Can we avoid delayed sovereign defaults? This column sketches out a flexible mechanism focused on the international lender, and competition between lenders, of last resort to ensure timeliness, transparency and larger sums than are currently available. The threat of competition should provide strong incentives for addressing imbalances in the governance of the main multilateral financial institutions
Ugo Panizza, Sunday, March 3, 2013 - 00:00
Alfonso Arpaia, Alessandro Turrini, Saturday, March 2, 2013 - 00:00
Is policy-related uncertainty at the root of lacklustre Eurozone job creation? This column presents evidence that is consistent with this idea. The main implications for policy are straightforward: credible solutions to the Eurozone debt crisis will alleviate the critical unemployment situation of a number of Eurozone countries. How? Not only by helping to kick start investment and production, but also by an additional, direct boost to job creation that is linked to confidence.
Thomas Grennes, Andris Strazds, Thursday, February 28, 2013 - 00:00
Can European countries share their debts? This column argues that higher government indebtedness means larger household net financial assets. Thus, any pooling of European legacy debt would be considered unacceptable by countries with less government debt unless it also involved the pooling of households’ financial assets. Yet, this would be legally and technically insurmountable. The EU must face forced Ricardian equivalence: the countries with the largest legacy-debt burdens must reduce them by increasing the tax burden or, alternatively, reduce their budget expenditure.
Dirk Schoenmaker, Arjen Siegmann, Wednesday, February 27, 2013 - 00:00
So far, discussions around Europe’s prospective banking union have focused only on the supervision of banks. This column argues that policymakers must also think about the resolution of banks in distress. While national governments confine themselves to the domestic effects of a banking failure, a European Resolution Authority could incorporate domestic and cross-border effects. A cost-benefit analysis of a hypothetical resolution of the top 25 European banks shows that the UK, Spain, Sweden, and the Netherlands would be the main winners.
Willem Thorbecke, Tuesday, February 26, 2013 - 00:00
Policymakers everywhere are concerned about currency wars. Are quantitative easing and managed exchange rates bad for the global economy? This column looks at the hard empirical evidence, arguing that, in fact, Japan is behaving rather responsibly and that other strong economies have themselves benefited from undervalued currencies. That said, it is true that politicians’ short time horizons often lead to stealthy policy and large swings in exchange rates. Economists should therefore aim to promote longer-run cosmopolitan interests rather than shorter-run nationalistic agendas where possible.
Luca Papi, Andrea F Presbitero, Alberto Zazzaro, Monday, February 25, 2013 - 00:00
The IMF’s role in past systemic banking crises has been hotly debated. Indeed, prominent intellectuals have criticised the Fund for creating or exacerbating crises. This column discusses new evidence showing that IMF lending programmes are in fact associated with a lower probability of banking crises occurring in future.
Harold James, Hans-Werner Sinn, Tuesday, February 26, 2013 - 00:00
Can the euro exist without fiscal or political union? This column draws on the history of the US – especially its assumption of states’ debt after the War of Independence – to investigate which path might best serve the Eurozone. History tells us that unions require a well-constitutionalised system of restraint on fiscal behaviour, both at the federal level and at that of individual states.
Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki, Jozef Konings, Tuesday, February 19, 2013 - 00:00
Why is it that large movements in exchange rates have small effects on international prices? What does this mean for a crisis-stricken Eurozone? Using firm-level data, this column presents new research that investigates this exchange rate ‘disconnect’. Evidence suggests that the prices of the largest firms – with their disproportionately large share of trade – are insulated from exchange rate movements. The international competitiveness effects of a euro devaluation are therefore likely to be modest, given major exporters’ reliance on global supply chains.
Harold James, Monday, February 18, 2013 - 00:00
Do economists and policymakers know how to design a federal bank for Europe? Is there a template? This column explores the history of the US Federal Reserve, gleaning lessons for the future of the European banking system. Getting to grips with the historical and empirical details shows how different the two really are. Overall, evidence suggests that the mechanism of the TARGET system might well create demand for Europe to move further towards fiscal federalism.
Harold James, Sunday, February 17, 2013 - 00:00
Recent policy and academic debates have begun to influence Eurozone reform. But how sound is the advice we give out? This column argues that calls for a Eurozone or full-fledged EU superstate are overstated. Yes, developing an adequate system of European banking supervision is a matter of urgency if we hope to tackle the threat posed by an overdeveloped and opaque financial system. But calling for a superstate misunderstands the reasons politicians introduced the euro in the first place.
