How to climb a mountain with both hands tied

Jean Pisani-Ferry 07 November 2014

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Against the background of lacklustre global demand, economic growth in Europe has weakened again. In the Eurozone, a third recession in less than seven years is a distinct possibility. Yet economic policy looks powerless. On the monetary side, although the ECB may still embark on a genuine programme of quantitative easing, such action is unlikely to deliver a major boost because the benchmark 10-year government bonds already yield just 1%.

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Topics:  Environment EU policies Macroeconomic policy Microeconomic regulation

Tags:  Europe, eurozone, recession, stimulus, monetary policy, quantitative easing, fiscal policy, structural reforms, labour market reforms, liquidity trap, investment, Cash for clunkers, scrapping subsidies, environment, regulation, emissions standards

Italian growth: New recession or six-year decline?

Jeffrey Frankel 11 August 2014

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Italians and the world have now been told that their economy slipped back into recession in the first half of 2014. This characterisation is based on the criterion for recession that is standard in Europe and most countries – two successive quarters of negative growth. But this is not the only way to identify recessions.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions Global crisis Global economy

Tags:  recession, recession criteria

Durable consumption during recessions

David Berger, Joseph Vavra 03 July 2014

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Over the course of the Great Recession, purchases of new vehicles and other consumer durables fell by $153 billion. Purchases of new homes and other forms of residential investments declined by more than $260 billion. All-told, declines in broadly defined durable spending accounted for more than half of the total decline in GDP during the Recession.

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Topics:  Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  recession, durable consumption spending

Has the Great Recession harmed the long-term growth prospects of the Eurozone economy?

Philippe Weil interviewed by Viv Davies,

Date Published

Fri, 06/20/2014

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See Also

CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee (2014), "Eurozone mired in recession pause", VoxEU.org, 17 June.

CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee (2014), "Euro Area Mired in Recession Pause", www.cepr.org, 11 June.

 

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Topics

Europe's nations and regions Global crisis
Tags
eurozone, growth, GDP, recession, business cycles, CEPR, trough, business cycle dating, expansion, peak

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Recoveries: The missing third phase of the business cycle When did the Eurozone recession end? The US recession ended in May Eurozone in recession since 3rd quarter 2011
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Eurozone mired in recession pause

CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee 17 June 2014

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The CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee met on 11 June 2014 to determine whether the Eurozone is out of the recession that started after 2011Q3. The duty of the Committee – comprised of Philippe Weil (Chair), Domenico Giannone, Refet Gürkaynak, Monika Merz, Richard Portes, Lucrezia Reichlin, Albrecht Ritschl, Barbara Rossi, and Karl Whelan – is to date peaks and troughs of the Eurozone business cycle, marking recessions and expansions – a role similar to that of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee in the US.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions Global crisis

Tags:  eurozone, growth, GDP, recession, business cycles, CEPR, trough, business cycle dating, expansion, peak

Reconciling Hayek's and Keynes' views of recessions

Paul Beaudry, Dana Galizia, Franck Portier 01 June 2014

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There remains considerable debate regarding the causes and consequences of recessions. Two views that are often presented as opposing, and which created controversy in the recent recession and its aftermath, are:

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Topics:  Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  recession, Keynesianism, Hayekian recession

Tackling long-term unemployment: The research evidence

Barbara Petrongolo 27 April 2014

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During the Great Recession, UK unemployment increased from about 5% to 8%, with a disproportionate increase in the number of long-term unemployed. Of the nearly 2.5 million people who are currently unemployed, more than a third have been out of work for over 12 months (up from a fifth at the start of the recession), and a fifth have been out of work for over two years. The rising incidence of long-term unemployment is a distinctive feature of virtually all recessions, as job-finding rates tend to remain persistently low even after the first signs of a recovery.

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Topics:  Global crisis Labour markets

Tags:  recession, UK, long-term unemployment

From recession to normalcy: Recoveries as a third phase of the business cycle

Antonio Fatás, Ilian Mihov 14 August 2013

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According to the NBER business cycle dating committee, the last recession in the US ended in June 2009 (NBER 2013). Three years later US unemployment remains high and most estimates suggest that output remains below potential; a pattern also present in other advanced economies. As a result, central banks have made explicit commitments to keep interest rates at low levels until the recovery is firmly established, referring to a future date when the economy is close enough to ‘normal’.

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Topics:  Global crisis

Tags:  recession, recovery

The hysterical economy

Laurence J. Kotlikoff 16 December 2012

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Imagine that you are an employer. Every day you hear, “the economy’s going over a fiscal cliff. Tax hikes and spending cuts totalling $600 billion will kill the economy”. Everyone is saying it - the politicians, the media, the economists, the Fed, the CBO, the IMF. So it must be true. Sure, the Republicans and Democrats may make a deal and save the day. But these guys never agree and, meanwhile, economic doomsday - January 1st - is just weeks away.

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Topics:  Global crisis Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  recession, USA, global crisis

Have the US and European economies parted company? The signals are increasingly clear

Lucrezia Reichlin, Domenico Giannone, Jasper McMahon, Saverio Simonelli 02 May 2012

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According to the NBER (2012), the last recession ended in June of 2009. CEPR (2012) dates the end of the recession in the Eurozone in the same quarter. For the UK, there is no established chronology but a visual inspection of Figure 1 shows that the recession and the subsequent recovery in the three economies have been highly synchronised.

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Topics:  Global economy

Tags:  US, Europe, recession, UK, business cycle, recovery

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