Italian growth: New recession or six-year decline?

Jeffrey Frankel, 11 August 2014

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Italians and the world have now been told that their economy slipped back into recession in the first half of 2014. This characterisation is based on the criterion for recession that is standard in Europe and most countries – two successive quarters of negative growth. But this is not the only way to identify recessions.

Topics: Europe's nations and regions, Global crisis, Global economy
Tags: recession, recession criteria

Durable consumption during recessions

David Berger, Joseph Vavra, 3 July 2014

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Over the course of the Great Recession, purchases of new vehicles and other consumer durables fell by $153 billion. Purchases of new homes and other forms of residential investments declined by more than $260 billion. All-told, declines in broadly defined durable spending accounted for more than half of the total decline in GDP during the Recession.

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: durable consumption spending, recession

Has the Great Recession harmed the long-term growth prospects of the Eurozone economy?

Philippe Weil interviewed by Viv Davies, 20 Jun 2014

The CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee recently concluded that there is not yet enough evidence to call a business cycle trough in the Eurozone. Instead, the committee has announced a 'prolonged pause' in the recession. This Vox Talk discusses the possible directions that this situation could lead to and questions whether the Great Recession has harmed the Eurozone’s long-term growth prospects to the extent that meagre growth could become the 'new normal'.

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See Also

CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee (2014), "Eurozone mired in recession pause", VoxEU.org, 17 June.

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Topics: Europe's nations and regions, Global crisis
Tags: business cycle dating, business cycles, CEPR, eurozone, expansion, GDP, growth, peak, recession, trough

Eurozone mired in recession pause

CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee, 17 June 2014

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The CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee met on 11 June 2014 to determine whether the Eurozone is out of the recession that started after 2011Q3.

Topics: Europe's nations and regions, Global crisis
Tags: business cycle dating, business cycles, CEPR, eurozone, expansion, GDP, growth, peak, recession, trough

Reconciling Hayek's and Keynes' views of recessions

Paul Beaudry, Dana Galizia, Franck Portier, 1 June 2014

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There remains considerable debate regarding the causes and consequences of recessions. Two views that are often presented as opposing, and which created controversy in the recent recession and its aftermath, are:

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: Hayekian recession, Keynesianism, recession

Tackling long-term unemployment: The research evidence

Barbara Petrongolo, 27 April 2014

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During the Great Recession, UK unemployment increased from about 5% to 8%, with a disproportionate increase in the number of long-term unemployed. Of the nearly 2.5 million people who are currently unemployed, more than a third have been out of work for over 12 months (up from a fifth at the start of the recession), and a fifth have been out of work for over two years.

Topics: Global crisis, Labour markets
Tags: long-term unemployment, recession, UK

From recession to normalcy: Recoveries as a third phase of the business cycle

Antonio Fatás, Ilian Mihov, 14 August 2013

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According to the NBER business cycle dating committee, the last recession in the US ended in June 2009 (NBER 2013). Three years later US unemployment remains high and most estimates suggest that output remains below potential; a pattern also present in other advanced economies.

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: recession, recovery

The hysterical economy

Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 16 December 2012

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Imagine that you are an employer. Every day you hear, “the economy’s going over a fiscal cliff. Tax hikes and spending cuts totalling $600 billion will kill the economy”. Everyone is saying it - the politicians, the media, the economists, the Fed, the CBO, the IMF. So it must be true. Sure, the Republicans and Democrats may make a deal and save the day.

Topics: Global crisis, Macroeconomic policy
Tags: global crisis, recession, USA

Have the US and European economies parted company? The signals are increasingly clear

Lucrezia Reichlin, Domenico Giannone, Jasper McMahon, Saverio Simonelli, 2 May 2012

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According to the NBER (2012), the last recession ended in June of 2009. CEPR (2012) dates the end of the recession in the Eurozone in the same quarter. For the UK, there is no established chronology but a visual inspection of Figure 1 shows that the recession and the subsequent recovery in the three economies have been highly synchronised.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: business cycle, Europe, recession, recovery, UK, US

What caused the recession of 1937-38?

Douglas Irwin, 11 September 2011

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The recession of 1937-38 is sometimes called “the recession within the Depression.” It came at a time when the recovery from the Great Depression was far from complete and the unemployment rate was still very high. In fact, it was a disastrous setback to the recovery.

Topics: Economic history, Global crisis, Macroeconomic policy, Monetary policy
Tags: gold standard, Great Depression, monetary policy, recession, US

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