Higher capital requirements: The jury is in

Stephen Cecchetti 17 December 2014

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During the Basel III debate, a key concern was that higher capital requirements might damage economic growth. By forcing banks to increase their capitalisation, long-run growth would be permanently lower and the adjustment itself would put a drag on the recovery from the Great Recession. Unsurprisingly, the private sector saw catastrophe, while the official sector was more sanguine. The Institute of International Finance (2010) is the most sensationalist example of the former, and the Macroeconomic Assessment Group (2010a and 2010b) one of the most staid cases of the latter.1

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Topics:  Financial markets

Tags:  bank capital, BASEL III, capital requirements, Macroprudential policy, capital buffers, countercyclical capital buffers, bank lending

The jury is in

Stephen Cecchetti,

Date Published

Wed, 12/17/2014

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http://www.cepr.org/sites/default/files/policy_insights/PolicyInsight76.pdf

Vox readers can download CEPR Policy Insight 76 for free here.

Tags
bank capital, BASEL III, capital requirements, Macroprudential policy, capital buffers, countercyclical capital buffers, bank lending

Macroprudentialism – A new Vox eBook

Dirk Schoenmaker 15 December 2014

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Global interest rates have been extraordinarily low since the Global Financial Crisis. This recession-fighting monetary policy, however, may be inflating financial bubbles. Macroprudentialism is the policy that many central banks are using to reduce the chances that today’s low-for-long rates are sowing the seeds of future crises. Macroprudentialism, however, involves a set of relatively untested policies. Things as basic as the precise objective of macroprudential frameworks and their interactions with monetary policy and microprudential supervision are still not clear.

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Topics:  Global crisis Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy

Tags:  Macroprudential policy, macroprudentialism ebook

What caused the great recession in the Eurozone? What could have avoided it?

Philippe Martin, Thomas Philippon 11 November 2014

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There is a wide disagreement about the nature and cause of the Eurozone crisis. Some see it as driven by fiscal indiscipline, some emphasise excessive private leverage, while others focus on external imbalances, sudden stops, or competitiveness divergence due to fixed exchange rates, as these quotes illustrate:

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Topics:  Global crisis Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  EZ crisis, Macroprudential policy, peripheral countries

Monetary policy and long-term trends

Charles A.E. Goodhart, Philipp Erfurth 03 November 2014

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Introduction

There has been a long-term downward trend in the share and strength of labour in national income, which is depressing both demand and inflation. This has prompted ever more expansionary monetary policies. While understandable, indeed appropriate, within a short-term business cycle context, this has exacerbated longer-term trends, increasing inequality and financial distortions. Perhaps the most fundamental problem has been over-reliance on debt finance (leverage).

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Topics:  Financial markets Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy

Tags:  monetary policy, Inequality, debt, leverage, wages, labour share, globalisation, consumption, propensity to consume, fiscal policy, Ageing, interest rates, investment, asset prices, housing, house prices, exchange rates, global crisis, mortgages, sub-prime crisis, Macroprudential policy, structural reforms, balance sheets, deleveraging, equity, shared-equity mortgages, Help to Buy

The great mortgaging

Òscar Jordà, Alan Taylor, Moritz Schularick 12 October 2014

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Understanding the causes and consequences of the rise of finance is a first order concern for macroeconomists and policymakers. The increasing size and leverage of the financial sector has been interpreted as an indicator of excessive risk taking1 and has been linked to the increase in income inequality in advanced economies,2 as well as to the growing political influence of the financial industry (Johnson and Kwak 2010). Yet surprisingly little is known about the driving forces behind these trends.

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Topics:  Economic history Financial markets Global crisis

Tags:  household debt, household leverage ratios, Macroprudential policy

The impact of capital requirements on bank lending

Jonathan Bridges, David Gregory, Mette Nielsen, Silvia Pezzini, Amar Radia, Marco Spaltro 02 September 2014

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The financial crisis has led to widespread support for greater use of time-varying capital requirements on banks as a macroprudential policy tool (see for example Yellen 2010 and Hanson et al. 2011). Policymakers aim to use these tools to enhance the resilience of the financial system, and, potentially, to curb the credit cycle. Under Basel III, national regulatory authorities will be tasked with setting countercyclical capital buffers over the economic cycle.

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Topics:  Financial markets

Tags:  Macroprudential policy, capital requirements, regulation, bank regulation, BASEL III, Bank of England, financial crisis, bank lending, UK

Making macroprudential regulation operational

Anil K Kashyap , Dimitri Tsomocos, Alexandros Vardoulakis 18 July 2014

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The IMF staff (Benes et al. 2014) recently unveiled a new model that “has been developed at the IMF to support macrofinancial and macroprudential policy analysis”. In introducing the model they argue that “such new analytical frameworks require a major revamp of the conventional linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models”. We agree with Benes et al.

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Topics:  Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  banks, Macroprudential policy, savers, model building

It’s time to deploy macroprudential policy: results from the Centre for Macroeconomics July Survey

Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha, Wouter den Haan 08 July 2014

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The Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) – an ESRC-funded research centre including the University of Cambridge, the London School of Economics (LSE), University College London (UCL) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) – is today publishing the results of its fourth monthly survey.1 The surveys are designed to inform the public about the views held by leading UK-based macroeconomists on important questions about macroeconomics and public policy.

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Topics:  Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  UK, housing market, Macroprudential policy

Model risk and the implications for risk management, macroprudential policy, and financial regulations

Jon Danielsson, Kevin James, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer 08 June 2014

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Risk forecasting is central to macroprudential policy, financial regulations, and the operations of financial institutions. Therefore, the accuracy of risk forecast models – model risk analysis – should be a key concern for the users of such models. Surprisingly, this does not appear to be the case. Both industry practice and regulatory guidance currently neglect the risk that the models themselves can pose, even though this problem has long been noted in the literature (see for example Hendricks 1996 and Berkowitz and O’Brien 2002).

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Topics:  Financial markets

Tags:  financial crises, financial regulation, forecasting, risk management, Macroprudential policy

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