The presence of a common threshold, or ‘tipping point’ – beyond which the detrimental impact of debt on growth is significant, or significantly increases – is currently taken as given in many policy circles.
Public debt and economic growth: There is no ‘tipping point’
Markus Eberhardt, Andrea F Presbitero, 17 November 2013
Pushing on a string: US monetary policy is less powerful during recessions
Silvana Tenreyro, Gregory Thwaites, 12 November 2013
Most industrialised countries have been trying to cut public borrowing without impeding recovery from the Great Recession. Central banks have attempted to square this circle by loosening monetary policy.
Austerity and stupidity
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, 6 November 2013
The recent Eurozone crisis has shown that austerity measures are self-defeating. They produce severe recessionary consequences which – at least in the short term – tend to increase public debt, as a ratio to GDP.
How to make Europe's incipient recovery durable – A rejoinder
Marco Buti, Pier Carlo Padoan, 8 October 2013
Our recent Vox column triggered an interesting and lively debate (see for instance Krugman, 2013; Fatas, 2013; Watt, 2013).
Carlos A. Vegh , Guillermo Vuletin, 1 October 2013
It is well-established that government spending in developing countries has often been procyclical. In other words, government spending has increased in good times and contracted in bad times, thus exacerbating the underlying business cycle. The inability to save in good times to build a war chest for bad times has often led to wrenching financial and sovereign-debt crises.
When is the time for austerity?
Alan Taylor, 20 July 2013
In 1809, on a battlefield in Portugal, the first recognisable medical trial evaluated bloodletting on a sample of 366 soldiers allocated into treatment and control groups. The cure was shown to be bogus. It was the beginning of the end of pre-modern medicine.
A pro-growth economic plan
Richard Wood, 11 May 2013
There are similarities in the nature of the economic problems facing affected economies around the world:
Fiscal consolidation: At what speed?
Olivier Blanchard, Daniel Leigh, 3 May 2013
In many advanced economies, public debt is very high, and fiscal consolidation must take place. Some factors point to doing more now, others to doing more later. Our purpose in this article is to identify these factors. The right decision, for each country, must depend on a careful weighting of the factors at play.
Self-defeating austerity shocks
Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, 3 May 2013
In many advanced countries, in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, deficits skyrocketed and public debt ballooned (see Figure 1). In fact, fiscal stimulus accounted for only a small fraction of the increase in debt, whereas collapsing revenues and higher unemployment and social benefits contributed the largest share (IMF 2011).
Fiscal policy in Europe: Searching for the right balance
Marco Buti, Nicolas Carnot, 14 March 2013
The debate on the fiscal strategy in Europe seems at times like a war of religions. This is unfortunate because the objective disagreements in substance (e.g. see VoxEU debate: Has austerity gone too far? ) are in our view less pronounced than is sometimes depicted.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
Adelman, 28 October 2013
Reichlin, Giugliano, 7 November 2013
Holmes, McGrattan, Prescott
Beck, De Haas, Ongena
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche
- What’s wrong with Europe?Baldini, Manasse
- How the EZ crisis is permanently changing EU institutionsMicossi
- WTO 2.0: Global governance of supply-chain tradeBaldwin
- Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwindsGordon
- The economic crisis: How to stimulate economies without increasing public debtWood