The negative effects of recessions are not limited to consumption. Among others, they could also be harmful to preferences and values. This column uses recent evidence from Russia to argue that recessions can result in a sizeable decrease in interpersonal trust. This effect is transient in places where the fall in trust is small. In these regions, trust snaps back to pre-crisis levels as GDP recovers. In the places where fall in trust is large, the effect is persistent. Even after a recovery, trust remains 10 percentage points below the pre-crisis level.
Maxim Ananyev, Sergei Guriev, Sunday, February 8, 2015
Lorenz Kueng, Evgeny Yakovlev, Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Understanding consumer behaviour is crucial for many economic questions. This column looks at the persistence of consumer habits towards alcohol among Russian males. Beer sales expanded rapidly after the collapse of the Soviet Union both in levels and relative to vodka sales, driven mainly by the beer consumption of cohorts born in the 1980s and 1990s. The authors estimate that this trend will reduce the male mortality rate in Russia by one quarter in the next 20 years.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Gérard Roland, Thursday, September 4, 2014
With the crisis in Ukraine escalating further, the question on everyone’s mind is when and how peace can be restored. This column describes three different scenarios where Ukraine continues fighting with or without economic and military help from the West. The authors suggest that though Russia’s chances of winning are small, the policy response of the West could be essential in resolving the conflict quickly.
Aasim M. Husain, Anna Ilyina, Li Zeng, Friday, August 29, 2014
The conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia have already affected the Russian financial markets. This column discusses the repercussions for the rest of Europe of possible disruptions in the trade and financial flows with Russia. Eastern European countries could be seriously affected by a slowdown in the Russian economy due to their close links with Russia. Western countries – despite having looser links with it – could also experience significant effects.
Thorvaldur Gylfason, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, Per Magnus Wijkman, Saturday, June 14, 2014
The Ukraine saw EU soft power met by Russian hard power. This column argues that the EU should counter this hard power using trade policy, among other policies. EU members should agree a common policy and seek support from others to execute this policy. To date, the EU’s response has been too little, too late.
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, Friday, April 25, 2014
In reaction to the Crimean crisis, the EU imposed certain sanctions on Russia. Russia responded by blacklisting EU and US officials. This column discusses the comparative vulnerability of the EU and Russia amid this tit for tat pattern. In purely economic terms, the EU is in a much better position than Russia. However, political regimes also matter. The autocracy score for Russia dampens the impact that the economic sanctions would have politically. The democratic nature of the European governments would translate the sanctions imposed by Russia into great political pressure for the EU. This makes the Russian tit for tat threat realistic.
Alvaro González, Leonardo Iacovone, Hari Subhash, Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Growth in Russia comes from few natural-resource-linked sectors and to a few firms; the economy is currently less diversified than it was during the Soviet times. This column presents evidence that the emergence of new firms is not the binding constraint on diversification: it is the poor survival odds of new firms, created by long, deep Russian economic slumps. More competition would help to drive out less efficient, older firms, and create space for young and efficient ones to survive and thrive.
Thorvaldur Gylfason, Per Magnus Wijkman, Saturday, January 25, 2014
The EU’s Eastern Partnership is currently in turmoil. Armenia and Ukraine – two of the four partner countries (which also include Moldova and Georgia) did not initial association agreements. This column discusses the role of Russia in discouraging such negotiations. The soft power of the EU was apparently no match for the hard power of Russia in the cases of Armenia and Ukraine. A successful partnership would require peaceful international relations between the four partners, and solving their conflicts with Russia.
Anton Cheremukhin, Mikhail Golosov, Sergei Guriev, Aleh Tsyvinski, Thursday, October 10, 2013
Soviet Russia’s industrialisation was a pivotal episode in the 20th century, and economic historians have spent decades debating the role of Stalin’s policies in bringing it about. This column argues that Stalin’s industrialisation was disastrous even in purely economic terms. The brutal policy of collectivisation devastated productivity, both in manufacturing and in agriculture. The massive welfare losses in the years 1928-40 outweighed any hypothetical gains from Stalin’s policies after 1940, and Russia would have been better off under a continuation of the ‘New Economic Policy’.
Anders Åslund, Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Emerging markets are under pressure. This column argues that this is not a mere headwind but that the BRICs’ party is over. Their ability to get going again rests on their ability to carry through reforms in grim times for which they lacked the courage in a boom.
Irena Grosfeld, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, Saturday, March 23, 2013
History influences the politics of every nation. But how exactly can we measure it? This column presents new research that assesses the influence of empires on Poland’s current political makeup. In particular, the centuries-old partition of Poland continues to influence politics through its long-lasting effects on infrastructure and religion.
Simon Commander, Alexander Plekhanov, Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Russia aims to diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on natural resources. Despite laudable aims, this column argues that progress has been sluggish. Longstanding obstacles of corruption, low business-entry rates and weak competition afflict other countries that, like Russia, are in transition. Yet Russia comes pretty much bottom of the class. Crucially, the fact that economic diversification requires improvements to education and skills acquisition has been somewhat overlooked by the state. What attempts the state has made, such as supporting technology innovation, appear to have been ineffectual and, at times, counterproductive. Going forward, Russia would do well to focus on improving incentives for market-relevant research and development, complemented by private sector-led sources of finance for early-stage firms.
Simon J Evenett, Friday, July 20, 2012
Simon Evenett of the University of St Gallen talks to Viv Davies about the recent increase of protectionist measures in the world trading system. They also discuss the implications of the rise in regional trade agreements, the potential effects of Russia joining the WTO and the impact of slow growth in Europe on the region’s trade with the rest of the world. Evenett maintains that defenders of the world trading system should do more to prevent the current subordination of trade policy. The interview was recorded by telephone on 17 July 2012.
Andrei Shleifer, Sunday, February 5, 2012
Twenty years ago, communist countries began their shift towards capitalism. What do we know now that we didn’t know then? Harvard's Andrei Shleifer, the Russian-born, American-trained economist, provides his answers and their relevance for contemporary policymakers.
Ruediger Fahlenbrach, Robert Prilmeier, René M Stulz, Friday, May 27, 2011
Crises are a regular event in financial markets. But do banks that have been hit particularly hard in one crisis learn from the experience and suffer less in future crises? This column suggests not. It shows that banks particularly hard hit by the 1998 financial crisis were also badly affected by the recent financial crisis. It blames the high-risk business models on which these banks rely.
Barbara Oegg, Kimberly A. Elliott, Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Should Western powers take more significant actions against Russia to punish its hostilities with Georgia? This column, based on analysis of all major sanctions episodes in the 20th century, argues that sanctions against Russia would be futile.
Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, Friday, June 13, 2008
Russia has enjoyed impressive economic performance in recent years. This column takes stock of its success, identifies its growth drivers, and highlights the need for microeconomic and structural reforms.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Jorge Martinez-Vazquez , Klara Sabirianova Peter, Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Russia’s economic and fiscal successes since adopting a flat tax in 2001 have bred enthusiasm for tax reform amongst casual observers. This column summarises research investigating the flat tax’s effects and suggests that many of the gains came from reduced tax evasion in Russia.
Marcus Miller, Jennifer Smith, Thursday, January 10, 2008
In capitalist economies, firms pay higher wages to motivate workers who fear unemployment. In Soviet Russia, Stalin used the Gulag to discipline workers. The economic rationale of the ‘efficiency wage’ model helps explain the cruel brutality of Stalin’s prison camps.