking and sovereign-debt crises that began in 2007 has had powerful and continuing economic consequences (IMF 2013a; 2013b). Economists have used long run historical data to investigate the economic aftermaths of financial crises, but we lack any equivalent panoramic analysis of the impact of crises on politics.

Topics: Global crisis, Politics and economics
Tags: business cycle, elections, Eurozone crisis, Finance

Self-defeating austerity shocks

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, 3 May 2013

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In many advanced countries, in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, deficits skyrocketed and public debt ballooned (see Figure 1). In fact, fiscal stimulus accounted for only a small fraction of the increase in debt, whereas collapsing revenues and higher unemployment and social benefits contributed the largest share (IMF 2011).

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: austerity, Eurozone crisis, fiscal policy

Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Luis Garicano, Tano Santos, 24 March 2013

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URL: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP9404.asp.asp
Topics: Macroeconomic policy, Politics and economics
Tags: bubbles, Eurozone crisis, financial crisis, Political Economy

Should the role of preparing budgetary projections be delegated to an independent agency?

Rossana Merola, Javier J. Pérez, 1 May 2013

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The debate about fiscal forecasts has recently been growing more intense in Europe. At its root, there is the evidence of planned government deficits significantly exceeding recurrent budgetary plans in recent years. This comes at a time of high public deficit and debt levels for EU member states.

Topics: Global crisis, Monetary policy
Tags: Eurozone crisis, fiscal policy, forecasting

Current-account surpluses in the Eurozone: Should they be reduced?

Alexandr Hobza, Stefan Zeugner, 26 April 2013

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Current-account deficits are widely acknowledged to have posed significant policy problems in several Eurozone countries.1  Since the onset of the crisis, their adjustment has been associated with sharp contractions in consumption and investment, entailing high economic and social costs. But a deficit in any country requires a surplus in another to finance it.

Topics: Europe's nations and regions
Tags: Eurozone crisis, imbalances

Job placement and displacement: Evidence from a randomised experiment

Bruno Crépon, Esther Duflo, Marc Gurgand, Roland Rathelot, Philippe Zamora, 24 April 2013

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Youth unemployment is a growing concern in many countries, including France where more than a quarter of recent graduates cannot find stable work. Some of these young graduates do not benefit from resources like unemployment benefits because they lack a sufficient employment history.

Topics: Labour markets
Tags: Eurozone crisis, graduates, unemployment, youth unemployment

Fighting financial protectionism

Dirk Schoenmaker, 18 April 2013

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 International cooperation between national supervisors broke down during the Global Financial Crisis. The collapse of Lehman and Fortis provide vivid illustrations that national supervisors ultimately choose for their national interest in crisis management.

Topics: Global crisis, International finance
Tags: Eurozone crisis, protectionism

Augmented inflation targeting: Le roi est mort, vive le roi

Richard Baldwin, Daniel Gros, 17 April 2013

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The Bank of Japan recently embraced inflation targeting – a decade and a half after academics recommended it (Krugman 2013). But this is not inflation targeting as conceived before the Global Crisis.

Topics: Global crisis, Monetary policy
Tags: augmented inflation targeting, Eurozone crisis, Japan

The much-needed EU pivot to east Asia

Patrick A Messerlin, 16 April 2013

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The EU is facing formidable challenges. The economic crisis is far from over in many Eurozone and non-Eurozone member states. The EU’s current macroeconomic and budgetary policies are not politically sustainable at the EU’s current anaemic growth rate.

Topics: International trade
Tags: EU, Eurozone crisis, Japan, Taiwan

Are Germans really poorer than Spaniards, Italians and Greeks?

Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji, 16 April 2013

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Rarely have statistics been misused so much for political purposes as when recently the ECB published the results of a survey of household wealth in the Eurozone countries (2013a).1  From this survey it appeared that the median German household had the lowest wealth of all Eurozone countries.

Topics: Europe's nations and regions
Tags: Eurozone crisis, Germany

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