Does policy uncertainty reduce economic activity? Insights and evidence from large trade reforms

Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão, 23 November 2013

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The impact of policy uncertainty on economic activity is an issue traditionally associated with developing countries. Since 2008, however, the spotlight has shifted. Governments’ responses to the Great Recession and the Eurozone crisis have raised considerable uncertainty about the future policies of advanced economies.

Topics: International trade
Tags: China, Eurozone crisis, Great Recession, trade, uncertainty, US, WTO

Journal quality and citations: Why economists should practice what they preach

Daniel Sgroi, 11 November 2013

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The UK is about to enter into one of the most important academic ranking exercises in its history. The Research Excellence Framework (or REF), starting in 2014, will determine how money is divided between departments and how the UK perceives the quality of its own universities and departments.

Topics: Education
Tags: academia, Bayes’ rule, higher education, journals, rankings, uncertainty

Reduced policy uncertainty and the Japanese economy

Masayuki Morikawa, 2 November 2013

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While the effects of the 'three arrows' of the Japanese Abenomics policy mix – bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and the growth strategy –have attracted worldwide attention, reduced policy uncertainty is also expected to contribute to the country’s economic growth by stimulating long-term investments in the private sector.

Topics: Institutions and economics
Tags: economic growth, Japan, uncertainty

Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy

Knut Are Aastveit, Gisle James Natvik, Sergio Sola, 19 October 2013

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Since the onset of the “Great recession”, economists have struggled to explain why the recovery has been so slow, despite the many policy measures that have been passed to re-invigorate economic activity. One candidate explanation that several have pointed to, for instance Baker, Bloom, Davis and Van Reenen (2012), is economic uncertainty.

Topics: Monetary policy
Tags: Great Recession, monetary policy, uncertainty

Facing up to uncertainty in climate-change economics

Geoffrey Heal, Antony Millner, 13 June 2013

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Uncertainty is intrinsic in climate change economics. We know that increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are causing shifts in the climate, but not precisely how large these shifts will be, nor when and where they will occur. Neither do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes, or the options that will be available for coping with them in the future.

Topics: Environment
Tags: climate change, uncertainty

Falling policy uncertainty is igniting the US recovery

Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, 7 February 2012

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Because economic policy affects economic outcomes, policy uncertainty matters (Hallward-Driemeier and Pritchett 2010, Bloom 2009, and Bloom et al. 2007). Reading the business press, one gets the impression that the world of policy (taxation, regulation, fiscal stimulus, etc.) is in a very uncertain state in the US, Europe, Japan, and several of the biggest emerging markets.

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: policy, uncertainty, US recovery

Growth from international capital flows: The role of volatility regimes

Ashoka Mody, Antu Panini Murshid, 27 November 2011

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In a recent survey, Kose et al (2006) find little robust evidence for long-run growth benefits from global capital inflows. Prasad et al (2006) go a step further.

Topics: International finance, International trade
Tags: capital flows, uncertainty, volatility

Should official forecasts express uncertainty? The case of the CBO

Charles F Manski, 22 November 2011

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Governments regularly produce official forecasts of unknown accuracy. Some forecasts become ‘conventional certitudes’ – predictions that are generally accepted as true, but are not necessarily true.

Topics: Global governance, Politics and economics
Tags: Confidence intervals, policy debates, UK, uncertainty, United States

Policy uncertainty and the stalled recovery

Nicholas Bloom, Scott Baker, Steven J. Davis, 22 October 2011

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The most striking thing about recent stock-market volatility is that politicians are making the news. Policymaker actions and statements about bailouts, budgets and regulatory reforms are driving the stock-market gyrations (Calvo 2009).

Topics: Macroeconomic policy, Politics and economics
Tags: global crisis, policy uncertainty, uncertainty

Drawing a line under Europe’s crisis

Barry Eichengreen, 17 June 2010

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Financial crises feed on uncertainty. The longer uncertainty is allowed to linger, the greater the damage to confidence and the more difficult it becomes to repair. It is essential therefore that European policymakers move decisively to draw a line under the crisis.

Topics: EU institutions
Tags: Eurozone crisis, Eurozone rescue, transparency, uncertainty

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