Central Banking works by guiding the expectations of savers, investors, consumers and markets – not an easy job. This column, based on the latest report in CEPR’s series ‘Monitoring the European Central Bank’, argues that the job would be easier if the ECB published its anticipated interest rate path and voting records.
Petra Geraats, Francesco Giavazzi, Charles Wyplosz, Thursday, February 7, 2008 - 00:00
Carlo Favero, Francesco Giavazzi, Monday, January 21, 2008 - 00:00
The European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has created a new economic area, larger and closer with respect to the rest of the world. Area-specific shocks are more important than country-specific, thus it is not surprising the European Central Bank (ECB) use models to study optimal monetary policy in the Euro area assuming it works essentially as a closed economy, hit primarily by domestic shocks. The authors of CEPR DP6654 explore the variable most directly related to current and expected monetary policy, the yield on long-term government bonds, and determine whether the response of long-term rates is consistent with a closed economy.
Tommaso Monacelli, Friday, December 14, 2007 - 00:00
The ECB’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged lacks transparency and appears inconsistent with the specific policy framework that the ECB itself has decided to embrace. In the current period of great uncertainty, transparency would pay large dividends.
Benjamin K. Johannsen, Andrew Levin, Wednesday, October 24, 2007 - 00:00
Recent history of long-run inflation expectations suggests reasonably well-anchored expectations in both regions, however no studies to date have compared the recent evolution and dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections in the United States to those in the EU. The authors of CEPR DP6536 use daily evidence from financial markets and surveys, which reveal a substantially greater degree of forecaster disagreement about long-run inflation outcomes in the United States than in the euro area.
Stephen Cecchetti, Wednesday, August 15, 2007 - 00:00
A revised and updated version of the 13 August column on the basic how's and why's of what the Fed has been doing to calm financial markets.
Stephen Cecchetti, Monday, August 13, 2007 - 00:00
Here are the basic how's and why's of what the Fed has been doing to calm financial markets.
Charles Wyplosz, Saturday, July 21, 2007 - 00:00
The ECB’s opacity, lack of open debate and refusal to decide by voting bear at least some responsibility in the declining support for the euro. This makes the ECB an easy target for politicians looking for scapegoats. For the good of the Euro-area citizens, the ECB ought to change its ways.
Francesco Giavazzi, Tuesday, June 19, 2007 - 00:00
Sarkozy repeatedly criticised the European Central Bank during the campaign; his intuition was correct but his aim was off. By forcing the ECB to be more transparent and accountable, he would contribute to improving monetary policy in Europe.
Michael Woodford, Monday, March 26, 2007 - 00:00
Should money supply play a role in monetary policy-making? The author of CEPR DP6211 reviews the pros and cons and finds that there are no compelling reasons to assign a prominent role to monetary aggregates in monetary policy-making. The goals of the ECB's two-pillar strategy - which includes a role for money - are praiseworthy; the author believes that ECB justifications for looking at monetary aggregates provide little support for this approach.
Olivier Blanchard, Francesco Giavazzi, Thursday, December 1, 2005 - 00:00
Written in December 2005: No central bank, not even the ECB can focus exclusively on inflation. Adopting policy that allows it to consider economic activity would require the ECB to articulate its rationale with great care, but its British and American counterparts show how. Credibility does not require dogmatism, but rather clarity of purpose.