“There will be growth in the spring”: How well do economists predict turning points?

Hites Ahir, Prakash Loungani, 14 April 2014

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Since the onset of the Great Recession, much of the world has been in a state of economic winter: nearly 50 countries were in recession in 2009 and 15 countries slipped into recession in 2012. After weak global growth in 2013, economic forecasters are predicting a rosier outlook this year and next. Can these forecasts be trusted?

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: forecasting, recessions

Fact-checking financial recessions: US-UK update

Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor, 24 October 2012

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Debate on the “What should we have expected in terms of economic recovery?” question is raging on the internet (Reinhart and Rogoff 2012, Taylor 2012). Since publishing our widely-read column a few weeks ago, we have received several enquiries asking if we can apply the same benchmarks to evaluate the current performance of the UK economy. We now can.

Topics: Economic history, Global crisis, Macroeconomic policy
Tags: credit, financial crises, recessions

Recessions and small business access to credit: Lessons for Europe from interstate banking deregulation in the US

Mathias Hoffmann, Iryna Stewen, 19 February 2012

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The European sovereign debt crisis is often viewed as a banking crisis in disguise (see, for instance, Mody and Sandri 2011 on this site). Policymakers are rightly concerned about the prospect that ever more cautious banks may eventually stop lending to small and medium-sized businesses (or enterprises, known as SMEs).

Topics: International finance
Tags: banking deregulation, credit, recessions, SMEs

Calling recessions in real time

James D. Hamilton, 18 July 2010

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Is the world economy about to experience a "double-dip" recession, going back into a new downturn before the recovery from the previous recession is even complete? Or, if there is a subsequent downturn, should it be described as a new, separate recession? The answer requires an objective characterisation of what we mean when we say the economy is in a recession.

Topics: Global crisis, Global economy
Tags: business cycle, economic forecasting, recessions

Oil prices and the economic recession of 2007-08

James D. Hamilton, 16 June 2009

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Big oil price increases that were associated with events such as the 1973-74 embargo by the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Iranian Revolution in 1978, the Iran-Iraq War in 1980, and the First Persian Gulf War in 1990 were each followed by a global economic recession.

Topics: Energy, Global economy
Tags: oil shocks, recessions

From recession to recovery: A long and hard road

Prakash Kannan, Marco E Terrones, Alasdair Scott , 6 May 2009

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The advanced economies are experiencing a financial crisis and a highly synchronised recession, which is a very rare combination of events. This raises three questions; Are recessions and recoveries associated with financial crises different from others? What are the main features of globally synchronised recessions?

Topics: Global crisis, Global economy
Tags: economic recovery, financial crises, recessions

What Keynes should have said

Roger E. A. Farmer , 4 February 2009

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For more than seventy years, policy makers have used Keynesian monetary and fiscal policies to control recessions (Keynes 1936). Although these policies are widely perceived to have been successful in stabilising the business cycle, academics gave up on Keynesian theory in the 1970s.

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: Keynesian economics, recessions, unemployment

Are there cleansing effects of recessions? Entry and exit of manufacturing plants over the business cycle

Yoonsoo Lee, Toshihiko Mukoyama, 7 January 2008

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Creative destruction is a major driving force of modern market economies.1 Firms enter and exit the marketplace, plants are built and destroyed, and workers change jobs and occupations.

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: business cycles, creative destruction, recessions, US manufacturing

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