Olivier Blanchard, Wednesday, February 13, 2013 - 00:00
The new year has provided cheer for macroeconomic optimists. This column by Olivier Blanchard, one of the world’s leading economists, argues that important progress has been made in putting the crisis behind us, but that recovery continues to be hampered by the need for fiscal consolidation and a weak financial system.
Ester Faia, Wolfgang Lechthaler, Christian Merkl, Saturday, February 9, 2013 - 00:00
Eurozone labour markets are under stress. This column explores the connections between labour-market reform and macroeconomic policy, arguing that with its large differences in firing costs, normal Eurozone monetary policy is inappropriate for several Eurozone countries. If the efficacy of the ECB’s policy is impaired because there is no harmonisation of firing costs, tensions will continue to rise within the Eurozone.
Giancarlo Corsetti, Philippe Martin, Paolo Pesenti, Thursday, January 31, 2013 - 00:00
Current-account imbalances in Europe are at the heart of the crisis .This column argues that relative price adjustment need not be as dramatic as some observers claim. In order to foster rebalancing, policy should target obstacles to firms' entry, startup costs, and the incentives for product differentiation, letting relative prices and wages adjust in equilibrium. Setting up firms and new production lines is costly and in the current circumstances, policy should also address tight credit constraints on investment and firms’ activity.
Giorgio Basevi, Wednesday, January 23, 2013 - 00:00
Is European economic recovery being delayed by political procrastination? Are electoral cycles hindering a return to growth? This column argues that by synchronising European nations’ electoral cycles (along with those of the European Parliament), Europe can avoid its current slow and jittery approach. Creating a synchronised Europe-wide voting period would do away with overlapping national electoral cycles. A common national and European voting period would reduce political uncertainty, ensuring quicker policymaking response times for a smoother, quicker route to recovery.
Paolo Manasse, Thursday, January 17, 2013 - 00:00
All G7 economies are struggling in the post-crisis climate, but US GDP has recovered to pre-crisis levels, while the Eurozone simply hasn’t. This column portrays the global crisis as a transitory shock for the US, but as a quasi-permanent shock for Europe. The policies that are needed get the Eurozone back on track do not seem to be politically feasible. As tension rises with every quarter of stagnation, prospects for the survival of the euro are not only not improving, they are actually getting worse.
Charles Wyplosz, Friday, January 4, 2013 - 00:00
Financial market quiescence has removed pressure for immediate policy action on the Eurozone crisis. This column argues that while important repairs were made in 2012, the most difficult ones still lie ahead. Much remains to be done by unwilling politicians. Things will have to get worse before they get better. The best hope is that this happens in 2013 rather than in 2014.
Roel Beetsma, Konstantinos Mavromatis, Friday, December 21, 2012 - 00:00
Are Eurobonds a desirable solution to Eurozone members’ debt crises? Unhappily, it’s difficult to say. This column argues it very much depends on how the system is designed. However, looking at the most prominent proposals, it seems a cleverly designed Eurobonds system may well provide governments with the right incentives to encourage both issuing less debt and pursuing meaningful structural reform.
Markus K Brunnermeier, Hans Gersbach, Thursday, December 20, 2012 - 00:00
As governments and the EU wring their hands over banking reform, a fragile system remains in place. This column argues that the ECB’s current role undermines its independence. What the Eurozone needs to reduce undue forbearance - while preserving the ECB's independence - is a ‘diarchy’ in which both a newly built Restructuring Authority and the ECB have the power to trigger bank-restructuring.
Jens Nordvig, Monday, December 17, 2012 - 00:00
Fears of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone have subsided, for now. This column attempts to measure the probability of a Greek exit, finding that the changing fortunes of Greek political parties, and the possibility of an early election, mean that the risk of a Greek exit may actually be quite high. It suggests that, despite investors' efforts to measure political risk, a persistent sense of unease about the Eurozone’s future is set to continue into 2013 and that Eurozone financial assets will thus continue to embed significant risk premiums in the coming years.
Vicky Pryce, Friday, December 7, 2012 - 00:00
Vicky Pryce talks to Romesh Vaitilingam about her book, "Greekonomics: The euro crisis and why politicians don’t get it". They discuss the flaws in the original conception of the single currency, Greece’s dire recent economic experiences and how Greek and European policymakers have responded to the crisis. The interview was recorded at the Bristol Festival of Economics in late November 2012.