Since the onset of the Great Recession, much of the world has been in a state of economic winter: nearly 50 countries were in recession in 2009 and 15 countries slipped into recession in 2012. After weak global growth in 2013, economic forecasters are predicting a rosier outlook this year and next. Can these forecasts be trusted?
“There will be growth in the spring”: How well do economists predict turning points?
Hites Ahir, Prakash Loungani, 14 April 2014
Fact-checking financial recessions: US-UK update
Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor, 24 October 2012
Debate on the “What should we have expected in terms of economic recovery?” question is raging on the internet (Reinhart and Rogoff 2012, Taylor 2012). Since publishing our widely-read column a few weeks ago, we have received several enquiries asking if we can apply the same benchmarks to evaluate the current performance of the UK economy. We now can.
Recessions and small business access to credit: Lessons for Europe from interstate banking deregulation in the US
Mathias Hoffmann, Iryna Stewen, 19 February 2012
The European sovereign debt crisis is often viewed as a banking crisis in disguise (see, for instance, Mody and Sandri 2011 on this site). Policymakers are rightly concerned about the prospect that ever more cautious banks may eventually stop lending to small and medium-sized businesses (or enterprises, known as SMEs).
Calling recessions in real time
James D. Hamilton, 18 July 2010
Is the world economy about to experience a "double-dip" recession, going back into a new downturn before the recovery from the previous recession is even complete? Or, if there is a subsequent downturn, should it be described as a new, separate recession? The answer requires an objective characterisation of what we mean when we say the economy is in a recession.
Oil prices and the economic recession of 2007-08
James D. Hamilton, 16 June 2009
Big oil price increases that were associated with events such as the 1973-74 embargo by the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Iranian Revolution in 1978, the Iran-Iraq War in 1980, and the First Persian Gulf War in 1990 were each followed by a global economic recession.
From recession to recovery: A long and hard road
Prakash Kannan, Marco E Terrones, Alasdair Scott , 6 May 2009
The advanced economies are experiencing a financial crisis and a highly synchronised recession, which is a very rare combination of events. This raises three questions; Are recessions and recoveries associated with financial crises different from others? What are the main features of globally synchronised recessions?
What Keynes should have said
Roger E. A. Farmer , 4 February 2009
For more than seventy years, policy makers have used Keynesian monetary and fiscal policies to control recessions (Keynes 1936). Although these policies are widely perceived to have been successful in stabilising the business cycle, academics gave up on Keynesian theory in the 1970s.
Are there cleansing effects of recessions? Entry and exit of manufacturing plants over the business cycle
Yoonsoo Lee, Toshihiko Mukoyama, 7 January 2008
Creative destruction is a major driving force of modern market economies.1 Firms enter and exit the marketplace, plants are built and destroyed, and workers change jobs and occupations.
- Predicting economic turning pointsAhir, Loungani
- How rich nations benefit from EU membershipCampos, Coricelli, Moretti
- The chartbook of economic inequalityAtkinson, Morelli
- Taxing, spending, and inequalityClements, Coady, de Mooij, Gupta
- How poorer nations benefit from EU membershipCampos, Coricelli, Moretti
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- The ECB’s stealth bailoutSinn
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
Claessens, 18 April 2014
Campos, Coricelli, Moretti
Ostry, Berg, Tsangarides