The recent rapid growth in the production of unconventional oil and gas (shale gas and tight oil) in the US has led to a significant decrease of natural gas prices as well as reduced oil imports. This has raised questions about the impacts of the unconventional oil and gas revolution on the US macroeconomy, industrial competitiveness, and energy sector.
Economic analysis of the US unconventional oil and gas revolution
Mathilde Mathieu, Thomas Spencer, Oliver Sartor, 22 March 2014
Do food prices respond to oil-price shocks?
Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, 30 November 2013
Increases in agricultural commodity prices and food prices in recent years have raised concerns among policymakers about a global food shortage.
Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation
Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 15 November 2013
“Prior to the recent deep worldwide recession, macroeconomists of all schools took a negative relation between slack and declining inflation as an axiom. Few seem to have awakened to the recent experience as a contradiction to the axiom.” (Bob Hall, 2013.)
Asymmetric oil: Fuel for conflict
Francesco Caselli, Massimo Morelli, Dominic Rohner, 19 July 2013
"These acts are tailored in a very systematic way by the Chinese side with the aim to turn undisputed areas into disputed areas".
Vietnamese spokeswoman Nguyen Phuong Nga, following the 9 June 2011 incident where a Chinese fishing boat rammed the survey cables of the PetroVietnam ship.
Simon Commander, Alexander Plekhanov, 29 January 2013
Russia aims to diversify its economy, thereby moving away from its dependence on oil and gas. Despite much political rhetoric, our research (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 2012) indicates that, to date, relatively little has been achieved. Oil and gas still account for nearly 70% of total merchandise exports and around a half of the federal budget.
Financialisation in oil markets: Lessons for policy
Bassam Fattouh, Lavan Mahadeva, 21 December 2012
In the last decade, purely financial players with no interest in the physical commodity, such as hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies and retail investors, have become more prominent in oil futures and derivatives markets.
Managing and harnessing volatile oil windfalls: Three funds, three countries and three stories
Ton van den Bremer, Rick van der Ploeg, 14 December 2012
Many countries experience substantial revenue windfalls from natural resources. The consensus is that these should not be consumed immediately but put in a fund, typically a sovereign wealth fund, in order to smooth the benefits across generations and deal with the otherwise adverse effects of Dutch disease and the resource curse. But should they? And if so, why?
Oil price risk, expropriation and bilateral investment treaties
Johannes Stroebel, Arthur van Benthem, 21 October 2012
The sharp increase in the oil price between 2003 and 2008 brought back a phenomenon commonly observed in the 1960s and 1970s. Countries are expropriating assets of independent oil companies – directly with large unexpected windfall taxes. Countries with recent expropriations include Bolivia, Ecuador, Algeria, Russia, China and Venezuela.
Do oil prices help forecast US real GDP? The role of non-linearities and asymmetries
Lutz Kilian, 29 June 2012
There has been much interest since the 1970s in the question of whether lagged oil price changes help forecast US real GDP growth (Hamilton 2009). This question has taken on new urgency following the large fluctuations in the price of oil in recent years.
Greasing the wheel: Oil’s role in the global crisis
Lucas Chancel, Thomas Spencer, 16 May 2012
Between January 2002 and August 2008, the nominal oil price rose from $19.7 to $133.4 a barrel. This led to a large increase in oil revenues for oil exporters and a deterioration of the current account for oil importers (Figure 1). Between 2002 and 2006, net capital outflows from oil exporters grew by 348%, becoming the largest global source of net capital outflows in 2006 (McKinsey 2007).
- Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBookTeulings, Baldwin
- Can large primary surpluses solve Europe’s debt problem?Eichengreen, Panizza
- The unrecognised benefits of grade inflationBoleslavsky, Cotton
- The US manufacturing base is surprisingly strongMoran, Oldenski
- Italian growth: New recession or six-year decline?Frankel
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
- Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A new modelKrugman