The predictability of exchange rates is a crucial question in international finance and macroeconomics. Policy decisions of central banks and policymakers all over the world rely, directly or indirectly, on exchange rate forecasts. The same holds for private business and practitioners' decisions.
Are exchange rates predictable?
Barbara Rossi , 14 November 2013
Should Brazil’s central bank be selling foreign reserves?
Márcio Garcia, 25 September 2013
The US dollar’s rise in August and the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) interventions in forex markets have started a debate about whether the BCB should keep on intervening as it has been doing, mostly via currency derivatives markets, or if it should also be selling its international reserves.
The real exchange rate and export growth: Are services different?
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, 18 January 2013
The role of exports in economic growth and, in turn, of the real exchange rate in export promotion features prominently in literature on development and globalisation (Rodrik 2009, Haddad and Pancaro 2010). Much of this literature dates, however, from an era when ‘exports’ meant ‘exports of merchandise‘.
Currency intervention as global monetary easing: The case of Japan in 2003-04
Petra Gerlach-Kristen, Robert McCauley, Kazuo Ueda, 7 November 2012
One consequence of monetary easing in major economies most affected by the financial crisis is the subsequent currency appreciation in apparently separate economies that are less affected by the crisis, such as those of Japan, Switzerland, and many emerging economies.
The risk in carry trades
Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf, 23 March 2011
The “carry trade” is the most popular trading strategy in currency markets. Traders borrow in currencies with low interest rates (negative forward premium) and invest in currencies with high interest rates (positive forward premium), profiting from the margin. Yet according to the uncovered interest parity this strategy should not work.
The capital-inflow “problem” revisited
Carmen M Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart, 25 February 2011
For three decades, the predominantly prevailing presumption among economic analysts and financial authorities was that the flow of financial capital would become increasingly freer (see for example IMF 2000 and an earlier discussion in Calvo et al. 1994).
What drives reserve accumulation (and at what cost)?
Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 30 September 2010
The argument against reserve accumulation by emerging economies is often built on three premises:
A New Keynesian Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis
Wendy Carlin, David Soskice, 23 August 2010
Topics: Exchange rates, Global economy, Macroeconomic policy, Monetary policy
Tags: exchange rates, inflation, Keynesian economics, monetary policy
How will the new exchange rate regime affect the Chinese economy?
Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K Rose, 21 June 2010
China’s announcement on 19 June that it will abandon its currency peg to the dollar and henceforth manage the renminbi more flexibly against a basket of currencies will have implications for the world economy, but most of all it will have implications for China (Evenett 2010).
International reserves and swap lines: substitutes or complements?
Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, Donghyun Park, 3 April 2010
In a recent Vox column, Auer and Kraenzlin (2009) pointed out that the world’s major central banks used swap agreement to address mismatches in their currency-specific liquidity needs during the recent global crisis – measures that were highly effective and came at a very low cost.
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