The Eurozone might not survive in its current form. Buiter and Rahbari (2012) put a likelihood of 50% on Greek exit – an event that would be something between an historic event and a global economic catastrophe (depending on how it was handled).
The EZ breakup contest: Take ignorance seriously
Richard Baldwin, 10 April 2012
The problems of European monetary union – asymmetric shocks or asymmetric behaviour?
Andrea Boltho, Wendy Carlin, 31 March 2012
Much of the literature that was sceptical of the prospective success of the euro feared the effects of Mundellian asymmetric shocks on an area which (unlike the US) had little inter-country labour mobility and no common fiscal policy.
From vicious to virtuous: A five-point plan for Eurozone restoration
Marco Buti, Pier Carlo Padoan, 27 March 2012
Download CEPR Policy Insight No. 61 here .  http://voxeu.org/sites/default/files/file/PolicyInsight61.pdf
From a vicious to a virtuous circle in the Eurozone - the time is ripe
Marco Buti, Pier Carlo Padoan, 27 March 2012
The economic and financial crisis in the Eurozone is in its fourth year. In late 2011, it had evolved dangerously into a vicious circle of sluggish growth, tensions in sovereign debt markets and banking sector fragility.
Fiscal consolidations for debt-to-GDP ratio containment? Maybe … but with much care
Gianluca Cafiso, Roberto Cellini, 20 March 2012
In recent time a wide debate has been developing concerning the effects of restrictive fiscal policies on the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio (eg Corsetti and Müller 2012). The debate is nourished by the current experience of EU countries, where fiscal-consolidation policies are implemented.
Fed versus ECB: How Target debts can be repaid
Hans-Werner Sinn, 10 March 2012
Now that Bundesbank President Jens Weidman has expressed his concern about the rising TARGET balances within the Eurozone in an official letter to Mario Draghi, the issue can no longer be swept under the carpet. In February, the Bundesbank had a TARGET claim of €547 billion on the Eurosystem, while the Dutch central bank had one of €171 billion in January.
Brinkmanship in Brussels, Sturm and Drachma for Greece and Europe
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 1 March 2012
Just as it did when Congress recently extended the payroll tax cut, brinkmanship has produced an early-morning deal in Europe to extend a new lifeline to Greece and clear the way for the biggest sovereign bond restructuring in history.
Apart from the fiscal compact – on competitiveness, nominal wages and labour productivity
Marga Peeters, Ard den Reijer, 3 January 2012
Eurozone members that face the consequences of severe asymmetric shocks can, in the absence of labour mobility, accommodate by means of fiscal transfers. In order to avoid becoming a one-way transfer union from the core to the periphery, the EU needs to address structural imbalances and persistent current-account deficits and surpluses that are due to real exchange-rate misalignment.
Deleveraging in the Eurozone
Vincent O'Sullivan, Stephen Kinsella, 17 December 2011
The capital shortfall at EU banks is 8% higher than originally thought, according to the latest assessment from the European Banking Authority (EBA 2011) released on 8 December.
From trade to domestic collapse? On the complementarity between exports and domestic sales
Nicolas Berman, Antoine Berthou, Jérôme Héricourt, 16 December 2011
The Eurozone is close to slipping into a recession. The most recent OECD forecasts point to an average growth of 0.2% of GDP in volume within the EZ151 in 2012, ranging from -3% (Greece and Portugal) and -0.5% (Italy), to +0.6% (Germany) and +1% (Ireland).
- Predicting economic turning pointsAhir, Loungani
- How rich nations benefit from EU membershipCampos, Coricelli, Moretti
- The chartbook of economic inequalityAtkinson, Morelli
- Taxing, spending, and inequalityClements, Coady, de Mooij, Gupta
- How poorer nations benefit from EU membershipCampos, Coricelli, Moretti
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
Claessens, 18 April 2014
Campos, Coricelli, Moretti
Ostry, Berg, Tsangarides
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche
- Making city lights shine brighterYusuf, Leipziger
- The euro in the 'currency war'Bénassy-Quéré, Martin
- The roots of shadow bankingPerotti
- What’s wrong with Europe?Baldini, Manasse
- How the EZ crisis is permanently changing EU institutionsMicossi
- The 13th Annual GEP Postgraduate Conference 20141 - 2 May 2014 / Nottingham / Sponsored by Nottingham Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy (GEP) University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
- Exchange Rates and External Adjustment2 - 3 June 2014 / Zurich / Swiss National Bank
- 13th Summer School in International Development Economics: Investment, Saving and Wellbeing in Developing Countries10 - 13 June 2014 / Palazzo Feltrinelli, Gargnano, Lake Garda (Italy)