The next sudden stop

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan 07 January 2014

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The ominous facts are well known – the strongest predictors of financial crises are domestic credit booms and external debts (Reinhart and Rogoff 2011). In emerging markets, credit booms are generally preceded by large capital inflows (Reinhart and Reinhart 2010). Many high-growth emerging markets have been receiving capital inflows for the last five years as the developed economies have been attending to their wounds from the Global Financial Crisis. Now the tide is reversing. Emerging markets are experiencing slowdowns in growth and widening current-account deficits.

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Topics:  Financial markets International finance

Tags:  capital flows, emerging markets, global financial crisis, sudden stops, Turkey, tapering, liability dollarisation

Whither Turkish pre-accession?

Philipp Böhler, Can Selçuki, Jacques Pelkmans 01 April 2012

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This year marks the 15th year of Turkey’s application for EU membership.

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Topics:  EU policies

Tags:  EU membership, Turkey

Turkey’s resistance to trade liberalisation with the EU through temporary trade barriers

Baybars Karacaovali 04 September 2011

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Turkey, as a major emerging economy, started to use antidumping policies in 1989 and has since been one of its more active users (Bown 2010). Beginning in 2005, Turkey also adopted global safeguard measures, and this policy quickly became a significant temporary trade barrier (TTB) complementary to antidumping. More recently, Turkey has implemented a number of China-specific safeguards and countervailing duties, and its total use of temporary trade barriers increased especially over the second half of the 2000s (Figure 1).

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Topics:  International trade

Tags:  antidumping, Turkey, temporary trade barriers

Demographic pressure versus labour market space: A global view

Marga Peeters, Loek Groot 02 August 2011

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Economists tend to study the problem of ageing in the developed countries in terms of rising old-age dependency ratios, which express the increasing higher number of pensioners for every working-age person. We can also apply the same reasoning to the young, where rising young-age dependency ratios in developing countries by definition implies more youngsters for every person of working age. But this is not the full story.

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Topics:  Labour markets

Tags:  Labour Markets, Poland, Greece, Ageing population, Turkey, Demographic changes

Emerging partners create policy space for Africa

Helmut Reisen, Jean-Philippe Stijns 12 July 2011

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Western politicians have watched the increased presence of emerging countries in Africa with much suspicion. Insinuations run from emerging countries – above all China – bringing down governance standards in Africa to them re-indebting, de-industrialising, and cornering African countries into the production of commodities while only enriching the elites. On a recent Africa tour, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Africa to beware of “new colonialism” as China expands ties there and focus instead on partners able to help build productive capacity on the continent.

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Topics:  Development International trade

Tags:  China, Africa, India, emerging markets, South Korea, Brazil, Turkey

Globalisation’s impact on inflation in the European Union

Raphael Auer, Andreas Fischer 05 December 2010

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It is anyone’s guess where EU inflation is headed once the effects of the financial and sovereign debt crises settle. What is certain, however, is that the inflationary process after the crises will be shaped by the same long-term structural developments that helped create the low-inflation environment in the years leading up to 2007. By far the most salient of these long-term developments is the increasing integration of the world economy, commonly referred to as “globalisation”.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions International trade

Tags:  inflation, China, EU, Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey

Turkey’s road to Europe

Thorvaldur Gylfason, Per Magnus Wijkman 24 April 2010

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“The natural effect of trade is to bring about peace.”
Montesquieu (1758)

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions

Tags:  EU membership, Turkey, Balkans