Financial crises are generally preceded by credit booms and a build-up of external debts. Although it is unclear whether Turkey is experiencing a financial bubble, as of 2013, 58% of the corporate sector’s debt was denominated in foreign currencies. This column argues that this explains the Central Bank of Turkey’s interventions to prop up the value of the Turkish lira. Given the relatively low level of reserves and the unfolding corruption scandal, it is a critical question how long the Bank can continue to do so.
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Tuesday, January 7, 2014
Philipp Böhler, Can Selçuki, Jacques Pelkmans, Sunday, April 1, 2012
Turkey has been a candidate for EU membership for 15 years. Some have argued that its best chance of gaining entry is to join the European Economic Area first. This column argues that such a move would be bad for Turkey and bad for Europe.
Baybars Karacaovali, Sunday, September 4, 2011
Turkey has been one of the more active users of antidumping policies since 1989. This column suggests trade policy commitments with the EU may explain the recent rise in such temporary trade barriers. It adds that China has borne the brunt of Turkey’s protection over the 2000s, being involved in 43% of all antidumping cases and 82% of investigations.
Marga Peeters, Loek Groot, Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Fiscal pressure from demographic changes is mounting across the globe. This column asks whether labour markets will create enough jobs. Cross-country comparisons suggest that, until at least 2050, the countries most under pressure will be Poland, Turkey, and Greece.
Helmut Reisen, Jean-Philippe Stijns, Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Many discussions of official development assistance express concerns about China's growing investment and involvement in Africa economies. This column, summarizing the 2011 African Economic Outlook report, emphasizes the benefits of emerging economies' increasing presence in Africa, including the opening of African policy space due to Western donors' decline in relative influence.
Raphael Auer, Andreas Fischer, Sunday, December 5, 2010
Over the past two decades, Western European trade has become increasingly integrated with emerging economies. This column uses a novel empirical technique to show that import competition from East Asian low-wage countries – in particular China – has dampened inflation in five Western European nations. Increased integration with Turkey and Central and Eastern Europe, meanwhile, has had little effect on inflation.
Thorvaldur Gylfason, Per Magnus Wijkman, Saturday, April 24, 2010
Should Turkey join the EU? This column argues for Turkish membership in order to wed the economic interests of the country with the rest of Europe and reduce the chance of future conflict. To start the process of EU membership, Turkey should be invited to enter the European Economic Area.