A common theme among many economic policymakers, financial market participants, and the media is that rich industrialised nations face a high risk of deflation, and that deflation always harms economic performance and so must be combatted with aggressive macroeconomic stimulus. Such broad assessments are misleading, and under certain circumstances may lead to misguided policies.
Clarifying the debate about deflation concerns
Mickey Levy, 21 February 2014
More time spent on television and video games, less time spent on studying?
Tomohiko Inui, Ryoji Matsuoka, Makiko Nakamuro, 16 January 2014
Many parents believe that TV and video games are ‘idiot boxes’ that rot their children’s minds and crowd out study time. We agree with this general perception, but add the caveat that less time spent on TV or video games does not automatically lead to more time spent on studying. It is easy to detect the correlation but harder to determine causality.
Sharpening Abenomics’ third arrow: Labour-market reform in Japan
Giovanni Ganelli, 15 January 2014
The share of non-regular workers in Japan, which was below 20% before the burst of the bubble in the early 1990s, has now reached 35% (see Figure 1). The status of regular versus non-regular worker is based on the de facto relationship between workers and their employers, rather than on legal grounds. Regular workers are those who are:
Industrial policy and productivity: The case of import quota removal during post-war Japan
Kozo Kiyota, Tetsuji Okazaki, 6 January 2014
Quantifying the effects of industrial policies is one of the most important research issues in various fields of economics.1 One of the most controversial industrial policies is the Japanese policy during the post-war period.2 The controversy arises because the success of some of the Japanese industrial policies has been used to justify
Supply-chain vulnerability: An analysis of the impact of earthquakes using micro data
Yukiko Umeno Saito, 15 December 2013
Natural disasters have long-lasting consequences (Noy 2012). Two and a half years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake, and although many issues have yet to be resolved – including that of the evacuees – many lessons concerning economic activities have been learned from the unexpected disaster.
The lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Floods in Thailand
Masahisa Fujita, 18 November 2013
The Great East Japan earthquake which occurred on 11 March 2011 had a surpassing 20 meters high that hit several hundred kilometres of the Tohoku coastline on the eastern side of Japan, and cost the lives of approximately 18,000 people. This was followed by a nuclear crisis categorised as level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale.
Reduced policy uncertainty and the Japanese economy
Masayuki Morikawa, 2 November 2013
While the effects of the 'three arrows' of the Japanese Abenomics policy mix – bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and the growth strategy –have attracted worldwide attention, reduced policy uncertainty is also expected to contribute to the country’s economic growth by stimulating long-term investments in the private sector.
The future of Japan’s Long-term Care Insurance Program
Satoshi Shimizutani, 12 September 2013
The debate of social-security-system reform in Japan is now entering a crucial stage.
Consumption-tax fears risk stalling Abe’s ‘three arrows’
Takatoshi Ito, 11 September 2013
Abenomics is Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s policy package consisting of three ‘arrows’:
- Aggressive monetary easing.
- Flexible fiscal policy.
- Growth strategies.
Together, they aim at lifting Japan’s economy from chronic deflation and stagnation to a normal economy with 2% inflation and strong growth.
Identifying conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks
Takeshi Kimura, Jouchi Nakajima, 31 August 2013
The widely used approach to evaluating the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy is the ‘plug-in’ approach, which uses estimates of the impact of unconventional policy measures on asset prices to plug them into standard macroeconomic models. For example, Chung et al. (2012) use the estimate reported in Gagnon et al.
- Internationalisation, innovation, and productivity of firmsAltomonte, Aquilante, Békés, Ottaviano
- How rich nations benefit from EU membershipCampos, Coricelli, Moretti
- The ECB should do QE via forex interventionFrankel
- The chartbook of economic inequalityAtkinson, Morelli
- Predicting economic turning pointsAhir, Loungani
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
Mulgan, 11 April 2014
Campos, Coricelli, Moretti
Ostry, Berg, Tsangarides
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche