Cyprus: The next blunder

Charles Wyplosz 18 March 2013

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The decision to tax all Cypriot bank deposits has attracted massive attention (Spiegel 2013) – and rightly so. It is a huge blunder:

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Topics:  EU institutions Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  EU, Eurozone crisis, Cyprus

Avoiding an Italian bailout: Why and how

Francesco Giavazzi 13 August 2012

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Spain has no options, but Italy does.

  • Spain will have to accept EFSF conditionality in order to persuade the ECB to buy its bonds.
  • Italy is different; Italy should not bow to the EFSF and submit itself to its conditionality in order to persuade the ECB to buy its bonds.

Spain may have no other option than to turn to the EFSF and the ECB for assistance: Italy has, and should pursue them. By going to the EFSF together with Spain – as many in the markets are advising – the two countries would be put in the same basket, one in which Italy does not belong.

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Topics:  EU policies

Tags:  Eurozone crisis, EFSF, Italian bailout, Spanish bailout

Smaller is better: Disintegrated nations in an integrated Europe

Edoardo Campanella 12 August 2014

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Throughout the course of history, there are few regions in the world whose map has changed as frequently and abruptly as that of Europe. Nowadays, political forces – less violent and bloody than in the past, but equally destructive – are slowly and imperceptibly eroding the borders of several countries. Tensions within states – not enmities among competing powers – are remodelling the political geography of Europe.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions Global governance Politics and economics

Tags:  EU, regionalism, independence, Eurozone crisis, Catalonia, Scotland, separatism, secessionism, Flanders

Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: A view of the European crisis

Fernando A Broner, Aitor Erce, Alberto Martin, Jaume Ventura 23 July 2014

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Between the start of the financial crisis in 2007 and late 2009, the Eurozone’s periphery countries saw a substantial reduction in economic growth and an increase in deficits. But their economic performance was, if anything, stronger than that in the core countries. The recessions in the periphery were no deeper than in the core, and financial markets absorbed their increasing public debt as they had done in the past, with non-resident creditors absorbing large portions of the increase.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions Global crisis Monetary policy

Tags:  public debt, Eurozone crisis, Eurozone sovereign debt, creditor discrimination

The euro crisis: Muddling through, or on the way to a more perfect euro union?

Joshua Aizenman 03 July 2014

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The short history of the Eurozone has been remarkable and unprecedented – the euro project has moved from the planning board to a vibrant currency within less than ten years. Otmar Issing’s optimistic speech in 2006 reflects well the buoyant assessment of the first decade of the euro – an unprecedented formation of a new currency without a state.1 Observers viewed the rapid acceptance of the euro as a viable currency and the deeper financial integration of the Eurozone and the EU countries as stepping stones toward a stable and prosperous Europe.

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Topics:  Institutions and economics International finance Monetary policy

Tags:  Germany, ECB, eurozone, inflation targeting, euro, institutions, Eurozone crisis, GIIPS

Lacklustre investment in the Eurozone: Is there a puzzle?

Marco Buti, Philipp Mohl 04 June 2014

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On the importance of investment for the Eurozone economy

According to the European Commission’s most recent forecast, real economic activity in the Eurozone is expected to recover at a moderate pace until 2015, and to remain significantly weaker than in the US (European Commission 2014a).

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Topics:  EU policies Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  eurozone, growth, European Commission, investment, uncertainty, structural reforms, Bankruptcy, Eurozone crisis, public investment, banking union, financial fragmentation

The IMF’s preferred creditor status: Questions after the Eurozone crisis

Susan Schadler 28 April 2014

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Throughout the history of IMF lending, the institution has had preferred creditor status – that is, distressed countries borrowing from the IMF are expected to give priority to meeting their obligations to the IMF over those to other creditors. This status is a defining characteristic of the IMF’s role in financial crises – it provides a high degree of confidence that IMF resources are safe when other creditors face substantial uncertainty about full repayment.

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Topics:  Global crisis Global governance International finance

Tags:  IMF, Eurozone crisis, preferred creditor status

Watch the indices! Derivatives and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis

Anne-Laure Delatte, Julien Fouquau, Richard Portes 17 April 2014

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The job of government bond analysts has been tough since the Eurozone crisis started. They’ve had to tell their clients a story behind every single bond spread hike since the fall of 2009. The list includes concerns over peripheral sovereigns’ public finances, deterioration of the fundamentals, financial sector credit risk, and European institutional coordination failures.

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Topics:  Financial markets Global crisis

Tags:  Credit Default Swaps, Eurozone crisis

The increasing competitiveness of the southern Eurozone

Raphael Auer 11 April 2014

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Current-account (CA) rebalancing is a necessary step for the Southern EZ countries to overcome their debt and external balance of payments crises.1 Figure 1 documents the impressive speed and magnitude of the southern EZ’s CA rebalancing.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions International finance

Tags:  eurozone, Eurozone crisis, current account rebalancing

Delivering the Eurozone ‘Consistent Trinity’

Marco Buti, Maria Demertzis, João Nogueira Martins 30 March 2014

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As argued in an earlier commentary, the financial crisis exposed important economic inconsistencies in the way that EMU operated.1 Although progress has been made, the reality is that more needs to be done. A number of countries still need to consolidate their public finances further, and also implement structural reforms to promote growth and sustain satisfactory welfare systems. At the same time, there is a need for vulnerable countries to ensure consistency between regaining competitiveness and the sustainability of private and public debts.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  eurozone, euro, EMU, imbalances, fiscal policy, structural reforms, fiscal consolidation, debt, Eurozone crisis, Stability and Growth Pact, banking union, internal devaluation

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