Petroleum products such as gasoline and heating oil are produced by refining crude oil. Many oil market analysts believe that the prices for these petroleum products contain useful information about the future evolution of the price of crude oil.
Are product spreads useful for forecasting the price of oil?
Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou, 24 September 2013
New tools for forecasting the real price of crude oil
Lutz Kilian, 23 June 2011
The real (inflation-adjusted) price of crude oil is a key variable in the macroeconomic projections generated by central banks, private sector forecasters, and international organisations (IMF 2005, 2007).
Oil prices: risks and opportunities
Francesco Lippi, 11 June 2008
Recent research by Jim Hamilton shows that the correlation between the price of oil and US production is unstable; it was negative and high in the 1970s but much smaller in more recent years.1 Nevertheless, the recent surge in oil prices gives rise to worries in Western economies – memories of the recessions of the ‘70s and early ‘80s are still v
The economic effects of energy price shocks
Lutz Kilian, 13 November 2007
In Discussion Paper 6559 Research Fellow Lutz Killian dispels a number of myths concerning oil price shocks and their impact on the US economy. What is the origin of oil price shocks?
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