The investor base matters since different investors behave differently. During the emerging-market sell-off episodes in 2013 and early 2014:
New-breed global investors and emerging-market financial stability
Gaston Gelos, Hiroko Oura, 23 August 2014
Topics: Financial markets, International finance
Tags: capital flows, emerging markets, financial deepening, financial stability, herding, institutional investors, investment, mutual funds, original sin, Pension Funds
Central banks in developing countries should consider targeting nominal GDP
Pranjul Bhandari, Jeffrey Frankel, 21 August 2014
Central banks still seek transparent and credible communication. But signalling intentions, through forward guidance or some degree of commitment to an intermediate target, poses a difficult tradeoff.
The transmission of Federal Reserve tapering news to emerging financial markets
Joshua Aizenman, Mahir Binici, Michael M Hutchison, 4 April 2014
The quantitative easing (QE) policies of the US Federal Reserve in the years following the crisis of 2008–2009 included monthly securities purchases of long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities totalling $85 billion in 2013. The cumulative outcome of these policies has been an unprecedented increase of the monetary base, mitigating the deflationary pressure of the crisis.
Managing the exchange rate: It's not how much, but how
Atish R Ghosh, Jonathan D Ostry, Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, 2 April 2014
The choice of exchange rate regime is a perennial issue faced by emerging markets. Conventional wisdom, especially after the emerging markets crises of the late 1990s, was the bipolar prescription: countries should choose between either floats (the soft end of the prescription) or hard pegs (monetary union, dollarisation, currency board).
Political connections in turbulent times
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak, Todd Mitton, 25 February 2014
When assessing the political situation in many countries, it is common practice, and entirely reasonable, to consider who has what kind of personal connection to people in, or contending for, power.
Turmoil in emerging markets: What’s missing from the story?
Kristin Forbes, 5 February 2014
Emerging markets are going through another period of volatility – and the most popular boogeyman is the US Federal Reserve.
Why fiscal sustainability matters
Willem Buiter, 10 January 2014
Does fiscal sustainability matter only when there is a fiscal house on fire, as was the case with the Greek sovereign insolvency in 2011–12? Far from it.
Topics: Financial markets, Global crisis, International finance, Macroeconomic policy
Tags: balance-sheet recession, banking, banking union, banks, capital flows, credit booms, Currency wars, emerging markets, eurozone, Eurozone crisis, financial crisis, fiscal policy, fiscal sustainability, global financial crisis, sovereign debt, sovereign debt restructuring
The next sudden stop
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 7 January 2014
The ominous facts are well known – the strongest predictors of financial crises are domestic credit booms and external debts (Reinhart and Rogoff 2011). In emerging markets, credit booms are generally preceded by large capital inflows (Reinhart and Reinhart 2010).
Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, 19 December 2013
In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of the US central bank tapering its securities purchases from $85 billion a month to something lower. A milestone to which many observers point is 22 May 2013, when Chairman Bernanke raised the possibility of tapering in his testimony to Congress.
A new eBook: Understanding Banks in Emerging Markets
Thorsten Beck, Ralph De Haas, Steven Ongena, 6 November 2013
Banking is often modelled as a black box – especially banks in emerging markets where details of bank operations are less widely appreciated.
- Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBookTeulings, Baldwin
- Can large primary surpluses solve Europe’s debt problem?Eichengreen, Panizza
- The unrecognised benefits of grade inflationBoleslavsky, Cotton
- The US manufacturing base is surprisingly strongMoran, Oldenski
- Italian growth: New recession or six-year decline?Frankel
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
- Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A new modelKrugman
CEPR Policy Research
- The buyer margins of firms' exportsCarballo, Ottaviano, Volpe
- Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula ApproachDelatte, Lopez
- Ethnic Unemployment Rates and Frictional MarketsGobillon, Rupert, Wasmer
- Finance and Poverty: Evidence from IndiaAyyagari, Beck, Hoseini
- The Manipulation of Basel Risk-WeightsMariathasan, Merrouche
- The economics of Scottish independence in an interdependent worldHughes Hallett
- Making city lights shine brighterYusuf, Leipziger
- The euro in the 'currency war'Bénassy-Quéré, Martin
- The roots of shadow bankingPerotti
- What’s wrong with Europe?Baldini, Manasse
- Corporate Finance Theory Symposium19 - 20 September 2014 / Cambridge / Judge Business School, Cambridge University
- International Trade, Finance, and Macroeconomics: Research Frontiers and Challenges for Policy18 - 19 December 2014 / The Bank of England, London / The Bank of England, Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR