The Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) – an ESRC-funded research centre including the University of Cambridge, the London School of Economics (LSE), University College London (UCL) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) – is today publishing the results of its fourth monthly survey.1 The surveys are designed to inform the public
It’s time to deploy macroprudential policy: results from the Centre for Macroeconomics July Survey
Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha, Wouter den Haan, 8 July 2014
Revisiting the pain in Spain
Paul De Grauwe, 7 July 2014
The different macroeconomic adjustment dynamics in Spain – a member of a monetary union – and the UK – a stand-alone country – is stark. Paul Krugman popularised this contrast in his New York Times blog with the title “The Pain in Spain” (Krugman 2009, 2011), and commented on my own analysis in De Grauwe (2011).
Topics: Europe's nations and regions, Global crisis, Macroeconomic policy
Tags: austerity, currency depreciation, ECB, EMU, euro, EZ crisis, fiscal policy, government debt, monetary policy, monetary union, Outright Monetary Transactions, Spain, UK
The great British jobs and productivity mystery
João Paulo Pessoa, John Van Reenen, 28 June 2014
With some economic recovery having finally got underway, the UK is still feeling the repercussions of the so-called ‘Great Recession’. National output, as measured by GDP, fell by over 7% from its peak in January 2008 – the biggest fall since the inter-war years – and only returned to its pre-crisis level in April 2014 (NIESR 2014).
Why monetary policy matters: New UK narrative evidence
James Cloyne, Patrick Hürtgen, 15 May 2014
In recent decades, central banks around the world have predominantly used interest rates as their main monetary policy instrument. And while the zero lower bound has necessitated a range of unconventional monetary policies, many central banks clearly still intend to use interest rates as their preferred tool as their economies recover.
Falling real wages in the UK
David Blanchflower, Stephen Machin, 12 May 2014
There have been unprecedented falls in real wages in the UK since the start of the recession triggered by the financial crisis of 2008. This did not happen in previous economic downturns – median real wage growth slowed down or stalled, but it did not fall.
Tackling long-term unemployment: The research evidence
Barbara Petrongolo, 27 April 2014
During the Great Recession, UK unemployment increased from about 5% to 8%, with a disproportionate increase in the number of long-term unemployed. Of the nearly 2.5 million people who are currently unemployed, more than a third have been out of work for over 12 months (up from a fifth at the start of the recession), and a fifth have been out of work for over two years.
UK macroeconomists see potential for higher growth: results of the first Centre for Macroeconomics survey
Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha, Wouter den Haan, 14 April 2014
The Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) – a partnership between the University of Cambridge, the London School of Economics (LSE), University College London (UCL), the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) – is today publishing the results of a new monthly survey to inform the public about the views held by leading UK based macroeconomists on
Say on pay in the UK: Modest effect, even after the crisis
Ian Gregory-Smith, Steve Thompson, Peter Wright, 24 March 2014
The extensive academic literature on the growth of executive compensation has tended to polarise around one of two positions: the rents-capture view and the optimal contracting approach. These analyses lead to very different positions on the value of a ‘say on pay’ policy:
What can company data tell us about financing and investment decisions?
Katie Farrant, Magda Rutkowska, Konstantinos Theodoridis, 9 February 2014
Following the financial crisis, UK companies revised their spending and financing decisions dramatically. They reduced investment by around 13% in real terms between 2008 and 2012 (Besley and Van Reenen 2013, Haddow et al. 2013). But during that same period, corporate bond issuance by UK companies was strong, with record corporate bond issuance in 2012.
The long term economic impacts of reducing migration
Katerina Lisenkova, 10 January 2014
The large influx of immigrants following the accession of eastern European countries to the EU in 2004 brought migration policy to the forefront of the public agenda and political debate. Large net migration flows are a relatively recent phenomenon in the UK; consistent positive net migration numbers have only been observed since the 1990s.
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
- Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A new modelKrugman
Cadot, de Melo, 16 June 2014